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Public safety agencies can allocate resources without predictive-policing software by diagnosing specific recurring problems, working with residents and partner organizations, and choosing responses suited to the causes they identify. Problem-oriented policing (POP), often organized through the SARA process—scanning, analysis, response and assessment—is the clearest operational alternative. It is an approach to deciding what to do, not a replacement software package.
Other options include community-oriented and procedural-justice approaches, place-based interventions such as hot-spots policing, focused deterrence, and public-health or social-service responses. No single option is established as best for every agency or problem. Compare them on outcomes, equity, community legitimacy, implementation demands and governance—not just on whether they can rank locations or people.
What can agencies use instead of predictive-policing software?
Agencies can use a problem-solving process to understand a recurring harm, then select a targeted mix of policing, environmental, regulatory, community or social-service responses. This shifts the decision from “What does a prediction rank?” to “What is happening, why, and which response is proportionate and likely to help?”
The alternatives are not all substitutes of the same kind. POP is an overarching method for diagnosing and addressing problems; community-oriented policing changes how agencies work with residents; and hot-spots or focused deterrence are intervention types that may be selected after diagnosis. Public-health and social-service responses may address causes that police action alone cannot resolve.
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- For recurring crime or disorder: use POP and SARA to guide diagnosis, response and evaluation.
- Where trust and cooperation matter: incorporate community participation and procedural fairness.
- For a diagnosed place-based or person-focused issue: consider targeted interventions with transparent, lawful criteria and outcome evaluation.
- Where underlying needs are prominent: consider community, public-health or social-service resources, including instead of a policing response.
These approaches can be combined. For example, POP can structure the diagnosis and assessment, while a place-based tactic or social-service partnership supplies part of the response. The key distinction is that an intervention follows from an analysis of a defined problem; a ranking or score is not itself a diagnosis, a finding of wrongdoing or proof that a particular response is warranted.
How does problem-oriented policing work?
Problem-oriented policing addresses a specific recurring problem through analysis and a tailored response, rather than treating a broad category or risk score as sufficient reason to act. The College of Policing describes its four SARA stages as scanning, analysis, response and assessment.
Scanning: define the problem
Identify a specific pattern of crime or disorder that warrants attention. Work with residents and relevant partners to establish what harm is occurring, where it is occurring, who is affected and how the problem is experienced. A useful problem definition is narrow enough to investigate and assess; a general label alone may conceal different causes and different needs.
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Scanning is also a chance to check whether an apparent pattern is a shared concern or mainly an artifact of the records available to the agency. Community accounts and partner knowledge can surface harms, unmet needs or service gaps that incident data alone do not explain. The resulting definition should make clear whose problem is being addressed and what would count as meaningful improvement.
Analysis: investigate causes and context
Examine the circumstances associated with the problem before choosing a response. Depending on the issue, that may mean looking at places and times, repeat victimisation, environmental conditions, existing services and gaps in support. Analysis should help distinguish a recurring mechanism from a pattern that is merely visible in available records.
Data can inform this work without being converted into a prediction of future offending. Agencies still need to consider whether their information is sufficiently complete and reliable for the question being asked, and whether relevant community or partner knowledge is missing. A pattern in agency data should be treated as a lead for investigation, not as an unquestioned account of the problem or its causes.
Analysis should also connect the stated problem to the response choices under consideration. If the concern is concentrated in a particular place, assess whether conditions at that place help explain it. If repeat victimisation or service gaps are part of the picture, those features may call for a different mix of actions. The aim is to avoid selecting a familiar tactic simply because it is available, rather than because the diagnosis supports it.
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Response: match action to the diagnosis
Choose a response—or coordinated set of responses—that addresses the causes identified. The College of Policing’s toolkit describes POP as applicable to crime or disorder problems and says it should be used with specific interventions, not as a substitute for them. In practice, a response might combine police activity with environmental, regulatory, community, public-health or social-service measures where appropriate.
Before acting, make the connection between the analysis and each proposed measure explicit: what condition is the measure intended to change, who is responsible for it, and what result is expected? If more than one organization is involved, clarify roles and commitments rather than assuming that partners have the capacity to deliver. Tailoring means the response can vary by diagnosed problem; it does not mean every proposed measure is justified simply because it is part of a multi-agency plan.
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Assessment: check effects and adapt
Assess whether the intervention changed the problem and whether it created unintended effects. Decide measures before deployment, then look at the stated objectives as well as equity, legitimacy, displacement to nearby places and whether benefits or harms spread beyond the immediate target. If an intervention is not working as intended, revise it or stop it rather than treating continuation as automatic.
Evaluation should distinguish the intended outcome from the activity delivered. A count of deployments, referrals or meetings may describe implementation, but it does not by itself show whether crime, disorder or harm changed. Likewise, a change in one target measure should be considered alongside displacement, diffusion of benefits, repeat victimisation and community experience. Setting these questions in advance makes it easier to notice when a response is ineffective, harmful or no longer suited to the problem.
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What does it take to implement POP sustainably?
A SARA worksheet or analytic method alone is not enough. The College of Policing’s 2023 implementation guidance says sustainable problem-oriented policing requires governance, organisational infrastructure and capability, and partnerships.
- Governance: establish who can approve a response, who is accountable for its effects and how decisions are reviewed.
- Staff capability: provide time and skills for analysis, response planning and assessment, rather than treating problem solving as an add-on without capacity.
- Partnerships: involve organizations that can contribute to understanding or addressing the problem, with clear roles and responsibilities.
- Resources: account for the staffing, training, partner commitments and follow-through required to sustain the intervention.
- Assessment: maintain the ability to examine results and unintended effects, then use those findings to change course.
These requirements matter when comparing POP with a software purchase. POP does not eliminate costs or workload; its resource demands may include analyst time, staff training, supervision, partner funding and ongoing assessment. A comparison should account for the maintenance and staffing required by any option, as well as the opportunity cost: what other work or services may be delayed if those resources are committed here? Costs will depend on the local response and capacity, so a single price comparison cannot answer whether an approach is sustainable for a particular agency.
The College’s guidance also quotes Chief Constable Lauren Poultney, NPCC Lead for Problem Solving: “Evidence shows us that problem-solving activity has a positive impact in reducing crime and disorder. It also shows that working with communities and partners to solve problems improves public confidence.” This is an attributed summary of evidence, not a promise about the result of any particular local program.
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Community-oriented and procedural-justice approaches add goals that a prediction system may not measure well: participation, collective efficacy, fair treatment and trust. The National Academies places them within a community-based approach that emphasizes community participation, collective efficacy and how police interact with residents.
These approaches can shape both how an agency identifies a problem and how it responds. Residents may help describe harms that agency data do not capture, identify service gaps, or explain how a proposed intervention could affect daily life. Procedural justice focuses attention on the fairness of police-resident interactions, not simply on whether an intervention changes a recorded crime measure.
Participation should have a practical role in decision-making rather than being limited to announcing a completed plan. Agencies can explain what problem they are addressing, invite input on the proposed response and its safeguards, and provide a way for residents to raise concerns or report effects. Feedback can inform assessment and revision, while clear public explanations help people understand the objectives and boundaries of an intervention.
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An OJP literature review reports outcome evidence supporting community-oriented and problem-oriented interventions for reducing crime and disorder. It also notes that outcomes such as collective efficacy, legitimacy and fear of crime are often overlooked or poorly defined. Agencies should therefore define these measures explicitly if they want to evaluate them; a general goal of “building trust” is not, by itself, a measurable evaluation plan.
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When are place-based or focused interventions appropriate?
Place-based and person-focused tactics may be considered after an agency diagnoses a particular problem. Their use should be tied to transparent, legally compliant criteria and an evaluation of the intervention itself; a score or ranking should not be treated as proof that a person will offend.
| Approach | Focus | How to use it responsibly |
|---|---|---|
| Hot-spots policing | Places | Use as a targeted response to a diagnosed place-based problem, with stated objectives and assessment of effects. |
| CCTV | Places | Consider within a place-based approach, and assess the intervention rather than assuming its presence establishes effectiveness. |
| Focused deterrence | People or groups, depending on the program | Use transparent, legally compliant criteria and evaluate the response; do not treat a predictive score as proof of future offending. |
| Repeat-offender programs | People | Define the program’s criteria and safeguards, and assess its outcomes and effects. |
This taxonomy reflects the National Academies’ distinction between place-based approaches, including hot-spots policing and CCTV, and person-focused approaches, including focused deterrence and repeat-offender programs. It does not establish that one tactic is suitable for every problem or that these interventions are interchangeable.
When comparing tactics, ask whether the problem is genuinely place-based or person-focused, and whether the proposed intervention follows from the diagnosis. Consider crime or disorder reduction, harm prevention, response time and repeat victimisation alongside possible displacement to nearby places or diffusion of benefits beyond the target. Assess equity, transparency and community legitimacy too. Selecting a tactic because a model identifies a location or person reverses this process: the intervention needs its own rationale, safeguards and evaluation.
When should agencies consider community or public-health resources?
When analysis points to causes or needs that police action cannot adequately address, agencies should consider involving community resources, public-health interventions or social services. The U.S. Department of Justice’s 2024 AI and Criminal Justice report recommends broadly considering such resources to address root causes, in addition to or instead of a policing response.
This does not mean every problem has a non-police solution, or that partners can be assumed to have capacity. Agencies need to identify which organization is equipped to respond, agree on responsibilities and resources, and avoid referring people to services that cannot meet the need. In the SARA process, these considerations belong in response planning and in the assessment of whether the chosen response was feasible and effective.
For procurement and planning, the same principle applies: do not assume a new technology is the only way to improve resource allocation. Compare it with a tailored response that may involve existing staff, community organizations or public services. A credible comparison includes partner funding and coordination requirements, not only an agency’s direct expenditure, and asks whether each proposed option addresses the identified harm.
How should an agency choose among alternatives?
Start with the diagnosed problem, not with a preferred product or tactic. Compare possible responses using the same criteria so decision-makers can see not only what an option might achieve, but also what information, safeguards and sustained effort it requires.
| Comparison question | What to examine |
|---|---|
| Problem fit | Does the approach address a diagnosed recurring problem, or mainly rank places or people? |
| Evidence and outcomes | What will be measured: crime or disorder, harm prevention, response time, repeat victimisation, displacement or diffusion of effects? |
| Legitimacy and equity | How will the agency involve the community, assess procedural fairness and disparate impact, explain decisions and respond to feedback? |
| Implementation | Are analyst skills, supervision, partner capacity, data quality, training and assessment resources available? |
| Governance | Can the public understand the approach? Are there audit access, retention rules, procurement controls and ways to correct errors? |
| Cost and sustainability | What staffing, training, partner funding and maintenance are required, and what other work will those demands displace? |
It helps to make the comparison concrete before choosing an approach. For each option, record the diagnosed problem it is intended to address, the evidence and expected outcomes, who will carry it out, what safeguards apply, what data or feedback will be reviewed, and when a decision to revise or stop will be made. This gives decision-makers a common basis for comparing a software proposal with operational and community-based responses.
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Governance questions matter whether the agency uses technology or a non-predictive intervention. Ask what can be explained to the public, who can review decisions and outcomes, how records will be retained, how procurement requirements preserve access to auditing, and how errors or complaints can be corrected. These are not merely technical details: they affect whether a program can be scrutinized and whether the agency can learn from its effects.
These criteria apply whether an agency is considering a non-predictive intervention or evaluating a predictive tool it already uses. The DOJ’s 2024 report recommends impact assessment, independent third-party auditing, routine database audits and periodic reevaluation for predictive systems that remain in use. It also recommends considering community resources and social services to address root causes. These safeguards do not make a predictive tool necessary; they establish issues an agency should address if it retains one.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What should an implementation plan include?
A practical plan makes the diagnosis, proposed response and means of evaluation explicit before deployment. Use this sequence to turn a general concern into a reviewable decision.
- Define the harm with residents and partners. Agree on the recurring problem, who experiences it and what outcome would count as improvement.
- Scan and analyze the conditions. Examine causes, places, times, repeat victimisation and service gaps relevant to the problem. Identify limitations in the available information.
- Select a tailored response. Match police action, if any, with environmental, regulatory, public-health, social-service or community measures indicated by the analysis.
- Publish objectives and safeguards. Set out responsibilities, decision criteria, protections and measures before the response begins, so the approach can be understood and scrutinized.
- Assess and adapt. Review outcomes, unintended effects, equity, legitimacy and displacement. Revise or discontinue interventions that do not meet their objectives.
The sequence is useful because it connects resource decisions to a reviewable rationale. A plan can identify which partners are responsible, what resources they have committed, what measures will be tracked, and how the agency will respond to evidence of unintended effects. If those commitments or measures cannot be specified, the agency may not yet be ready to deploy the intervention or judge its results.
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What are the limits of the evidence?
No single cross-strategy statistic establishes that one alternative always outperforms predictive policing. The strongest supported point is that POP has a substantial evidence base, while community outcomes such as collective efficacy, legitimacy and fear of crime need clearer definition and better measurement.
Evidence about an intervention should not be confused with evidence that a prediction system can select the right targets for it. Agencies should evaluate the intervention they actually implement, record how it was selected and applied, and examine outcomes—including possible displacement, disparate effects and community experience—rather than relying on a tool’s ranking as its own validation.
Results also depend on implementation. An approach that requires partnerships, analysis and sustained follow-up cannot be judged solely by its name. Agencies should consider whether they can provide the governance, capability and resources needed to carry it out and assess it fairly.
There is also a measurement challenge: outcomes that matter to residents may not be captured by the same records used to track crime and disorder. Defining legitimacy, collective efficacy and fear of crime in advance helps make these goals visible in the evaluation rather than leaving them as broad aspirations. Agencies should be cautious about drawing sweeping conclusions from a single measure or assuming a result will transfer unchanged to a different local problem.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Can an agency use crime data without predictive-policing software?
Yes. Data can help describe and analyze a specific problem without assigning a predictive score to a place or person. Agencies should still check data quality and consider which experiences or service gaps their records may not capture.
Does problem-oriented policing require a dedicated software system?
No. POP is an organizational strategy and analytic method, not a single software product. Its effectiveness depends on the agency’s ability to support analysis, governance, partnerships and assessment.
What should police measure besides recorded crime?
Agencies can define measures for community outcomes such as legitimacy, collective efficacy and fear of crime, alongside crime, disorder and harm measures. The OJP review notes that these community outcomes are often overlooked or poorly defined.
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Ownership alone does not establish that a tool is useful or appropriate. The DOJ’s 2024 report recommends impact assessment, independent auditing, database-quality audits and periodic reevaluation for predictive systems that remain in use.
How can an agency allocate resources without algorithmic predictions?
Use a problem-solving process to identify recurring harms, examine causes and service gaps, then choose and assess a tailored response. SARA—scanning, analysis, response and assessment—offers a structure for that work.
Are hot-spots policing and focused deterrence alternatives to predictive software?
They can be considered as targeted interventions after local diagnosis. Hot-spots policing is place-focused; focused deterrence is person- or group-focused depending on the program. Agencies should use transparent, legally compliant criteria and evaluate effects rather than treating a score as proof of future offending.
What should an agency compare before buying a predictive-policing system?
Compare problem fit, expected outcomes, equity and legitimacy, implementation capacity, governance and full sustainability needs. Include analyst time, training, partner capacity, data quality, audit access, retention rules and the opportunity cost of committing resources.
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Agencies do not need predictive rankings to make evidence-informed resource decisions. A defined problem, a tailored response, meaningful community and partner involvement, and pre-planned assessment provide a practical alternative. Compare approaches on effectiveness, equity, legitimacy, governance and the resources needed to sustain them—and revise or stop interventions that do not meet their objectives.
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