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SpaceX shares surged after the company reported a sharp third-quarter earnings beat on October 20, 2026, and investors also reacted to news that SpaceX and Tesla had formed special committees to discuss a possible merger. The earnings report was the central catalyst: revenue climbed 161% year over year to $14.58 billion, the company swung to a $4.4 billion profit, and adjusted earnings per share beat analysts’ estimate. The reported move depends on when it was measured: shares were up 11.9% at 10:10 a.m. ET on October 21, then finished the day up 7.8%.
What caused SpaceX shares to jump after earnings?
The main driver was a much stronger-than-expected quarter, with growth and profitability arriving together. Reuters reported that third-quarter revenue reached $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier, while net income was $4.4 billion compared with a $1.1 billion loss in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were 45 cents, versus analysts’ 13-cent estimate.
That is a 32-cent-per-share beat against the cited estimate. The profit reversal also gave investors evidence that SpaceX’s fast-growing businesses were translating into earnings, not just higher sales. The company’s results mattered beyond the headline revenue figure: they showed both a large expansion in the business and a substantial change in its reported bottom line.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsHow much did SpaceX shares rise?
The reported percentage varies by timestamp, not because the figures necessarily conflict. The Motley Fool reported an 11.9% gain at 10:10 a.m. ET on October 21, 2026; Reuters reported a 7.8% gain at that day’s close. The intraday figure captures the share move at one point during trading, while the closing figure reflects where the session ended.
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That distinction matters when comparing headlines about a volatile trading day. The figures describe the October 21 reaction to results reported on October 20; they are not a current quote or a measure of performance after that session.
Was the rally because of AI revenue or the Tesla merger?
Both helped the story, but they were different kinds of catalysts. The earnings report supplied measurable operating results, while the merger news introduced a possibility that remains uncertain.
AI was the largest revenue business
Reuters reported third-quarter AI revenue of $7.56 billion, making AI SpaceX’s largest business by revenue. The reported model relies heavily on renting data-center capacity to developers, including Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI. Based on the reported AI and total-revenue figures, AI accounted for a little over half of quarterly revenue.
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That scale helps explain why the results resonated with investors focused on artificial intelligence. Reuters also said the report improved appetite for AI-linked stocks and supported Tesla and other technology shares. However, revenue size alone does not establish how durable or profitable the AI business will be: data-center infrastructure requires substantial capital spending.
Merger discussions added speculation, not a completed transaction
Elon Musk said SpaceX and Tesla had formed special committees to discuss a possible union. Reuters quoted him saying, “I think it would be a good idea, but it’s really up to the special committees of both companies.” The committees’ discussions do not mean a merger has been agreed or will happen.
That makes the possible deal a different type of catalyst from the earnings beat. Investors can evaluate reported sales and profit for the quarter; a merger remains an event that may or may not proceed. The possibility may have added excitement to the trading reaction, but it should not be treated as a completed corporate action.
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Is Starlink still driving SpaceX profits?
Yes. Although AI became the largest business by revenue, the Associated Press reported that Starlink remained SpaceX’s biggest profit generator. Starlink had 13.6 million subscribers, above the 12.19 million analysts expected, according to Reuters.
Subscriber growth is only part of the picture. Average monthly revenue per Starlink subscriber was $69 in the third quarter, down from $99 in 2023 as lower-priced international plans expanded. That combination points to a trade-off: wider reach and more subscribers, alongside lower average revenue per customer. The available figures do not establish how much the change in average revenue affected Starlink’s profit.
Which parts of the rally look most durable?
The quarter’s revenue, profit and subscriber totals describe reported performance; their future contribution depends on whether the businesses can sustain growth and manage costs. Merger speculation, by contrast, can affect sentiment without producing a transaction. The distinction is useful when assessing what would need to continue for the operating results—not just the day’s excitement—to support investor expectations.
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| Factor | What the report showed | What remains uncertain |
|---|---|---|
| Third-quarter earnings | $14.58 billion in revenue, up 161% year over year; $4.4 billion net income versus a $1.1 billion year-ago loss; adjusted EPS of 45 cents versus a 13-cent estimate. | Whether this level of growth and profitability can be sustained. |
| AI and data centers | $7.56 billion in third-quarter AI revenue, the company’s largest revenue business. | Capital requirements and the future operating economics of the business. |
| Starlink | 13.6 million subscribers, above the 12.19 million analyst expectation; largest profit generator. | How lower average monthly revenue per subscriber affects future performance as lower-priced international plans expand. |
| Possible Tesla merger | Special committees at both companies were formed to discuss a union. | Whether discussions lead to an agreed transaction at all. |
What risks could temper the optimism?
The report also leaves meaningful execution questions. AI infrastructure requires heavy capital spending, so the revenue growth should be considered alongside the cost of building and operating that capacity. For Starlink, the reported average monthly revenue per subscriber has fallen as the service expands into lower-priced international markets.
Reuters and the Associated Press also identified Starship’s readiness as a risk: it had not entered commercial service. And while merger discussions attracted attention, they may end without a deal. These issues do not erase the quarter’s results, but they are reasons not to read one strong report or one sharp share-price move as proof that every growth plan is assured.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do reports give different percentages for the SpaceX stock move?
A share price can change during a trading session, so an intraday snapshot and the closing figure are different measurements. Check the stated time and date before treating two reported percentages as contradictory.
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Does a big revenue beat guarantee SpaceX will keep growing?
No. A single quarter shows what the company reported for that period, not what it will earn in future quarters. Investors still have to weigh operating costs, capital needs and whether growth continues.
Did SpaceX and Tesla agree to merge?
The reported development was that special committees were formed to discuss a possible union. That is not an announcement that the companies have agreed to a merger.
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