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Yes—under the conditions tested, AI chatbots were substantially more likely to recommend an option when it was described as preserving the current situation than when the identical trade-off required a change. A 2026 University of Waterloo study found 7.5 times higher odds of a recommendation under status-quo framing. In its controlled policy scenarios, models said “yes” about 70% of the time for plans already in place, versus 34% for equivalent new plans.
That result describes prompts and models in an experiment, not every chatbot conversation. It does not show that users followed the advice, changed policy, bought a product, or caused additional emissions. It does show why asking for a recommendation without testing the alternative can make “keep things as they are” sound safer or more reasonable than the evidence warrants.
What did the study actually find?
The peer-reviewed paper, “Large language models exhibit status quo bias in climate-relevant advice,” was written by Seth Wynes, Aarya Shah, and Victoria Milardović and published in Environmental Research Communications in 2026 (DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/aea1eb). The researchers tested whether changing only the framing of an option changed a model’s recommendation.
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Across the project, the team evaluated 7,548 queries involving vehicle purchases, recipes, home heating, and climate-relevant policy trade-offs. Those queries generated 54,888 prompts across 11 large language models. The central comparison used policy scenarios in which the same option was either presented as already in place or as a proposed change.
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When the option was described as maintaining existing conditions, the models’ odds of recommending it were 7.5 times higher than when the same option was described as a change. In the policy scenarios, the models answered “yes” roughly 70% of the time for plans already in place and 34% of the time for new plans.
The practical finding is narrow but important: continuity itself influenced the recommendation, even when the underlying trade-off did not change.
How was status-quo framing tested?
Controlled policy comparisons
The strongest evidence came from paired policy prompts. Researchers held the substantive choice constant and varied whether it represented the status quo or a departure from it. This design is useful because it isolates framing more directly than a broad question such as “What is the best climate policy?”
The reported 7.5 figure is an odds ratio. It compares the odds of a recommendation in two framing conditions; it does not mean that models gave the status-quo answer 7.5 times as often in every task. The 70% and 34% figures are study averages for the tested policy prompts, not a universal pass rate for chatbots.
Consumer recommendation scenarios
The researchers also examined advice about vehicles, recipes, and home heating. These scenarios showed related patterns, but they were less direct tests of framing than the controlled policy comparison because the choices themselves and their contextual details varied.
The University of Waterloo’s coverage notes that regional adoption patterns affected electric-vehicle recommendations. Even so, the recommendations remained below real-world adoption rates in the locations considered. That observation suggests that a model’s answer cannot be treated as a simple mirror of what people in a region already do.
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| Evidence type | What changed | What it measured | How directly it isolates framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Controlled policy trade-offs | Whether the same option was existing or proposed | Recommendation odds and “yes” rates | Highest; the substantive trade-off was held constant |
| Vehicle, recipe, and heating scenarios | Consumer context and recommendation choices | Patterns in model advice, including regional effects | Lower; scenarios were not only a single framing swap |
What do “7.5 times higher odds” and “70% versus 34%” mean?
Suppose two sets of prompts describe an identical policy. In one set, the policy is already operating; in the other, it is a proposed change. The models were much more likely to recommend the first framing. “7.5 times higher odds” summarizes that relative difference after accounting for the study’s prompt comparisons.
Odds are not the same as percentages. If an event has probability p, its odds are p divided by 1 − p. An odds ratio therefore cannot be read as “the model was 750% more likely” or as a guarantee that any individual chatbot will answer one way. The separate 70% and 34% figures provide an easier-to-read description of the average “yes” rates in the controlled policy set.
Both statistics should be kept with their qualifications: they come from the researchers’ prompts, the 11 models they selected, and the conditions of a 2026 experiment. Different system instructions, model updates, safety layers, retrieval tools, or user context could change an answer.
Why can a chatbot’s wording make continuity sound better?
The experiment demonstrates an effect but does not prove a single internal cause. Several features of ordinary language may make the status quo feel like the lower-risk choice:
- Defaults imply prior approval. If a plan is already in place, a model may interpret that fact as evidence that someone has evaluated it or that implementation barriers have been overcome.
- Change introduces visible uncertainty. A proposed action invites questions about cost, disruption, and unintended effects, while those same issues can disappear from view when the current arrangement is treated as the baseline.
- Training text contains continuity signals. Public writing often describes existing institutions and practices as normal, while proposed reforms are discussed with caveats. A language model may reproduce those associations.
- Users often ask for a single recommendation. Without an explicit request to compare alternatives, the model may optimize for a plausible, low-conflict answer rather than expose the assumptions that favor staying put.
These are reasonable interpretations of why framing could matter, not mechanisms that the study directly measured. The paper tested response patterns, not the models’ hidden reasoning or training-data pathways.
Does this create a climate problem?
It can create a decision risk because many existing energy, transport, and heating systems are high-emitting. If a chatbot treats “already in place” as a reason to recommend continuation, that preference can make lower-emission changes appear unusually difficult or premature.
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However, the study did not measure real-world emissions caused by chatbot advice. It did not establish that people acted on the recommendations, that governments changed policy because of them, or that any particular model increased emissions. The defensible conclusion is about the advice pattern: status-quo framing can influence recommendations in climate-relevant choices.
For an individual decision, the implication is to separate two questions: “What is operating now?” and “Which option performs best under the goals and constraints I care about?” A current arrangement may be the right answer, but its existence should not count as evidence by itself.
How can I ask a chatbot for less status-quo-biased advice?
You cannot assume a prompt removes the effect, because this study did not prove a remedy. You can, however, structure the conversation so that continuity and change receive comparable scrutiny.
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- Request a symmetric comparison. Ask the model to evaluate keeping the current plan and adopting the proposed plan against the same criteria, with a table of benefits, costs, uncertainties, and reversibility.
- Ask it to identify default assumptions. Have it list which facts are being treated as evidence merely because they describe the present arrangement.
- Request the strongest case for change. Seth Wynes, a professor in the University of Waterloo Faculty of Environment, suggested asking a chatbot to “make the case for doing something new.” This is a researcher’s practical suggestion, not an intervention shown by the study to eliminate bias.
- Run a counterfactual prompt. Ask what recommendation it would give if the proposed option were already in place and the current option were the new alternative. Compare the two answers for changes in reasoning, not just the final verdict.
- Verify consequential claims. For medical, legal, financial, infrastructure, or public-policy decisions, check the cited evidence and consult a qualified professional or decision-maker. A fluent answer is not an independent assessment.
A reusable prompt can be written as: Compare keeping [current option] with adopting [alternative]. Use the same criteria for both. Do not treat the current option as evidence of effectiveness. List assumptions, uncertainties, transition costs, long-term effects, and what evidence would change your recommendation. Then make the strongest case for doing something new.
What does the study say about cars, recipes, and heating?
Those consumer cases broaden the scope beyond policy, showing that the pattern was not confined to one type of question. The evidence is still more observational than the paired policy test: the scenarios involved recommendations in several domains rather than a single controlled wording change for every choice.
For vehicles, the study considered regional adoption patterns in its prompts. The university’s summary reports that those patterns influenced recommendations, while the recommendations remained below real-world adoption rates in the regions examined. That result cautions against assuming that a model automatically tracks local behavior or that a regional statistic guarantees a model’s answer.
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Recipes and home-heating choices demonstrate why apparently small wording choices can matter. A request to preserve a familiar setup can foreground convenience and disruption; a request to compare outcomes from a clean slate can foreground efficiency, cost over time, or environmental effects. The model’s output still depends on the details supplied by the user.
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What can this research not tell us?
- It does not show that every chatbot favors the status quo in every setting.
- It does not rank the 11 tested models or establish that one model is consistently more biased than another.
- It does not provide enough public detail to independently audit every model version, collection date, or extra system instruction used in consumer applications.
- It does not prove that the recommendation was factually wrong. A current plan can be superior; the concern is that its status may receive undue weight.
- It does not demonstrate that users followed the advice or that the advice caused purchases, policy changes, or measurable emissions.
- It does not establish that the suggested “make the case for doing something new” prompt reliably corrects the effect.
These boundaries matter because a prompt experiment measures what models say under designed conditions. It is evidence of susceptibility to framing, not a complete account of human decision-making or real-world climate outcomes.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should developers and organizations respond?
Test paired prompts
Evaluation teams can present the same decision twice: once with the incumbent option as the baseline and once with the alternative as the baseline. They should compare recommendation rates, stated reasons, uncertainty language, and requests for more information. A large difference in recommendations deserves investigation even when the factual content is unchanged.
Expose assumptions in the interface
Decision-support tools can ask users to define goals and constraints before revealing which option is current. They can also display both a “continue” and a “change” scenario, making transition costs and long-term effects visible in the same view.
Monitor updates and context
Model behavior can shift after a model update or when an application adds system instructions, retrieval, or a domain-specific policy. Organizations should preserve representative prompt sets, rerun them after changes, and record the model version and date so that a change in recommendation rates is interpretable.
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For decisions with public, financial, safety, or environmental consequences, a chatbot should support deliberation rather than silently select the default. Human reviewers need access to the underlying evidence, competing options, and reasons for rejecting a proposed change.
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What is the most defensible takeaway?
The University of Waterloo study provides controlled evidence that status-quo framing can materially shift large language model recommendations. The effect was large in the tested policy prompts—7.5 times higher odds, with “yes” answers averaging about 70% for existing plans and 34% for new ones—but those figures are not universal chatbot statistics.
Use a chatbot’s recommendation as one input, not as proof that the current arrangement is best. Present alternatives symmetrically, ask for the strongest case for change, inspect assumptions, and verify important claims before acting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is status-quo bias the same thing as a chatbot hallucination?
No. A hallucination is an invented or unsupported fact, while status-quo bias is a systematic shift in which option the model recommends when the framing changes. A chatbot can give factually accurate information and still weigh an existing option too favorably.
Could a chatbot recommend change too often instead?
Yes. The study identified a tendency under its tested conditions; it did not establish a permanent direction for every model, topic, or prompt. Different instructions, incentives, or application design could produce a preference for novelty or no consistent preference at all.
How should a government use this finding in a policy process?
Officials can treat chatbot output as a draft for questions, not as a policy appraisal. Any AI-assisted analysis should disclose the prompt and model version, compare incumbent and proposed policies under identical criteria, and undergo review against primary evidence and public consultation.
Does asking for both sides guarantee an unbiased answer?
No. A balanced prompt reduces one obvious source of anchoring but does not test factual accuracy, hidden assumptions, or the model’s weighting of criteria. Compare the evidence behind each claim and, for high-stakes choices, obtain an independent human assessment.
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