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Probably Stolen is the closest match if you want a cyberpunk shopkeeper sim that combines Papers, Please-style inspection with Recettear-style buying, haggling, crafting and debt pressure. You run a pixel-art store on a dystopian space station, decide which goods and customers are safe, and try to buy the shop before rising rent ends the run. It is not a first-person Cyberpunk 2077 adventure or a Moonlighter-style combat game.
The best alternatives depend on which part of that formula you want: Papers, Please for document scrutiny, Recettear for classic shop economics, Potionomics for negotiation depth, No Umbrellas Allowed for appraisal, and Moonlighter for shopkeeping joined to dungeon combat. The same-setting options are much thinner, with Ghost Receipt and Black Market Space Station Shop Simulator the nearest cyberpunk merchant concepts.
At a glance
| Name | Best for | Key spec | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probably Stolen | Cyberpunk station shopkeeping with moral choices | Buy, inspect, craft, haggle and resell under rising rent; nine starting paths in version 1.0 | Oct 2026 |
| Papers, Please | Booth inspection and reporting decisions | Approve, refuse or report people and documents; little conventional commerce | Oct 2026 |
| Recettear: An Item Shop’s Tale | Classic buy-sell-haggle shop economics | Market purchases, customer budgets, reputation, debt and dungeon sourcing | Oct 2026 |
| No Umbrellas Allowed | Appraising uncertain second-hand goods | Reveal an item’s true value while managing a shop and its stories | Oct 2026 |
| Potionomics | Negotiation and price psychology | Card-based haggling, vendor relationships and shop progression | Oct 2026 |
| Potion Craft | Making products before selling them | Free-form potion creation followed by customer sales | Oct 2026 |
| Moonlighter | Shopkeeping plus action combat | Run a shop by day and raid dungeons for stock by night | Oct 2026 |
| Ghost Receipt | Cyberpunk pawnshop atmosphere | Neon-city buying, selling and negotiation with item stories; demo available | Oct 2026 |
| Black Market Space Station Shop Simulator | A station general store under surveillance | Ex-con protagonist, sci-fi shopkeeping and black-market pressure | Oct 2026 |
What is Probably Stolen?
Probably Stolen – Cyberpunk Shopkeeper Sim is a single-player pixel-art management RPG from Montreal’s Questing Goose Studio, published by tinyBuild. Its Steam 1.0 release was 28 October 2026. You play a former scavenger who takes a loan to secure a Lower-Levels storefront on a vertically stratified space station. The objective is to earn enough to buy the shop outright before rent and electricity consume the business.
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The store’s merchandise has “flexible origins”: it may be legal, stolen, counterfeit, dangerous or somewhere in between. That premise makes every transaction a risk calculation rather than a simple inventory sale. Security officers may be looking for evidence, revolutionaries may need discreet help, and rogue AI-augmented hosts can appear human until their identifying signs are missed. The developer describes the game as a station business built on corruption and scarcity, while the Steam copy asks which kind of trouble you are willing to monetize.
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How does the Probably Stolen gameplay loop work?
The loop is a sequence of purchasing, checking, negotiating, producing and paying. It is closer to a pressure-cooker management RPG than to a free-roaming cyberpunk action game.
Inspect customers and merchandise
At the counter, you examine people, paperwork and goods, then choose whether to approve a sale, refuse it, report someone or look away. Cigarette packs need visual checks; water must be tested and filtered; weapons require permits and modifications; rare objects need appraisal; and chemicals use guarded recipes. Misreading an Aug or accepting suspicious stock can create consequences later, because faction activity and sales are recorded.
Buy low, sell into a budget and haggle
You buy stock against a changing market and sell to customers with limited budgets. Haggling can raise the immediate return but damage reputation, so the right price depends on both cash flow and future traffic. This is the part most recognisable to Recettear players: you are not merely taking orders, you are choosing what to acquire and how aggressively to price it.
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The game allows a legal-to-illegal spectrum. You can cut quality, relabel counterfeits, fence stolen goods, hide contraband or bribe an official. After closing, you can scavenge dumps, trade with other businesses and operate production chains involving water, hydroponics, chemistry, rats, organs, fish and guns. The resulting inventory is also a spatial puzzle, so storage decisions matter when the shop is crowded.
Survive the debt clock
Rent and electricity rise over time. Falling behind reduces store attractiveness and customer traffic, creating a feedback loop in which a bad week makes the next week harder. Night scavenging carries physical danger, and leaving the shop uses teleport-style location selection rather than a continuous 3D station walk; travel can cost the next day’s customers. Overnight theft is possible without alarms.
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Which starting paths are available in version 1.0?
The Steam page originally named six examples, but the developer’s 21 October 2026 launch announcement lists nine starting paths in 1.0. A review that mentions 12 appears to count three announced post-launch paths or to contain an error. Organ Trader, Junker and Street Food Vendor are announced for after launch, not part of the official nine at release.
| Path | Product line | Published complication |
|---|---|---|
| Apprentice | Generalist goods | Tutorial-style start with extra credit and household goods; no special trouble stated |
| Water Merchant | Water | Every batch must be tested and filtered; the launch Water Purifier balance was hotfixed |
| Fence | Stolen goods | Raids and the need to hide inventory from authorities |
| Rock Bottom | Nothing | Hardcore opening with no starting stock |
| Hydroponic Farmer | Crops | Starts with hydroponics and seeds, but with increased rent |
| Gunsmith | Weapons | Permits, modifications and inspections |
| Chemist | Chemicals | Addiction risks and guarded recipes |
| Rat Wrangler | Rats and meat | Community-described path; an official consequence was not published |
| Aquafarmer | Fish | Tilapia, eels, sturgeons and caviar; added in the 19 October demo update |
What games are most like Probably Stolen?
1. Papers, Please
This is the closest match for the inspection booth. Lucas Pope’s 2013 game makes you check documents, detect wanted people and decide whom to admit or report. Probably Stolen keeps that moral scrutiny but adds a complete economy, crafting, haggling and faction consequences. If your favourite moment is deciding whether a suspicious customer deserves mercy, start here; if you need buying and reselling, Probably Stolen goes much further.
2. Recettear: An Item Shop’s Tale
Recettear is the mechanical ancestor: purchase stock, read customer budgets, haggle over price, protect reputation and meet a debt deadline. Its other half is dungeon combat and loot collection, whereas Probably Stolen substitutes dump scavenging, suppliers and production chains. Tyrian Games reported more than 500,000 Steam copies by 2017, making it the reference point for the shopkeeper format.
3. No Umbrellas Allowed
Choose this for appraisal rather than action. The central question is what an incoming item is truly worth, and its stories and provenance affect the negotiation. Probably Stolen borrows that uncertainty for rare goods while adding broader station politics, contraband and manufacturing.
4. Potionomics
Potionomics offers the deepest modern emphasis on negotiation: card-based haggling, relationship building and deliberate price psychology. It is a better fit if you want every conversation to feel like a tactical sales encounter. Probably Stolen is wider, with inspections, crime, scavenging and multiple product industries instead of concentrating on one shop’s social economy.
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5. Potion Craft
Potion Craft is the cleaner “make, then sell” option. You experiment with recipes and serve customers without a dungeon-combat requirement. Probably Stolen’s chemistry and water systems echo that production-first rhythm, but its rent clock and law-and-faction consequences are much harsher.
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Moonlighter is the choice when combat is essential. You run a shop by day and raid dungeons for merchandise by night, the same broad two-phase structure associated with Recettear. Probably Stolen is not a combat game: its after-hours substitute is scavenging and production, while the pressure comes from legality, reputation and rent. Moonlighter had passed one million copies by May 2020, with most revenue coming from Nintendo Switch, according to Tyrian Games.
7. Ghost Receipt
Ghost Receipt – A Cyberpunk Pawnshop Simulator is the nearest neon-city premise. It focuses on buying, selling, negotiating and the stories attached to pawned items, with a demo available. It is not set on a space station, and its 10 November 2026 listing date means launch details may change.
8. Black Market Space Station Shop Simulator
This is the closest same-setting pitch: an ex-con runs a general store on a watched space station. Its tags overlap with shopkeeping, trading and science fiction. Public information is thinner than for Probably Stolen, so treat it as a premise match rather than an established mechanical equivalent.
How does Probably Stolen differ from a typical shop simulator?
| Design axis | Probably Stolen | Closest comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Counter work | Inspect people, documents and goods; approve, refuse, report or ignore | Papers, Please |
| Pricing | Customer budgets, haggling and reputation trade-offs | Recettear and Potionomics |
| Appraisal | Tests, permits and uncertain value for selected goods | No Umbrellas Allowed and Ghost Receipt |
| Stock supply | Suppliers, customer trades, dump scavenging and production | Moonlighter for the acquire-then-sell rhythm |
| Failure pressure | Rising rent, electricity, falling traffic and a shop-buyout goal | Recettear, Potionomics and debt-driven shop RPGs |
| Tone | Dystopian cyberpunk, faction intrigue and optional crime | Graveyard Keeper for grim business, but not the setting |
Is Probably Stolen a good fit for you?
- Choose it if you want one game to combine inspection, negotiation, crafting, inventory puzzles and a rising-rent deadline.
- Choose Papers, Please if document decisions and moral reporting matter more than commerce.
- Choose Recettear if you want the established buy-haggle-debt formula and can accept fantasy presentation and dungeon combat.
- Choose Potionomics if conversation-based price negotiation is your priority.
- Choose Potion Craft if you prefer a calmer production laboratory with sales attached.
- Choose Moonlighter if action combat and dungeon loot are non-negotiable.
- Choose Ghost Receipt if the cyberpunk pawnshop atmosphere matters more than the space-station setting.
What do launch reviews and sales figures show?
tinyBuild reported 200,000 copies sold in the first few hours, more than 86,000 peak concurrent players and more than 660,000 unique demo players. Steam Next Fest peak concurrency was nearly 40,000, and the publisher said the game had more than 500,000 wishlists before launch. Steam ranked the game second on its Global Top Sellers list at launch, according to 80 Level’s report citing Steam and SteamDB.
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At the Steam store check on 29 October 2026, 96% of 1,927 user reviews were rated Overwhelmingly Positive. Critical reactions are less uniform: TheBigBois scored it 8.6/10 and praised the balance of economic hustle and faction intrigue, while DualShockers scored it 6.5/10, citing repetition, reused NPC lines and a loop that can feel like retail work. Rock Paper Shotgun described the kiosk concept as promising but called the writing clipped and the soundtrack generic. These are different evaluations of the same design: depth and consequence for some players, repetition and friction for others.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What are the price, requirements and platform details?
The list price is $19.99, €19.99 or £16.99. A 10% introductory discount reduces the US price to $17.99 and the UK price to £15.29 through 11 November 2026; prices checked Oct 2026. The game is sold on Steam and IndieGala. A Supporter Edition bundles the soundtrack, and separate crossover bundles include Graveyard Keeper 2 and ReStory.
| Requirement or feature | Published detail |
|---|---|
| Operating system | Windows 10 x64 minimum |
| Processor | Intel Core i3 or equivalent |
| Memory | 8 GB RAM |
| Graphics | GTX 650 Ti equivalent; DirectX 10 |
| Storage | 1 GB |
| Input and mode | Keyboard and mouse; single-player only |
| Steam features | 21 achievements, Steam Cloud, Family Sharing, Workshop and mod support at 1.0 |
| Languages | English, German, Japanese, Russian, Simplified Chinese, French, Spanish (Spain) and Polish text/subtitles |
| Steam Deck | Playable, not Verified; small text, mixed icons and an imperfect default controller configuration are reported limitations |
| Other platforms | No Mac, Linux or console version was declared |
What changed after launch?
Hotfixes 1.0.0.1 and 1.0.0.2 landed on 28 October 2026. They addressed a reputation bug, ultrawide tooltips, a blackmail bug and the Water Purifier balance, including cheaper water equipment. The developers also announced new starting scenarios and an extension of the main story after 1.0. Workshop support is available at launch, and the soundtrack is a separate purchase featuring retrowave by A.L.I.S.O.N and M. Harvey Bee.
The demo was intended to end with the 1.0 release, and TheBigBois reported that demo saves carry into the full game. That makes the demo the lowest-risk way to discover whether the repetitive counter rhythm and rent pressure suit you before buying.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Probably Stolen have combat like Moonlighter?
No. You do not fight through dungeons as a regular part of the loop. After-hours play uses scavenging, production and risky travel, with reported incidents such as shooting rogue androids in the CPU rather than a full combat system.
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How many specializations are actually in Probably Stolen at launch?
The 1.0 announcement lists nine: Apprentice, Water Merchant, Fence, Rock Bottom, Hydroponic Farmer, Gunsmith, Chemist, Rat Wrangler and Aquafarmer. Three more—Organ Trader, Junker and Street Food Vendor—were announced for post-launch, which likely explains reports of 12.
Can I play Probably Stolen offline or with friends?
It is a single-player Steam game with no multiplayer mode listed. Steam Cloud and Family Sharing are supported, but the published platform information does not promise a separate offline entitlement.
Is Probably Stolen verified for Steam Deck?
Steam labels it Playable rather than Verified. Reports identify small text, mixed control icons and an incomplete default controller setup; a mouse-oriented controller template is described as the more reliable configuration.
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Does the game have a fixed rent curve or published recipe ratios?
No exact rent schedule, prices or recipe ratios were publicly stated in the available material. Expect those values to be learned in play and potentially adjusted by patches, especially after the launch Water Purifier rework.
Quick Recap
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