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To evaluate Palantir stock, assess the company’s growth and profit quality separately from the price investors are paying for them. The latest released results as of October 30, 2026, cover the quarter ended June 30; the $196.42 share price used here is the October 29 regular-session close, not a live quote. Those dated figures point to rapid growth and a demanding valuation, but they do not, by themselves, establish whether PLTR is a buy or a sell. This framework shows how to examine revenue, demand, margins, dilution, valuation, and risk without treating one strong quarter as a verdict.
| Metric | Reported figure | Period and context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.935 billion; up 93% year over year | Q2 2026, quarter ended June 30; Palantir Technologies earnings release |
| U.S. commercial revenue | $764 million; up 149% | Q2 2026; U.S.-only category, not the company’s entire commercial segment |
| U.S. government revenue | $809 million; up 90% | Q2 2026; U.S.-only category, not the company’s entire government segment |
| GAAP operating margin | 47% | Q2 2026; $912 million GAAP operating income |
| Adjusted operating margin | 62% | Q2 2026; $1.194 billion adjusted operating income |
| Cash from operations | $2.115 billion | First half of 2026; Palantir Technologies Form 10-Q |
What should you check before evaluating Palantir stock?
Start by fixing the dates and definitions of the figures you compare. Palantir’s quarterly release, its Form 10-Q, the share-price date, and management guidance do not all describe the same period or use the same measure.
At this cutoff, Palantir’s Q3 2026 results had not been released. The company scheduled its Q3 earnings release for November 2, 2026, after the U.S. market close; the outcome was therefore unknown on October 30. Palantir’s announcement gives the scheduled date. After the release, update the figures before relying on this snapshot.
Keep three categories separate in your notes:
- Reported results: historical figures for a clearly specified quarter, half-year, or fiscal year.
- Management guidance: a forecast, not revenue already earned.
- Market inputs: share price and shares outstanding, each with its own date and definition.
Also distinguish the business from its stock. Palantir sells Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and AIP, and generally recognizes subscription revenue over contract terms. Product adoption or fast-growing revenue can support a business case, but neither alone answers whether the shares are attractively priced. The company’s Form 10-Q describes its business and accounting policies; it also warns, “You should not rely upon forward-looking statements as predictions of future events.”
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How fast is Palantir’s revenue growing, and where is the growth coming from?
Q2 revenue growth was exceptionally high, but an investor should check where it came from, whether it is broadening, and whether it continues across reported periods. Do not treat a single quarter’s growth rate as an annual run rate.
Palantir reported $1.935 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, up 93% year over year. Its U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million, up 149%, and U.S. government revenue was $809 million, up 90%. These are U.S.-only categories; they are not the full worldwide commercial and government segments. The company’s Q2 earnings release reports the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
For the annual baseline, fiscal-2025 revenue was $4.475446 billion, compared with $2.865507 billion in fiscal 2024—approximately 56% annual growth. Fiscal-2025 government revenue was $2.402287 billion and commercial revenue was $2.073159 billion. These are worldwide segment figures, so they should not be directly conflated with the Q2 U.S.-only growth categories. The company’s fiscal-2025 annual filing provides the annual figures.
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- Whether U.S. commercial growth remains strong, and whether growth expands beyond a small number of large customers.
- Whether government revenue and renewals support growth, bearing in mind that government spending and contracting can change.
- Whether customer growth accompanies revenue growth. Palantir reported 1,049 customers for the trailing period ended June 30, 2026, versus 849 a year earlier. Its customer definition can count government agencies separately when they contract separately.
- Whether management’s forecast is met, exceeded, or revised. In August 2026, management forecast Q3 revenue of $2.160–$2.164 billion and full-year 2026 revenue of $8.150–$8.158 billion. It forecast more than $3.424 billion in full-year U.S. commercial revenue. These are guidance figures, not realized results.
The guidance is a useful yardstick for subsequent results, not a promise. The revenue and customer figures above appear in Palantir’s Q2 2026 earnings release.
Do Palantir’s contract and bookings figures guarantee future revenue?
No. Contract value, remaining deal value, and remaining performance obligations describe different kinds of demand or contracted work; they are not interchangeable and should not be added together as though they were guaranteed sales.
| Measure | Reported figure | What it indicates—and what it does not |
|---|---|---|
| Total contract value | $3.373 billion in Q2 2026 | Deal activity reported by Palantir; it is not a schedule of recognized revenue. |
| U.S. commercial remaining deal value | $6.238 billion | A company-reported commercial demand measure; broader deal value can include cancellable amounts or unexercised options. |
| Remaining performance obligations (RPO) | $4.9 billion at June 30, 2026 | Noncancelable contracted revenue, subject to the filing’s disclosure limitations; Palantir expected about 43% to be recognized over the next 12 months. |
The earnings release reports the contract-value and remaining-deal-value measures. The Form 10-Q describes RPO and its recognition expectations. RPO is more constrained than a broad deal-value measure, but it still does not mean the company has already received cash or that every future event is certain.
When comparing future reports, note each metric’s definition, the period it covers, cancellation exposure, and how much converts into recognized revenue. Changes in a bookings measure matter most when they are considered alongside conversion and revenue—not as a standalone proxy for either.
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How profitable is Palantir, and what does the Rule of 40 tell you?
Compare GAAP operating profit with the company’s adjusted figure. Palantir’s Q2 2026 GAAP operating income was $912 million, a 47% margin; adjusted operating income was $1.194 billion, a 62% margin.
Palantir’s reported 155% Rule of 40 adds 93% year-over-year revenue growth to its 62% adjusted operating margin. It is a company-defined, non-GAAP comparison. It is not a valuation measure, and it does not erase the difference between adjusted and GAAP results. The company reports both operating-income measures and its calculation in its earnings release.
For a useful comparison over time, record both margins consistently and investigate why they diverge. Adjusted measures exclude items included in GAAP results; the exact reconciliation in the company’s release tells you which exclusions apply. Avoid comparing one company’s adjusted margin with another company’s GAAP margin as if they were prepared on the same basis.
Does stock-based compensation dilute Palantir shareholders?
It can. Stock-based compensation is a noncash expense in the period it is recorded, but equity awards can increase the share count and reduce each existing shareholder’s proportional ownership if shares are issued.
Palantir recorded $265.209 million of stock-based compensation in Q2 2026, versus $159.971 million a year earlier. Dividing the Q2 figure by Q2 revenue gives about 13.7%. That calculation helps put the expense in context, but it does not by itself measure the future number of shares issued. The amounts are reported in the company’s Form 10-Q.
Q2 diluted weighted-average shares were 2.568694 billion, compared with 2.562912 billion a year earlier. A weighted-average share count used in earnings-per-share calculations is not necessarily the same as the point-in-time count used to estimate market capitalization. For a fuller dilution check, compare basic shares outstanding across filing dates and review outstanding awards and the company’s share-count disclosures. Don’t infer dilution solely from a single quarter’s diluted weighted-average count.
How strong are Palantir’s cash generation and balance sheet?
Look at cash from operations, capital spending, and the balance-sheet cash measures, while keeping each definition explicit. A simple calculation from reported cash flow can be informative, but it should not be mislabeled as a company-defined adjusted free-cash-flow measure.
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For the first half of 2026, Palantir reported $2.115332 billion of operating cash flow and $21.955 million of property-and-equipment purchases. Subtracting the latter from the former yields approximately $2.093 billion. This is an arithmetic operating-cash-flow-minus-capex calculation, not a claim about a separately defined adjusted free-cash-flow figure.
At June 30, cash and marketable securities totaled approximately $9.409 billion when calculated from the balance-sheet line items. Palantir separately highlighted $9.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasuries. Those totals use different definitions; identify which one you are using rather than combining them. The operating cash flow, purchases, and balance-sheet line items are in the company’s Form 10-Q.
Cash generation can support operations and provide financial flexibility, but it does not cancel out valuation risk or share dilution. When comparing cash with market value, use current, consistently defined figures rather than pairing a historical balance with a later share price and presenting the result as a current enterprise value.
How can you calculate Palantir’s valuation using dated figures?
A sales multiple is a way to describe the price investors are paying relative to revenue; it is not, on its own, a fair-value estimate. The illustration below uses inputs from different dates and should be read as a dated calculation, not a live market capitalization or a price target.
| Input or calculation | Figure | Date or basis |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $196.42 | October 29, 2026 regular-session close, reported by Stock Analysis; not a live October 30 quote |
| Class A shares outstanding | 2,300,713,329 | July 27, 2026 |
| Class B shares outstanding | 101,340,151 | July 27, 2026 |
| Illustrative common-equity value | Approximately $471.8 billion | $196.42 × (Class A + Class B shares) |
| 2026 guided revenue midpoint | $8.154 billion | Midpoint of August guidance range |
| Illustrative guided-sales multiple | Approximately 57.9× | Illustrative common-equity value divided by guided revenue midpoint |
| Trailing revenue | $6.155941 billion | Fiscal-2025 revenue − first-half-2025 revenue + first-half-2026 revenue |
| Illustrative trailing-sales multiple | Approximately 76.6× | Illustrative common-equity value divided by calculated trailing revenue |
The share counts are from Palantir’s Form 10-Q; the revenue guidance is in its earnings release. The fiscal-2025 revenue baseline is reported in the company’s annual filing. The trailing calculation uses fiscal-2025 revenue of $4.475446 billion, subtracts first-half-2025 revenue of $1.887552 billion, and adds first-half-2026 revenue of $3.568047 billion. That is arithmetic across filings, not a separately published company metric.
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How to refresh the calculation
- Get the latest share price and the latest point-in-time share counts. Record the date and share classes used.
- Multiply the price by the share count you have defined to estimate equity value. Explain exclusions rather than silently changing the count.
- Choose a clearly dated revenue denominator: trailing revenue for a historical comparison or management guidance for a forward-looking illustration. Label which one it is.
- Divide equity value by that revenue figure, and preserve the dates and assumptions beside the resulting multiple.
- For enterprise value, reconcile current cash, debt, and other relevant claims using consistent dates and definitions; do not call equity value enterprise value.
- Stress-test what happens to the multiple if revenue growth or margins slow. Do not assume unusually high growth continues indefinitely.
A high sales multiple increases sensitivity to a forecast miss or slower growth, but the multiple alone does not prove that the stock is overvalued or undervalued. A value-investing book can explain broader valuation concepts; it cannot supply current PLTR inputs or determine whether the shares fit a particular investor.
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What are the main risks to include in a PLTR analysis?
A balanced assessment asks what could weaken the business outlook, reduce the conversion of demand into revenue, or make the current price harder to justify. Palantir’s Form 10-Q discusses risks including long sales cycles, termination for convenience, competition, AI- and privacy-related liabilities, and its multi-class voting structure.
Revenue durability and customer concentration
Palantir said its top three customers contributed 16% of first-half 2026 revenue. It also reported that one customer represented 27% of accounts receivable at June 30. The latter is a concentration of receivables—not a statement that this customer supplied 27% of revenue. These measures answer different questions: revenue concentration concerns sales over a period; receivables concentration concerns amounts owed at a point in time. The figures and risk disclosures appear in the company’s Form 10-Q.
Government exposure and contract conversion
Government business is an important part of the company’s reported revenue, but budgets, procurement processes, and contract terms can affect timing and renewals. For commercial and government demand alike, examine whether broad deal-value measures convert into noncancelable obligations and then recognized revenue. Termination rights and unexercised options make that conversion a key uncertainty, not a formality.
Adjusted profit, dilution, and control
High adjusted margins should be weighed against GAAP margins and stock-based compensation. Separately, the multi-class share structure gives the founder concentrated voting power; voting control can mean that economic ownership and influence over corporate decisions are not distributed in the same way.
AI-related and competitive risks
Competition can pressure growth or margins, while AI and privacy-related liabilities can create legal, regulatory, or reputational exposure. The existence of these disclosed risks does not predict that a particular loss will occur; it means they belong in a downside case rather than being ignored because recent growth is strong.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should you compare a bullish case with a cautious case?
Use the same operating and valuation questions for both scenarios. A bullish narrative should not get to assume seamless growth and conversion while a cautious narrative is held to a higher standard.
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| Question | Bullish case to examine | Cautious case to examine |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. commercial growth | Can recent growth persist and broaden across customers? | Could growth decelerate or rely on a narrow group of large deals? |
| Government revenue | Can spending and renewals sustain the contribution? | Could budget or procurement shifts slow awards and renewals? |
| Demand conversion | Do deal measures convert into noncancelable obligations and recognized revenue? | How much value is exposed to cancellation rights or unexercised options? |
| Profitability | Can the business sustain strong margins while growing? | Does the gap between GAAP and adjusted margins, including stock-based compensation, change the quality of reported profit? |
| Cash and ownership | Does cash generation remain strong relative to investment needs? | Do equity awards dilute shareholders, and how does concentrated voting control affect governance? |
| Valuation | Can future revenue growth support the multiple implied by the share price? | How much would the valuation change if revenue growth or margins fell short? |
Write down what evidence would strengthen or weaken each case before looking at the next report. The point is not to force a numerical target when the assumptions are uncertain; it is to make clear which assumptions are doing the work and how a slower outcome would affect the valuation.
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When should you update this analysis?
Update the framework when Palantir reports new results or changes guidance, and whenever the market price or share count changes enough to alter the valuation calculation. The October 30, 2026 snapshot is especially time-sensitive because the next earnings release was scheduled for November 2 after the U.S. close.
On refresh, replace the historical quarter with the newly reported period, check whether prior guidance was achieved, and recalculate any forward or trailing multiple from matched dates. Recheck the relevant filing for share counts, stock-based compensation, customer concentration, contract definitions, and cash balances. Keep actual reported results distinct from forecasts even when both appear in the same release.
This is an evaluation framework, not personalized investment advice. A strong business, attractive stock, and suitable investment are three different judgments; the evidence needed for one does not automatically settle the others.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between market capitalization and enterprise value for PLTR?
Market capitalization estimates the value of the common equity using a share price and share count. Enterprise value adjusts equity value for cash, debt, and other relevant claims, so it requires additional current balance-sheet inputs and a clearly stated calculation.
Why can Palantir’s U.S. commercial growth differ from its commercial segment growth?
The U.S. commercial figure covers a geographic subset, while the commercial segment includes business beyond that subset. Compare figures only when both their geography and reporting period match.
Does a high Rule of 40 score mean PLTR shares are cheap?
No. The score combines growth and an operating-margin measure; it does not compare the share price with earnings, cash flow, or revenue. A company can score highly on that operating measure and still have a valuation that depends on substantial future growth.
Can stock-based compensation affect earnings even though it is noncash?
Yes. It is recorded as compensation expense under accounting rules, while the related equity awards can affect ownership through additional shares. That is why investors often examine both reported profit and share-count changes.
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