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Lucky Cement’s 2026 outlook is weaker than its headline 2025 profit suggests. The Taiwan Stock Exchange-listed cement and stone producer (code 1108; ticker 1108.TW) reported NT$4.451 billion in 2025 revenue, down 8.55% year over year, while net profit rose 78.29% to NT$880.657 million. That profit increase included substantial other income connected with a supplier tax-refund arrangement. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue fell to NT$1.904 billion from NT$2.373 billion and pretax profit dropped to NT$130.212 million from NT$875.723 million.
A Simply Wall St estimates table shows modeled 2026 revenue of TWD3.982 billion, earnings of TWD274 million and free cash flow of TWD348 million, but lists the average number of analysts as N/A. Those figures are standardized third-party estimates, not company guidance or a demonstrated sell-side consensus.
What happened to Lucky Cement’s revenue and profit in 2025?
Revenue contracted, but reported profit increased sharply. Lucky Cement’s 2025 consolidated statements show operating revenue of NT$4.450870 billion, operating profit of NT$1.111330 billion, profit before income tax of NT$1.091894 billion and net profit of NT$880.657 million.
| 2025 measure | Reported amount | Year-over-year context |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated operating revenue | NT$4.450870 billion | Down 8.55% |
| Operating profit | NT$1.111330 billion | Not separately stated in the supplied figures |
| Profit before income tax | NT$1.091894 billion | Not separately stated in the supplied figures |
| Net profit | NT$880.657 million | Up 78.29% |
| Earnings per share | NT$2.18 | Up from NT$1.22 in 2024 |
The annual report attributes the lower revenue mainly to sharply higher rail-freight costs, described as rising by more than double from July 2025, and competition from low-priced imported aggregate. The cement segment generated almost all operating revenue: NT$4.450756 billion, compared with only NT$114 thousand from the other segment.
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Why did profit rise while revenue fell?
The key issue is earnings quality. Lucky Cement’s 2025 profit included a material other-income item arising from a supplier’s tax-refund arrangement. That income helped lift EPS from NT$1.22 in 2024 to NT$2.18 in 2025 even as sales declined.
This means the 78.29% net-profit increase should not be treated as a simple measure of recurring cement-demand growth. Operating results, cement volumes, freight costs and future aggregate pricing need to be separated from the unusual other-income contribution when assessing any estimate.
How did Lucky Cement perform in the first half of 2026?
The six months ended June 30, 2026, showed a substantial deterioration from the same period of 2025. The percentage changes below are calculated from the issuer-reported interim amounts.
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| Measure | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated operating revenue | NT$2.373296 billion | NT$1.903969 billion | Down about 19.8% |
| Profit before income tax | NT$875.723 million | NT$130.212 million | Down about 85.1% |
| Cement-segment profit | NT$890.991 million | NT$136.257 million | Down about 84.7% |
The interim comparison is important because it shows weaker operating momentum after a 2025 period that benefited from other income. It does not by itself establish the full-year result, but it makes a 2026 estimate based on simply annualizing 2025 profit particularly unreliable.
What are the available 2026 estimates for 1108.TW?
Simply Wall St’s table, accessed in 2026, lists the following forward-oriented row for June 30, 2026. The figures are modeled or standardized data rather than guidance issued by Lucky Cement.
| Estimate item | Figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | TWD3,982 million | Third-party modeled estimate |
| Earnings | TWD274 million | Third-party modeled estimate |
| Free cash flow | TWD348 million | Third-party modeled estimate |
| Cash from operations | TWD446 million | Third-party modeled estimate |
| Average number of analysts | N/A | No analyst-count-based consensus demonstrated |
The estimated revenue is below Lucky Cement’s NT$4.450870 billion 2025 revenue, while estimated earnings are far below the 2025 net-profit figure. That pattern is consistent with a model that discounts the unusual 2025 income item and the weak first-half 2026 operating trend, although the estimate’s methodology is not stated in the supplied data.
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Is there an analyst consensus for Lucky Cement?
There is no demonstrated broad analyst consensus in the available data. The estimates page reports the average number of analysts as “N/A,” so its revenue, earnings and cash-flow figures should not be described as a consensus target or as a collection of named sell-side forecasts.
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What is management’s 2026 outlook?
Chairman Chen Yunru’s shareholder letter calls for a conservative view of Taiwan cement demand. Continuing property-market credit controls and tighter funding are pushing real estate toward a lower-volume, consolidating phase. Semiconductor-factory expansion, factories and offices, and public infrastructure provide support, but management says property and aggregate demand remain uncertain.
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“面對115年，由於我國經濟高度依賴國際貿易，在全球科技浪潮和美國雲端服務供應商持續增加資本支出的情況下，可望延續資通及電子產品的出口動能，使經濟維持穩健成長。”
Chairman Chen Yunru, shareholder letter
The company’s English-language sense of this statement is that Taiwan’s trade dependence, the global technology wave and continued cloud-service-provider capital spending could sustain export momentum and stable economic growth. That macroeconomic support does not amount to quantified earnings guidance.
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| Product | Planned 2026 production | Planned 2026 sales |
|---|---|---|
| Cement and slag powder | 650,000–900,000 tonnes | 650,000–1,000,000 tonnes |
| Stone | 2.0–2.5 million tonnes | 300,000–700,000 tonnes |
Management is also working on Portland limestone cement qualification and trial production, alternative raw materials and binders, and grinding-system improvements. These are strategic and process initiatives; no quantified earnings benefit or delivery timetable is provided.
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Which risks matter most when reading the estimates?
- Freight: Higher rail costs can pressure delivered margins, especially when selling prices cannot adjust immediately.
- Imported aggregate: Low-priced imports can displace domestic stone sales and weaken pricing.
- Property credit policy: Tighter funding can reduce cement and aggregate demand from construction even if other sectors remain resilient.
- Revenue mix: Cement supplied almost all 2025 revenue, so cement volume and margin trends dominate the group result.
- Carbon costs: Future carbon-fee estimates introduce uncertainty into product and operating costs.
- Execution: Low-carbon products and subsidiary projects carry timing and implementation risk.
How should readers compare the estimates with reported results?
- Start with revenue trajectory. Compare the TWD3.982 billion modeled revenue with the 2025 reported base and the 19.8% year-over-year H1 2026 revenue decline.
- Separate recurring operations from other income. Do not use the 2025 net-profit jump as a proxy for normal cement profitability without adjusting for the supplier tax-refund-related income.
- Check the segment and logistics mix. Cement performance is the primary driver, while stone volumes, imported aggregate and rail freight affect the downside.
- Stress-test demand assumptions. Property credit controls may reduce construction demand, while semiconductor-related construction and public works could partly offset that pressure.
Lucky Cement’s published data therefore supports a cautious interpretation: the available 2026 figures are estimates rather than consensus, and the latest reported operating trend is materially weaker than the exceptional 2025 profit headline.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Lucky Cement’s NT$2.18 EPS for 2025 represent recurring earnings?
Not necessarily. The annual report links part of the increase from NT$1.22 in 2024 to a supplier tax-refund-related income item, so recurring earnings should be assessed from operating profit, segment results and future filings.
What should I verify before using a 1108.TW earnings estimate?
Confirm the estimate’s period-end date, currency and definition of earnings, then compare it with the latest interim filing. A modeled number can change when new half-year or annual results are added.
How exposed is Lucky Cement to Taiwan’s property market?
Management says credit controls and tighter funding are moving property into a lower-volume phase, which can reduce cement and aggregate demand. Semiconductor facilities, offices, factories and public infrastructure are identified as potential offsets, not guaranteed replacements.
Are Lucky Cement’s low-carbon projects included in the 2026 earnings estimate?
The available company material describes qualification, trials and process improvements but gives no quantified earnings contribution. Their financial effect therefore cannot be isolated from the published estimate.
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