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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →To evaluate Intel stock, look past headline revenue growth and test what is driving it, whether gross-margin gains reflect repeatable product economics, whether Intel Foundry can attract profitable external business, and how much cash remains after investment. Intel’s latest reported results in the available filings are for the quarter ended June 27, 2026: revenue rose 25% year over year to $16.1 billion, but the company also reported a GAAP net loss of $11.0 billion, and Intel Foundry recorded a $2.1 billion operating loss. Those facts describe operating performance; they do not, by themselves, show whether the shares are cheap or expensive.
The figures below are Intel-reported U.S.-dollar results, not forecasts or an investment recommendation. The main sources are Intel’s July 23, 2026 second-quarter earnings release, its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 27, 2026, and its fiscal 2025 Form 10-K. The available information does not establish a share price or fair value for October 4, 2026.
How do I evaluate Intel stock?
Use a consistent framework rather than a single headline number. Start with the source and repeatability of revenue growth; then examine the composition of gross margin, the profitability and external demand of Intel Foundry, and operating cash flow relative to the investment needed to build and equip factories. Finally, compare those operating prospects with a dated share price and explicit valuation assumptions.
- Revenue: Separate unit volume from pricing, mix, supply constraints, and changes to the businesses included in comparisons.
- Margins: Distinguish product-profit improvement from the effect of period charges that did not recur.
- Foundry: Separate internal manufacturing activity from third-party revenue, and technical milestones from evidence of customer demand and profitable production.
- Cash: Compare operating cash generation with capital spending and account for incentives, partner contributions, leases, and working-capital movements.
- Valuation: Translate scenarios for growth, margins, investment, and risk into cash flows or earnings, then compare them with market value.
What do Intel’s latest reported results show?
Intel reported the following for Q2 2026 in its July 23 earnings release. The quarter ended June 27, 2026; comparisons are with Q2 2025.
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| Measure | Q2 2026 | Comparison or context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1 billion | Up 25% year over year |
| GAAP gross margin | 40.4% | 27.5% in Q2 2025 |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 41.8% | 29.7% in Q2 2025 |
| GAAP net income (loss) attributable to Intel | ($11.0 billion) | Non-GAAP net income was $2.2 billion |
| Cash from operations | $7.0 billion | Quarterly company-reported figure |
These measures tell different parts of the story. Revenue and gross margin concern sales and production economics; net income also reflects other gains, losses, and expenses. For example, Intel’s Form 10-Q reported a $13.619 billion mark-to-market loss on Escrowed Shares in the first half of 2026, while the company reported positive cash from operations in Q2. A quarterly net loss therefore should not be treated as a direct measure of cash consumed, just as positive operating cash flow does not establish that capital needs are covered.
Intel forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion in its July 23 release. This is management guidance, not an independently produced estimate or a guarantee of results.
Is Intel’s revenue growth repeatable?
Break reported growth into unit volume, average selling prices (ASPs), product mix, end-market demand, and supply. In its Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Intel said client revenue benefited from higher ASPs even as client unit volume fell 8% year over year. Server unit volume rose 9%, and server ASPs increased 48%; Intel attributed most of that ASP increase to a richer premium-product mix. It also said demand exceeded available supply because of factory and broader industry constraints, which it expected to persist into 2027.
Those details qualify the 25% revenue increase: it was not simply the result of more units sold across the business. Higher pricing and premium mix can support revenue, but an investor should test whether they persist and whether supply limitations constrain sales. In later quarters, compare volume, ASPs, mix, and supply commentary with reported revenue rather than assuming Q2’s growth rate will continue.
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Account for the Altera change
Intel deconsolidated Altera from its consolidated financial statements effective September 12, 2025, after selling 51% of its shares. Intel flags the change as affecting year-over-year comparability. When comparing segment or consolidated revenue across periods, account for the portfolio change; otherwise, the reported difference may be mistaken for a change in underlying demand.
Does the gross-margin improvement look durable?
Intel’s Q2 2026 GAAP gross margin of 40.4% was up from 27.5% in Q2 2025. The Form 10-Q attributed the improvement to two roughly equal contributors: $1.5 billion of higher product profit and $1.5 billion of lower period charges. The lower charges included the absence of a $797 million non-cash impairment and accelerated depreciation charge recognized in Q2 2025, partly offset by an inventory-related charge in Q2 2026.
That breakdown matters because a margin increase caused partly by charges not recurring is not the same as a comparable improvement in ongoing product economics. To assess durability, follow product profit and unit economics across several quarters, while tracking premium mix, wafer costs, factory utilization, and restructuring savings. A single quarter cannot establish that the higher margin will persist.
Read GAAP and non-GAAP results alongside each other. Intel reported Q2 2026 GAAP gross margin of 40.4% and non-GAAP gross margin of 41.8%; for Q2 2025, the respective figures were 27.5% and 29.7%. Non-GAAP measures exclude or adjust items under the company’s stated methodology. Check Intel’s reconciliation to GAAP rather than treating an adjusted figure as a replacement for the reported GAAP result, and avoid projecting one quarter’s margin change forward without explaining its drivers.
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Is Intel Foundry making commercial progress?
Assess manufacturing progress and the economics of the foundry business separately. A process milestone may show that development or production has advanced; it does not alone establish competitive yields, cost, external customer volume, or attractive returns on factory investment.
Separate Intel’s technical milestones from customer economics
Intel’s Q2 2026 Form 10-Q said its first products manufactured on Intel 18A entered high-volume production at the start of 2026, and that the Intel 18A-P derivative entered risk production in June 2026. Intel also committed during Q2 to completing development of Intel 14A. The company said the pace of expansion would ultimately depend on committed demand from its own product roadmap and external-customer design wins. These are company disclosures and plans; they do not independently verify yield, cost competitiveness, or future customer volumes.
For commercial evidence, look beyond node names and development milestones. Track customer commitments and design wins, external revenue, wafer costs, yields, factory utilization, capital spending, and segment operating results. Consider whether the business can convert technical progress into sustained customer demand and returns that justify the investment.
Separate external revenue from internal manufacturing
Intel Foundry reported $5.765 billion of revenue in Q2 2026, including $5.5 billion of intersegment revenue and $293 million of external revenue, and recorded a $2.1 billion operating loss, according to the Form 10-Q. The total segment revenue is not all third-party sales: most reflected manufacturing activity elsewhere within Intel. External revenue is the more direct measure of sales to outside customers, while the operating loss shows the segment’s reported profitability for the quarter.
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Can Intel generate enough cash to fund its fabs?
Operating cash flow is only one side of the funding question. Compare it with spending on property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), and then account for capital-related incentives, partner contributions, finance-lease payments, and other investing or financing cash flows. Also examine working-capital movements, which can affect cash generated in a particular period.
For the six months ended June 27, 2026, Intel reported $8.102 billion of operating cash flow and $6.192 billion of cash additions to PP&E in its Form 10-Q. Simple subtraction leaves about $1.910 billion before considering capital-related incentives, partner contributions, finance-lease payments, or other investing and financing cash flows. This is an arithmetic comparison of the two reported figures, not Intel’s adjusted free cash flow measure and not a complete estimate of cash available for other uses.
For fiscal 2025, Intel’s Form 10-K reported $9.697 billion of operating cash flow and negative $1.612 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow is a company-defined non-GAAP measure. Intel’s reconciliation starts with operating cash flow and applies its stated treatment of net PP&E additions, capital incentives, net SCIP contributions, and finance-lease payments. Use that reconciliation rather than substituting a generic free-cash-flow formula.
Intel’s fiscal 2025 Form 10-K disclosed $9.1 billion of capital expenditure commitments for 2026 as of December 27, 2025. That is a dated commitment disclosure, not evidence that all of the amount had already been spent. Intel also said in its Q2 2026 earnings release that it was meaningfully increasing investment in equipment, clean-room space, and substrates. The funding question is whether operating cash generation and available sources of capital can sustain the manufacturing roadmap as investment needs evolve—not just whether one quarter reported positive operating cash flow.
How should I value Intel stock after assessing operations?
Operating results do not establish a fair value. A valuation conclusion requires a time-stamped share price and a stated method, such as a discounted cash-flow model or an earnings-based comparison. It also requires assumptions about future results and a clear basis for share count, dilution, and balance-sheet treatment. The figures summarized here do not provide an October 4, 2026 market price or those valuation inputs.
Build scenarios that vary the drivers most relevant to Intel’s results and investment needs:
- Product revenue growth, unit volume, pricing, and mix.
- Gross-margin normalization after separating product economics from period charges.
- Intel Foundry’s external customer wins and losses, operating losses, and ability to improve production economics.
- Capital intensity, incentives, partner contributions, and the timing of cash spending.
- How long new manufacturing nodes and facilities take to generate returns.
Then compare the value implied by each scenario with the dated market value of the shares. A business turnaround, even if it occurs, is not by itself evidence that the stock is undervalued; the price paid must be considered against the cash flows or earnings the business can plausibly produce.
What could invalidate an optimistic view?
Intel’s Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cautions that past results may not reliably indicate future performance. Material risks include prolonged product supply constraints; failure to improve manufacturing yields or costs; continued Intel Foundry losses or weak external demand; capital requirements exceeding internally generated cash; execution problems in process-node and facility roadmaps; and accounting or portfolio changes that make comparisons less informative. These risks belong in the scenarios and valuation assumptions, not just in a footnote to a bullish case.
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