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Galaxy Research argues that Bitcoin’s bear market ended at the June 30, 2026 low and that the market has entered an accumulation phase. Its October 22 alert points to a sustained move back above the 50-week moving average, a smaller drawdown than earlier cycles, slower selling by very old holders, and macro conditions that may favor scarce assets. That is Galaxy’s investment thesis—not an independently verified market fact or a promise that Bitcoin cannot fall further.
Bitcoin was $81,391 on October 22, according to Galaxy Digital, 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30 low. The Block reported it above $80,000 on October 26, still about 36% below that record.
What exactly is Galaxy claiming about Bitcoin’s bear market?
Galaxy’s conclusion is that the June decline marked a cyclical low rather than the start of a deeper bear market. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, wrote: “Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin.” The firm bases that view on technical structure, on-chain holder behavior, fiscal and monetary conditions, and unusually pessimistic sentiment.
A sustained 50-week moving-average reclaim
Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average, then closed above it for five consecutive weeks. Galaxy also says the 200-week moving average held during the June decline. In its historical comparison, the four long-duration 50-week reclaims since 2011 were followed by no more than an 8.4% closing loss from the reclaim level during the subsequent year. Decrypt’s summary says those four cases eventually recovered their prior highs, although historical patterns do not determine this cycle’s result.
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Did Bitcoin really bottom on June 30, 2026?
Galaxy’s timing case combines the halving calendar with the depth of the decline and a market-value measure. It presents these figures as evidence that the June 30 low was a completed-cycle bottom, not proof that another low is impossible.
| Measure | Current cycle | Earlier completed bears |
|---|---|---|
| Days from halving to cycle low | Day 916 when Galaxy wrote its report | Days 777, 889 and 912 |
| Peak-to-trough drawdown | 53% | 77% to 93% |
| Market value/realized value ratio at low | 1.10 | 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 |
Galaxy says market value never fell below realized value in this downturn. That is a materially less severe capitulation than in the three prior completed bears, but a shallower drawdown can also leave more room for a later reset if demand weakens.
How much selling pressure is left from long-term Bitcoin holders?
Galaxy reports that coins unmoved for at least five years changed hands at an average rate of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. About 1.11 million BTC moved out of that age group since October 2024. Galaxy says spot exchange-traded funds and public Bitcoin treasury companies absorbed much of the supply.
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The Block’s account interprets the slowdown in old-coin movement as evidence that long-term selling pressure has eased. Galaxy’s 13F discussion is more mixed: some large reporting institutions reduced their holdings while others added. A lower flow from dormant coins therefore supports the accumulation thesis, but it does not establish that every major holder is still buying.
Does the macroeconomic case favor Bitcoin?
Galaxy links Bitcoin’s fixed supply to the possibility of currency dilution as governments refinance large obligations. Its cited figures are a U.S. federal debt balance of $40.44 trillion on October 20, 2026; a fiscal-2026 deficit of $1.99 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP; and annualized federal interest payments of $1.28 trillion.
The same report cites a 5.31% 10-year Treasury yield on October 5, a Federal Reserve target range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, CPI inflation of 3.7%, and M2 growth of 5.7%. Galaxy’s argument is that persistent deficits and refinancing needs increase the relative appeal of an asset with a predetermined supply. Those figures describe pressure and incentives, not a direct forecast of Bitcoin’s price.
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Galaxy also quotes a Morgan Stanley estimate of $570 billion in AI-related debt issuance during 2026 and roughly $1.5 trillion of externally financed AI build-out through 2028. The firm treats that borrowing as another potential source of liquidity and financial-system risk; the estimate is a forecast, not a realized amount.
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Galaxy describes a recurring “blockchain, not bitcoin” narrative in which activity in the wider crypto infrastructure improves while investors remain indifferent to Bitcoin. Stablecoins in circulation grew 129% from the start of 2024 to $304 billion, even though Bitcoin was still about one-third below its high. That expansion can provide deployable liquidity, but stablecoin balances are not the same as Bitcoin purchases.
Attention indicators were also depressed: Galaxy says Google searches for “bitcoin” reached a several-year low on October 13, 2026, while the Fear & Greed index reached 5 in February and 15 at the June low. These measures are time-sensitive and can change quickly after a price rally or a regulatory, macroeconomic or security shock.
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Is buying now better than waiting for confirmation?
There is no neutral allocation recommendation in the cited material. A reader can instead compare Galaxy’s buy-and-hold thesis with waiting for stronger confirmation or keeping a smaller exposure.
| Decision lens | Buy-and-hold thesis | Wait for confirmation | Smaller allocation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical evidence | Five weekly closes above the 50-week average and support at the 200-week average | Require the reclaim to persist and avoid a failed breakout | Accept the signal while limiting position size |
| Holder flows | Use slower five-year-holder movement as evidence of reduced supply | Wait to see whether dormant-coin flows stay subdued | Scale exposure as flow data develops |
| Cycle timing | Day 916 resembles the timing of prior cycle lows | Assume halving calendars can fail to repeat | Treat cycle history as context, not a timing rule |
| Macro exposure | Seek protection from deficit-driven currency dilution | Wait for clearer inflation, rates and fiscal trends | Balance the thesis against other assets and cash needs |
| Downside plan | Hold through volatility while the thesis remains intact | Use a defined invalidation signal | Limit the loss a failed thesis can cause |
Time horizon matters more than a headline call. Someone who may need the money soon faces a different risk from a saver able to tolerate multi-year drawdowns. Bitcoin’s historical volatility means that “bear market over” does not mean a smooth advance.
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What would invalidate Galaxy’s bullish view?
Galaxy’s clearest tripwire is a weekly close back below the 50-week moving average that is not recovered within one month. A breach followed by a prompt reclaim would be less damaging to the thesis than a sustained loss of that level.
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- Drawdown risk: A renewed decline could exceed the current cycle’s 53% loss.
- Competition for capital: Equities, AI investment and other risk assets could attract money that might otherwise enter Bitcoin.
- AI-linked market stress: An AI-driven risk-asset sell-off could pull Bitcoin lower even if its long-term supply story is unchanged.
- Security and social engineering: The cited thefts targeted exchanges, vendors, devices or users rather than Bitcoin’s underlying protocol, but losses at those points can still damage confidence and liquidity.
- Cryptographic change: Galaxy says no quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography currently exists; that is a statement about the present, not a permanent guarantee.
What does “buy and hold” mean in this context?
In Galaxy’s usage, it means maintaining exposure through ordinary volatility because the investor accepts the fixed-supply and long-cycle thesis. It does not specify a purchase price, a position size, a custody method or a maximum loss. Those decisions require a personal assessment of liquidity needs, tax rules, jurisdiction and tolerance for substantial drawdowns.
Galaxy’s report is informational. Its legal disclosure says the information and opinions are not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments and do not constitute investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Bitcoin accumulation phase mean?
It describes a period in which supply is gradually absorbed by buyers, often with price moving sideways rather than rising in a straight line. The label is an interpretation of flows and market structure, not an official phase with a fixed duration or a guaranteed outcome.
Can Bitcoin make a new low after reclaiming its 50-week average?
Yes. A moving-average reclaim is a trend signal, not a floor. A weekly close below the average followed by a failure to recover it would be the specific condition Galaxy identifies as damaging to its thesis.
Does stablecoin growth mean that money is already moving into Bitcoin?
No. Stablecoins can sit in trading venues, lending markets or wallets without being exchanged for Bitcoin. Their growth indicates potential crypto-market liquidity, but it does not reveal how much will ultimately buy BTC.
How should retail investors read institutional 13F changes?
13F filings are periodic snapshots and cover only reportable U.S. securities, so they do not show every Bitcoin-related exposure or a manager’s current position. They are useful for identifying broad shifts in reported holdings, not for copying a precise trade.
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