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Cyber-insurance rates can fall while cyber risk remains severe because premiums reflect the insurance market as well as the threat environment. New insurer capacity, competition, improved security controls, policy design and portfolio results can push prices down even when attacks and claims increase. U.S. data for 2025 shows that combination clearly: the market wrote more premium and recorded more claims and a higher loss ratio, while reported rates continued to decline. Artificial intelligence is an important emerging concern, but available industry sources do not quantify an AI-driven surge in insured losses or prove that AI caused rate changes. For a buyer, a softer market is an opportunity to negotiate—not evidence that every organization is safer or that every policy offers equivalent protection.
The practical answer is to separate three questions: what the market is charging, how exposed your organization is, and what the wording of a particular policy actually pays. The sections below connect those questions and provide a renewal checklist.
Why can cyber-insurance rates fall when threats remain serious?
Insurance prices are produced by supply, demand, underwriting decisions and losses across a portfolio, not by a real-time meter of every criminal attempt. When insurers have adequate capital and several carriers compete for well-controlled accounts, they may offer lower premiums or broader terms even while ransomware, supply-chain incidents, privacy claims and outages remain active concerns.
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More capacity and competition can create a soft market
Aon’s Q2 2026 market overview describes cyber conditions as soft, with modest reductions and broader coverage or higher limits available for well-managed risks in most territories. “Soft” describes negotiating conditions between buyers and insurers; it does not mean attacks have become harmless. An insurer can reduce a quote to win a desirable account, adjust its deductible, or compete on limits while still expecting losses in the wider book.
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Underwriters price the account they can measure
Controls such as multifactor authentication, privileged-access management, tested backups and an incident-response plan make a particular risk easier to evaluate. Better data and stronger controls can reduce the uncertainty component of a premium. That effect is selective: a company with weak identity security, an exposed remote-access service, a major technology dependency or a recent claim may see little reduction even when a market index is down.
Premium movement and risk movement are different measurements
A falling rate is a price observation. Threat volume, claims frequency, severity, recovery time and systemic exposure are risk observations. They can move in opposite directions. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ 2026 report records exactly that pattern for U.S. business written in 2025: more claims and a higher industry loss ratio alongside continued price declines. That combination is a warning not to treat a cheaper quote as proof that underlying risk has fallen.
What do the latest U.S. and global figures actually show?
The figures below describe different populations and measures, so they should not be combined into a single “average price.” NAIC numbers are U.S. market totals; Marsh reports the movement for its own client portfolio; Aon provides a cross-territory market view.
| Measure | Reported result | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. direct written cyber business, 2025 | Approximately $9.46 billion, including alien surplus lines; up 3.5% from 2024 | Market volume, not a price index or a quote for an individual buyer. Source: NAIC, 2026. |
| U.S. cyber claims, 2025 | 56,323 reported claims, 20% more than in 2024 | Claim count increased even as rates softened. Source: NAIC, 2026. |
| Industry loss ratio, 2025 | 53, compared with 48.7 in 2024 | These are the figures and format stated in the NAIC summary; confirm the report’s underlying unit before treating them as percentages. Source: NAIC, 2026. |
| Marsh U.S. rate movement, Q4 2025 | Rates decreased 3%, the 11th consecutive quarterly decrease | Marsh says the result reflects its client-portfolio mix, not the entire U.S. market. Source: Marsh, Q4 2025. |
| Aon market conditions, Q2 2026 | Soft conditions, modest reductions and broader coverage or higher limits for well-managed risks in most territories | A global market characterization; outcomes depend on the quality and location of the insured risk. Source: Aon, Q2 2026. |
| U.S. direct written premium, 2024 | Approximately $9.14 billion, down 7% from 2023 | Historical context only; do not substitute it for the 2025 total. Source: NAIC, 2025 report. |
| Average U.S. rate movement, Q4 2024 | Rates declined 5% | A prior-year market observation, separate from the Q4 2025 Marsh result. Source: NAIC, 2025 report. |
The increase from roughly $9.14 billion in 2024 to $9.46 billion in 2025 is growth in written business, not evidence that each policy became more expensive. Likewise, the 3% Marsh movement is not a promise that your renewal will fall by 3%. Your broker’s book, territory, industry mix, limits and reporting period all influence the number you see.
Is artificial intelligence making cyber insurance more expensive?
AI is making insurers pay closer attention to changing attack and dependency patterns, but the available sources do not establish a quantified AI-driven increase in insured losses or a causal link between AI and falling rates. Treat “AI threats are exploding” as a risk hypothesis that requires qualification, not as a measured insurance statistic.
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What insurers are watching
The NAIC lists expanded AI use among emerging risks together with cloud outages and third-party dependencies. Aon also points to AI use by cyber criminals and insureds, systemic risk and evolving tactics in its Q4 2025 overview. These concerns can affect underwriting questions, security-control expectations, policy conditions and the way an insurer models accumulation across many customers.
What has not been demonstrated
The cited industry reports do not provide a percentage of attacks, claims or rate movements attributable specifically to AI. AI can lower the cost of producing convincing lures, automate reconnaissance or introduce new errors in an organization’s own systems, but those possibilities do not by themselves show how much an insurer should charge. Until loss data isolates an AI effect, it is more accurate to describe AI as one contributor to uncertainty alongside ransomware, privacy liability, cloud concentration and supply-chain exposure.
Why AI can matter without appearing as a separate premium line
Underwriters usually price the resulting exposure—such as credential theft, data disclosure, business interruption or an insecure integration—rather than a technology label. A company that deploys an AI service may therefore face questions about data handling, access permissions, vendor contracts and human review, while a company that does not use AI can still be exposed through a supplier or an attacker’s automation. The control and dependency details matter more than a simple “uses AI” checkbox.
Why does a market average not predict my renewal quote?
A market statistic describes a population; a quote prices your limits, retention, controls and loss history. Two organizations in the same sector can receive opposite outcomes because their exposures and evidence differ.
- Controls: Multifactor authentication coverage, secure backups, endpoint detection, vulnerability management and privileged-account governance can change an underwriter’s view of frequency and severity.
- Exposure: Revenue, records held, internet-facing systems, operational technology, cloud concentration and reliance on critical suppliers affect the size of a possible loss.
- Claims and incidents: A recent ransomware event, notification obligation or near miss can lead to higher pricing, a larger retention or a specific exclusion.
- Limit structure: A lower premium may come with reduced aggregate limits, sublimits, coinsurance, waiting periods or a higher deductible.
- Geography and portfolio: Marsh’s result is tied to its clients, while Aon’s observation spans territories. Neither is an individual-company benchmark.
Ask your broker to show the proposed premium change separately from changes to limits, retention, sublimits and wording. A nominally cheaper renewal can be less valuable if the insurer has narrowed business-interruption coverage or added a restrictive security warranty.
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What does a cyber-insurance policy usually cover?
Coverage depends on the contract, but the NAIC identifies common areas such as breach response, business interruption, cyber extortion, network recovery and liability. Read the actual insuring agreements, definitions and endorsements rather than relying on a product summary.
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These may include forensic investigation, legal advice, notification, credit-monitoring services, restoration of damaged systems, lost income and extra expense after an insured incident. Sublimits, waiting periods, vendor requirements and a definition of “interruption” can materially change the amount payable.
Third-party liability
A policy may respond to claims alleging privacy violations, failure to protect data, or security and privacy errors. Contractual liability, regulatory matters and media-related claims can be treated differently, so check the definitions and exclusions.
Extortion and related crime
Cyber-extortion coverage can address ransom negotiations or payment costs where lawful and authorized, but crime policies may address fraudulent transfers, social engineering or employee dishonesty under different terms. The NAIC specifically advises buyers to examine related crime policies rather than assume one cyber policy covers every financial loss.
How should a business compare cyber-insurance offers before renewing?
Use the same exposure information and request a side-by-side schedule of wording changes. The following process helps distinguish a genuine improvement from a lower headline price.
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- Freeze the fact set. Record current revenue, locations, data types, cloud and technology providers, remote-access methods, backup design, security controls, prior incidents and existing limits. Give every insurer the same information and identify material changes since last year.
- Compare premium, retention and total limits. Note the annual premium, each deductible or self-insured retention, aggregate and per-claim limits, and whether defense costs erode the limit. A lower premium with a much higher retention may increase your expected out-of-pocket cost.
- Map sublimits to realistic costs. Check separate caps for breach response, business interruption, system restoration, contingent interruption, social engineering, regulatory proceedings and extortion. Compare each cap with the cost of operating without the affected system.
- Read exclusions and conditions line by line. Pay attention to war and infrastructure wording, unencrypted data, contractual liability, prior-known events, failure to maintain controls, waiting periods and requirements to use approved vendors. Ask for plain-language explanations of any new endorsement.
- Test dependency scenarios. Ask how the policy responds when a cloud, managed-service or software supplier causes an outage, and whether the event must affect your own network to trigger coverage. Confirm how contingent business interruption and systemic events are treated.
- Validate the incident process. Identify the breach coach, notification counsel, forensic firm and insurer hotline before an event. Confirm who can authorize expenses and whether using a non-panel provider changes reimbursement.
- Coordinate crime and other policies. Compare cyber coverage with crime, property, general liability and technology-errors policies to find gaps or overlapping exclusions. Document which policy responds first to fraudulent payments, stolen credentials and physical damage.
- Obtain the final wording. Do not bind on a quotation alone. Keep the proposal, application, endorsements and insurer answers together, because an inaccurate application or an unmet control warranty can affect a claim.
Which security controls are most important to discuss with underwriters?
There is no universal control checklist or guaranteed premium discount, but underwriters commonly seek evidence that an organization can prevent, detect and recover from a compromise. Prepare dated, reviewable evidence rather than broad assurances.
- Identity: Multifactor authentication for remote access, email, administrators and other high-risk systems; least privilege; separate administrator accounts; and prompt offboarding.
- Resilience: Offline or otherwise protected backups, documented recovery objectives and a recent restoration test showing that backups are usable.
- Detection and response: Centralized logging, endpoint monitoring, alert triage, an incident-response plan, named decision makers and an exercise that includes legal and communications teams.
- Exposure management: Regular vulnerability scanning, timely patching of internet-facing systems, secure remote administration and a process for unsupported assets.
- Third parties: Inventory of critical suppliers, security requirements in contracts, access reviews and a plan for operating if a provider is unavailable.
- Data governance: Data minimization, encryption where appropriate, retention rules and a clear map of where regulated information is stored and processed.
Controls should be accurate on the application. An insurer can treat a representation as a condition of coverage, and a control that exists on paper but is not consistently enforced may not help during a claim.
Could falling rates reverse?
Yes. A soft market can harden if losses become more severe, reinsurance capacity tightens, a systemic event reveals correlated exposure, or carriers change their appetite. The NAIC’s higher 2025 claim count and loss-ratio figure show why today’s price trend should not be extrapolated indefinitely.
For planning, budget for more than the premium. Maintain the controls that made favorable terms possible, model the retention and uninsured costs, and schedule renewal preparation early enough to correct evidence gaps. A sudden change in ransomware severity, cloud concentration or regulatory expectations can affect wording before it affects a published market index.
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Rates are a market-clearing price for transferring a defined slice of risk; they are not a direct forecast of the number of attacks. In 2025, U.S. written business grew to about $9.46 billion, reported claims rose to 56,323 and the NAIC loss-ratio figure increased from 48.7 to 53, yet prices continued to decline. Capacity, competition and selective underwriting can explain how those facts coexist. AI adds uncertainty and may change attack economics, but current public data supports describing it as one emerging concern—not as a proven, standalone cause of either exploding insured losses or cheaper insurance.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does a lower cyber-insurance premium mean my company has less cyber risk?
No. The premium may reflect additional insurer capacity, stronger competition or a change in limits and retention. Review your own controls, exposure and policy wording before treating a lower invoice as a risk improvement.
How often should a business review its cyber policy?
Review it at every renewal and whenever you make a material change such as adopting a major cloud service, acquiring a company, changing remote access or experiencing an incident. Midterm review is especially useful when a supplier or data flow changes the assumptions in the application.
Can one cyber policy cover an outage at a cloud provider?
Sometimes, through contingent business-interruption or dependent-system wording, but coverage is contract-specific. Check whether the provider must be named, whether your own network must also be affected, and what waiting period or sublimit applies.
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Are ransomware payments always covered by cyber insurance?
Coverage can be restricted by law, sanctions, policy conditions, consent requirements and exclusions. Confirm who may authorize a payment, which expenses are covered and how the policy coordinates with breach-response and crime coverage before an incident occurs.
What evidence should I keep for an insurance application?
Keep current control inventories, multifactor-authentication coverage reports, backup-restoration results, vulnerability-management records, incident-response exercises and supplier assessments. Dated evidence helps an underwriter evaluate the risk and helps demonstrate that application statements remain accurate.
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