AI PCs are gaining share, but current forecasts do not show them reversing a broader PC shipment decline. IDC and Gartner expect global shipments to fall in 2026 as memory and storage costs push prices higher and buyers delay upgrades. The “economic recovery” in the headline is not measured by the available PC-market evidence, so it cannot explain or contradict these forecasts on its own.
What the 2026 PC shipment forecasts say
Both forecasts point down, but they are separate estimates published months apart—not a consensus figure or a count of completed shipments.
| Source and date | 2026 global PC shipment outlook | Related price outlook |
|---|---|---|
| IDC, June 2, 2026 | 11.3% decline for the full year; year-over-year declines could reach 20% in Q4. | 17% increase in average selling prices in 2026. |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | 10.4% decline for the full year. | PC prices forecast to be 17% higher than in 2025; combined DRAM and SSD prices estimated to rise 130% by the end of 2026. |
These figures are forecasts, not final 2026 results. They also measure shipments, not retail sell-through or revenue. Higher average prices can therefore coexist with fewer units shipping; shipment figures alone do not establish whether total market revenue rises or falls.
Why shipments can fall during an economic recovery
Component shortages push costs up
IDC attributes its outlook to a persistent memory shortage and says it expects no meaningful relief before the end of 2027. Gartner likewise links higher DRAM and SSD costs to more expensive PCs. When manufacturers face costlier or less available components, the result can be higher prices and a narrower range of configurations.
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Higher prices encourage buyers to wait
A more expensive replacement is easier to postpone if an existing computer still works. Gartner projected that by the end of 2026, PC lifetimes would lengthen by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers. Those are projected extensions, not observed replacement-cycle results. They illustrate how unit shipments can weaken even if the price of each remaining sale increases.
Early strength can mean purchases moved forward
IDC reported that global PC shipments grew 3% year over year in Q1 2026, but said some consumers and businesses bought early ahead of expected price increases and shortages. IDC Vice President Jean Philippe Bouchard said, “The anticipation of rising prices and of limited availability of some system configurations due to memory and other component shortages has led some end-users to make purchases earlier than anticipated.” A pull-forward can make one quarter look stronger while leaving fewer purchases for later; it is not, by itself, proof of sustained recovery.
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Can AI PCs reverse the decline?
AI PCs are a growing part of the market, but their rising share is not the same as growth in total PC shipments. Gartner’s August 2025 forecast projected 77.8 million AI PC shipments in 2025, or 31.0% of the market, and 143.1 million in 2026, or 54.7%. In its later February 2026 outlook, Gartner said higher AI PC prices would delay the milestone of 50% penetration until 2028. The revised outlook shows how sensitive adoption expectations are to price conditions; neither estimate proves that AI demand will offset a fall in overall units.
What on-device AI could offer
Gartner has identified potential advantages of running small language models locally, including faster responses, lower energy use, and less reliance on cloud services. It also forecast that 40% of software vendors would prioritize on-PC AI capabilities by the end of 2026, compared with 2% in 2024. These are Gartner’s projections and descriptions of possible benefits, not evidence that most buyers will upgrade for AI features.
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What would make AI a stronger upgrade reason?
AI is more likely to influence a purchase when a buyer has a specific task that benefits from local processing, suitable software is available, and the added cost makes sense. For someone whose current PC meets their needs, a larger AI-PC market share does not by itself create a reason to replace it. Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal summarized the product challenge in August 2025: “The future of AI PCs is in customization.” That outlook points to useful, tailored capabilities—not simply an AI label—as the test of whether the category can sustain demand.
What this means for consumers and businesses
- If your current PC works: shipment forecasts do not imply that you need to upgrade. Compare the cost of a replacement with the value of features you will actually use.
- If you need to buy soon: component-related price pressure makes timing and configuration availability relevant, but the cited forecasts cannot predict the price or stock of a particular model.
- For businesses: longer replacement cycles may reduce near-term unit demand. Evaluate refresh timing against support, security, workload, and productivity requirements rather than shipment trends alone.
- When considering an AI PC: check that the applications you rely on support the local AI features you want, and weigh those capabilities against any price premium.
How to read the outlook
The evidence supports a PC-market explanation for declining shipment forecasts: tighter memory supply, rising component costs, higher prices, and delayed replacements. It does not establish a general economic recovery measure, prove that AI has already rescued PC demand, or show final full-year 2026 shipments. IDC and Gartner’s dated forecasts should be treated as estimates that may change, not as realized outcomes.
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