NOAA’s latest temperature outlook does not identify which states will have the coldest Halloween. Its Oct. 2, 2026, Week 3–4 outlook covers Oct. 17–30—not Halloween night—and favors above-normal temperatures across much of the West and central U.S. Much of the East has “equal chances,” meaning NOAA does not favor warmer, near-normal, or cooler temperatures there.
What does NOAA’s Halloween temperature map show?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated its Week 3–4 outlook on Oct. 2, 2026. The temperature forecast is valid for Oct. 17–30, the run-up to Halloween, rather than Oct. 31 itself. The map shows broad regional probabilities, not a daily forecast or a state-by-state cold ranking. NOAA CPC’s Week 3–4 outlook and discussion are the primary source.
| Area | What the outlook favors | What that means |
|---|---|---|
| Much of Alaska and the western and central contiguous U.S. | Above-normal temperatures | NOAA favors the warmer-than-normal category for the two-week period. |
| Parts of the East | Equal chances | No temperature category is favored over the others; this is not a forecast of cold. |
| Parts of the Southeast, including Florida in the contemporary map interpretation | Above-normal temperatures | The outlook has a warmer-than-normal signal in these areas. |
Overall, the East looks comparatively less warm than much of the West and central U.S. in this outlook. That comparison is not a claim that the East will be cold, nor does the map establish which particular states will have the lowest temperatures.
Why the outlook does not name the coldest states
A Week 3–4 outlook describes probabilities for broad areas and a two-week average. NOAA shades the map to show the most favored category—above normal, near normal, or below normal—and uses contours to show the probability of that category. The categories are measured against the 1991–2020 climate reference period. They do not tell you the exact temperature at a location on a particular night.
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“Equal chances” (EC) means the likelihoods of the temperature categories are similar to their climatological probabilities. As NOAA’s outlook guidance explains, “In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.” EC is not a coded prediction of chilly weather.
The CPC discussion describes ridging over the western and central contiguous U.S. and neutral heights over the East. Some models suggested weak chances of below-normal temperatures in the East, but forecasters judged that evidence insufficient to tilt the official outlook toward below normal. Forecaster Johnna Infanti’s discussion says: “Similarly, some models also indicate weak chances for below-normal temperatures over the East, but there was not enough evidence or support for a tilt toward below-normal temperatures in the Outlook.”
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Will it be cold where you live on Halloween?
This map cannot answer that for a specific city or for Halloween night. It covers Oct. 17–30, and its broad probabilities are not a substitute for a local daily forecast. For a location-specific forecast, check Weather.gov as Oct. 31 approaches.
Historical climate normals can help put local temperatures in context, but they are not predictions for 2026. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) notes that typical Halloween highs across the contiguous states range from the 40s to the 80s, while typical lows range from the teens to the 70s. Its 1991–2020 normal average temperature for Oct. 31 is 37.3°F in Brainerd, Minnesota, and 9.3°F in Deadhorse, Alaska. Those are location-specific historical averages, not a ranking of states or a forecast for this Halloween.
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NCEI cautions: “While our Climate Normals provide average temperatures throughout the United States, this Halloween’s actual conditions may vary widely based on weather and climate patterns.” See NCEI’s October climate explainer for the historical context.
What El Niño does—and does not—tell us
In its Oct. 2, 2026, discussion, NOAA reported that the latest weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface-temperature departure was 2.2°C above normal and put the chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter above 90%. NOAA described El Niño as the dominant influence in the global tropics for this forecast discussion, while also discussing model differences and other factors.
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Those figures do not mean El Niño guarantees rain, cold, or any particular Halloween weather in a state or city. The CPC’s temperature outlook remains a probability forecast for its stated period, and local conditions can differ from the broad pattern.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.When to check again
NOAA said it planned to issue its next Week 3–4 outlook on Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. Check that updated outlook for changes to the broad pattern, then use Weather.gov for the local forecast closer to Oct. 31, when a daily forecast can address your area and the Halloween date itself.
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