The Tigray conflict is both the 2020–2022 war between Ethiopia’s federal government and forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and a continuing political crisis over authority and territory in northern Ethiopia. An African Union-brokered agreement halted the war’s main phase in November 2022, but it did not settle those disputes. Fighting was reported again in September 2026, with responsibility for restarting it contested.
What is the Tigray conflict?
Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia. The conflict grew out of a struggle between Ethiopia’s central government and the region’s dominant political organization, the TPLF, over political power and the relationship between federal and regional authorities. In November 2020, that confrontation escalated into a war involving federal and Tigrayan forces, as well as other Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. Fighting spread beyond Tigray into Amhara and Afar.
The war’s principal phase ended with the November 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, commonly called the Pretoria agreement. That agreement stopped the main fighting but left important questions about regional governance and disputed territory unresolved. The conflict is therefore not only a past war: it also describes the political tensions that continued afterward and the renewed fighting reported in 2026.
How did the conflict develop?
| Period | What happened | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Before 2018 | The TPLF was a leading component of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition and had outsized influence in national government. | That political order brought a period of economic growth and stability, but also resentment among many Ethiopians over the TPLF’s influence, according to the International Crisis Group’s account. |
| 2018 | Abiy Ahmed became prime minister after mass protests against the prior political order. The TPLF’s leadership shifted its center of activity back to Tigray as relations with the federal government deteriorated. | The change in national leadership sharpened the dispute over how much authority belonged to the federal government and how much to regional leaders. International Crisis Group describes the worsening federal-regional relationship. |
| September–November 2020 | Tigray held a regional election in defiance of the federal government. In November, violence between the sides escalated into war. | The immediate sequence and responsibility for the initial violence are disputed; accounts differ over the attack on a major federal military base that preceded the war. |
| 2020–2022 | Federal and Tigrayan forces fought, with other armed actors involved. The conflict also spread into Amhara and Afar. | The war was broader than a local clash between two administrations; forces from multiple regions and Eritrea were involved. |
| 2 November 2022 | The Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF agreed to a cessation of hostilities after talks launched on 25 October. | The African Union said the agreement aimed to stop fighting, enable humanitarian access, restore services, and support healing and reconciliation. |
| May 2026 | International Crisis Group reported that the TPLF pushed regional leader Tadesse Werede from office and formed a council led by party chair Debretsion Gebremichael. | The move came amid disagreement between the federal government and the TPLF over the interim administration’s mandate and consultation under the agreement. |
| 24 September 2026 | The Associated Press reported renewed clashes, competing accusations over who restarted hostilities, and TPLF fighters seizing Mekelle airport. | The report described a serious breakdown in the postwar calm, but does not establish which side initiated the renewed fighting. |
The account of the 2020 trigger requires care. International Crisis Group identifies Tigrayan forces’ overrunning of a major federal base as the event that sparked civil war. The UK Home Office’s December 2024 country note records competing allegations about how the violence began. Those differences mean the base attack should not be presented as an uncontested account of responsibility for the conflict’s outbreak. See the International Crisis Group analysis and the UK Home Office note.
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What were the main causes?
A struggle over national power and regional authority
The TPLF’s earlier influence in national government and its later concentration of political activity in Tigray formed part of the longer background. Abiy Ahmed’s rise after protests against the prior order changed the national balance of power. As federal-regional relations worsened, the central question became who had authority to govern and make decisions: the federal government or Tigray’s regional leadership. International Crisis Group traces this political shift and the growing tension between the two levels of government in its analysis of the power struggle.
The 2020 election dispute and the move to armed conflict
Tigray’s regional election, held in September 2020 despite opposition from the federal government, became an immediate point of confrontation. The subsequent violence was not simply the inevitable result of an election dispute: the parties give competing accounts of the steps that led to war. The available accounts identify the attack on a major federal base as a key escalation, but differ on the sequence and responsibility. The UK Home Office country note summarizes those competing allegations.
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Unsettled authority and territory after the agreement
The Pretoria agreement created a framework to stop hostilities and address urgent needs; it did not settle who should exercise political authority in Tigray or resolve territorial disputes. Disagreement over the interim administration’s composition and mandate, the TPLF’s political influence, and control of disputed territories continued to strain the postwar arrangement. International Crisis Group’s 2026 analysis and its CrisisWatch entries for Ethiopia describe these outstanding issues.
Who are the key groups?
| Group or institution | Role in the conflict |
|---|---|
| Ethiopian federal government and security forces | The central government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, fought Tigrayan forces during the 2020–2022 war and signed the Pretoria agreement with the TPLF. |
| Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) | Tigray’s dominant political organization and the federal government’s counterpart in the 2022 agreement. It has been the key political force behind Tigrayan forces, but the party and every armed participant should not be treated as interchangeable. |
| Tigrayan forces | Armed forces aligned with the TPLF. The distinction matters because the political party and the armed forces are related but not identical. |
| Eritrean forces | Associated Press reporting and the UK Home Office note describe Eritrean troops fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces in the earlier war. Eritrea’s role in the renewed 2026 developments is contested in reporting and should not be treated as independently established fact. |
| Amhara forces and Fano | Amhara regional forces fought alongside federal forces during the earlier war. In September 2026, AP reported that the Amhara Fano National Movement joined an opposition coalition with the TPLF and other groups. That reported alignment does not mean all Fano forces have one command. |
| Afar | The conflict spread into the Afar region during 2021, making it part of the war’s geographic expansion. |
| African Union (AU) | The AU brokered the Pretoria process and has urged the parties to implement the agreement, exercise restraint, and pursue dialogue. |
The earlier wartime alignments should not be confused with the opposition coalition AP reported in September 2026. AP said the TPLF joined six other groups in a coalition that announced a goal of removing Abiy’s governing Prosperity Party: the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. This is an account of an announced alliance at that time, not evidence that it is durable or that the named groups have a single command structure. AP’s 24 September 2026 report describes the coalition and the renewed fighting.
What did the Pretoria agreement do—and leave unresolved?
The African Union announced the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement on 2 November 2022, following talks launched on 25 October. Its stated aims included an immediate end to hostilities, renewed humanitarian access, restoration of services, and a basis for healing and reconciliation. The AU High-Level Panel called it “an important step in efforts to silence the guns” and a “solid foundation” for those aims. Read the African Union announcement of the agreement.
The agreement was a cessation of hostilities between the federal government and the TPLF, not a comprehensive settlement of every political and territorial issue. In a statement on 30 January 2026, AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf called on all parties to exercise restraint, avoid actions that could undermine confidence, and resolve outstanding issues through dialogue in keeping with the agreement. The AU’s appeal reflects that implementation and political disputes remained live; it does not establish that the sides had resolved them. See the AU Commission statement.
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What was reported in September 2026?
In a report dated 24 September 2026, the Associated Press said fighting had resumed in northern Ethiopia, both sides accused the other of restarting hostilities, TPLF fighters had seized Mekelle airport, and Ethiopian Airlines had suspended flights to the region. Because the parties disputed responsibility and the account is dated, it should be read as a report of developments on that date—not as a settled finding about who initiated the clashes or a guarantee of conditions afterward. AP’s 24 September report describes the claims and disruptions. Earlier in 2026, the AU had urged restraint and dialogue under the agreement in its 30 January statement.
AP also reported that Ghent University researchers estimated 500,000 civilian deaths in the conflict, including deaths from violence, famine, and the collapse of health services. This is an attributed estimate reported by AP in 2026, not a definitive agreed total; its stated scope includes deaths beyond direct violence. Associated Press, 24 September 2026.
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