El Niño raises the risk of a weaker June–September southwest monsoon over India, but it does not guarantee below-normal rain or drought. India has recorded both deficient and above-normal monsoon seasons during El Niño years. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), circulation patterns within the season, and regional conditions can all influence what actually falls.
What does El Niño mean for monsoon rainfall in India?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean–atmosphere pattern in the tropical Pacific. NOAA tracks sea-surface temperatures in designated Niño regions as part of its ENSO diagnosis. The familiar India connection concerns the southwest, or summer, monsoon—principally June through September—not every rainfall season or every part of the country. NOAA’s ENSO diagnostic discussion explains the current ENSO status and outlook.
A warmer central and eastern equatorial Pacific can alter tropical circulation and the large-scale environment relevant to monsoon circulation. Across seasons, El Niño is associated with a greater likelihood of below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall. It changes the odds; it does not provide a deterministic forecast for a particular year, state, or district. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) describes the ENSO–monsoon relationship as complex rather than a consistent one-to-one correspondence. IMD’s monsoon reports provide India-specific seasonal context.
Does El Niño mean less rain in India?
Often, but not invariably. IMD’s table of southwest monsoon rainfall departures in El Niño years includes seasons with substantial deficits, near-normal totals, and above-normal totals. The figures below are all-India June–September seasonal departures; they show variation, not a rule that a future El Niño season will repeat.
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| El Niño year | All-India monsoon rainfall departure |
|---|---|
| 1965 | −18.6% |
| 1972 | −22.3% |
| 1987 | −14.3% |
| 1997 | +0.2% |
| 2002 | −20.9% |
| 2015 | −12.7% |
| 2023 | −5.3% |
| 1953 | +10.7% |
| 1994 | +13.9% |
Source for all departures: India Meteorological Department’s historical El Niño-year table, retrieved in 2026. A seasonal all-India percentage also cannot show where or when rain fell: a near-normal total may conceal serious regional or monthly shortfalls.
Why can India still get good monsoon rain during El Niño?
The Indian Ocean Dipole can modify the pattern
The IOD is another climate pattern relevant to the Indian monsoon. In the latter part of 2023, a positive IOD offset some of the rainfall deficiency associated with El Niño, according to IMD’s season report. This is one example of interacting influences, not evidence that a positive IOD will always cancel El Niño’s effects. IMD’s 2023 monsoon report discusses the season’s ENSO, IOD, and rainfall context.
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Monthly and regional conditions matter
Monsoon rainfall varies within the June–September season and across India. IMD’s 2023 report notes intraseasonal variation, so a seasonal total can mask differences among months and shorter periods. The 2024 season illustrates that variation under different ENSO conditions: IMD reported ENSO and IOD were neutral, while all-India rainfall was 89% of the long-period average (LPA) in June, 109% in July, 115% in August, and 112% in September. The June–September total was 108% of LPA. The monsoon core zone, which includes much of India’s rainfed agricultural region, received 122% of its LPA. These are 2024 observations, not El Niño-year results. IMD’s 2024 season report provides the figures and context.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read an El Niño outlook for India
An ENSO outlook tells you about the Pacific climate pattern and its probability—not what rainfall a specific Indian region will receive. For example, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center discussion issued 10 September 2026 placed ENSO under an El Niño Advisory, described El Niño as strengthening, and gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. That was an ENSO forecast, not a forecast of India’s next monsoon rainfall. NOAA also cautions that even strong ENSO events do not guarantee expected regional impacts. Read NOAA CPC’s dated diagnostic discussion and its ENSO outlook context.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesTo understand implications for India, keep three different questions separate:
- What is ENSO doing? Check NOAA CPC’s diagnosis and probabilistic outlook, noting the issue date and forecast period.
- What is expected for the Indian monsoon? Consult IMD’s India-specific seasonal outlook and later forecast verification; a Pacific outlook alone does not establish an all-India rainfall percentage.
- What happened locally? Use observed rainfall by region and month. A national seasonal figure is not a district-level forecast or a description of every part of the season.
IMD’s monsoon information and report resources include rainfall records, ENSO and IOD indices, seasonal reports, and forecast-verification material. Forecasts should be read for their stated region, period, and probability, then distinguished from observed rainfall.
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What to take away
- El Niño is a meaningful risk factor for below-normal Indian June–September monsoon rainfall, not a guarantee of drought.
- Historical El Niño seasons vary, including examples with near-normal and above-normal all-India rainfall.
- IOD conditions, intraseasonal changes, and regional patterns help explain why the outcome differs between years and places.
- An ENSO forecast is not a substitute for IMD’s India-specific seasonal outlook or local rainfall observations.
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