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Prediction markets tied to the 2026 U.S. midterms had generated more than $1.4 billion in cumulative trading volume by October 23, 2026, according to CNN Newsource. Kalshi accounted for nearly $1.1 billion and Polymarket for more than $340 million. That figure measures contracts changing hands before settlement—not one person’s wager, money guaranteed to be lost, or a final election result. The total will continue moving until markets close and settle after the election.
What does the $1.4 billion figure actually measure?
It is cumulative trading volume: the economic activity recorded as traders buy and sell election contracts. Because a contract can be traded repeatedly before the underlying question is resolved, the total can be much larger than the amount any one participant ultimately has at risk.
Typical contracts are binary yes/no claims priced between 1 and 99 cents. A 65-cent “Yes” contract is commonly read as implying roughly a 65% probability, but that price also reflects available liquidity, who is trading, fees, market rules and the settlement definition. CNN cautioned that volume includes money changing hands before closure; it is not a single wager and does not represent the value of one election outcome.
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Which prediction markets account for most of the volume?
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two dominant named venues in the October 23 report. Smaller operators reported substantially less activity, and their figures are not necessarily calculated with identical methods.
| Venue | Reported 2026 midterm volume | Jurisdiction and measurement notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Nearly $1.1 billion | Kalshi’s midterm hub showed about $1.105 billion and says the exchange is subject to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. |
| Polymarket | More than $340 million | Polymarket reports separate U.S. and international entities. Polymarket US is described as a CFTC-regulated exchange; Polymarket International is a blockchain-based decentralized-finance protocol that is not CFTC-regulated and is unavailable in the United States and other restricted jurisdictions. |
| ForecastEx | More than $6.4 million | CNN attributed the figure to company representatives. ForecastEx is owned by Interactive Brokers. |
| Smarkets | About $200,000 among British customers | CNN reported the figure for UK customers while the company sought U.S. regulatory approval. |
The Kalshi and Polymarket figures dominate the reported total, but they should not be treated as a perfectly standardized league table. Reports may count cash volume, contracts, or platform-reported activity over different time windows.
What are traders buying and selling?
The market menu extends well beyond “Which candidate wins?” Contracts have covered several distinct questions.
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- Who wins an individual Senate, House or other race.
- Which party controls each chamber of Congress after the election.
- Whether a party reaches a specified seat margin.
Campaign and participation events
- Turnout levels and other participation measures.
- Endorsements, speeches, debates and candidate actions.
DeFi Rate reported that the October 1–20 surge was concentrated in the Texas Senate race and House-control contracts. Together, those categories produced nearly $49 million in volume across four operators during that period.
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How fast has 2026 midterm market activity grown?
Several snapshots show acceleration, but they describe different populations and measurement conventions.
| Measure | Figure | What it covers |
|---|---|---|
| Through September 30 | More than $220 million | Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) estimate across 2026 congressional markets; the full 2024 congressional cycle had $92 million. |
| October 1–20 | $103.87 million | DeFi Rate reconstruction across Kalshi, Polymarket US, ForecastEx and Gemini, versus about $41 million during the comparable September period. |
| May to July 2026 | $26 billion to $53 billion monthly | Pew Research Center measure of combined global Kalshi and Polymarket volume, not a midterm-only total. |
These numbers cannot simply be added. The ACDC estimate focuses on congressional markets, DeFi Rate uses a defined group of venues and dates, and Pew’s global monthly measure includes activity outside the midterms.
Can prediction-market odds be trusted as election forecasts?
They can provide a useful information signal, but they are not polls, vote counts or guarantees. Dustin Gouker, a prediction-market analyst quoted by CNN, called them “a meaningful signal that provides probabilities that aggregate polls and public sentiment.” The signal becomes harder to interpret when few traders supply most of the money.
Why concentration matters
ACDC analyzed 7,466 markets with data current to August 10, 2026. It found that the top 1% of Polymarket wallets controlled 68% of 2026 congressional-market volume. It also classified 87% of markets as either having less than $10,000 wagered or having high volume concentrated among very few traders.
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In a thin market, a relatively small order can move the displayed price sharply. A high price may therefore reflect the position of a handful of well-funded participants rather than a representative cross-section of voters. ACDC research fellow Michelle Kendler-Kretsch wrote that this concentration “makes prediction markets hard to trust as a real signal.”
Five checks before reading an odds number
- Identify the venue and jurisdiction. A U.S. regulated exchange and an international blockchain market are different products.
- Read the exact contract question. “Wins the race,” “controls the Senate” and “wins by more than a specified margin” can all have different settlement rules.
- Check liquidity and concentration. Look for trading depth, open interest or other indicators of how easily orders can be filled without moving the price.
- Record the cutoff and methodology. Date the number and determine whether it counts cash, contracts, completed trades or a platform’s own reported total.
- Compare independent evidence. Use polling, fundraising, demographics, campaign information and eventually official election results rather than treating one market price as a verdict.
Are 2026 election prediction markets legal everywhere?
No. The legal answer depends on the venue, product and the trader’s location. Kalshi says it operates under CFTC supervision. Polymarket distinguishes its CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange from its international protocol, which is unavailable in the United States and other restricted jurisdictions.
The Associated Press reported that roughly half of U.S. states have broad statutes prohibiting election betting. Litigation over whether state restrictions can apply to federally regulated markets remained unresolved and was not expected to be settled before the election. A person’s access to a website therefore does not by itself establish that trading is lawful where that person lives.
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There are also integrity concerns. The AP reported candidate suspensions and worries from election administrators that market prices could be mistaken for polls or could influence turnout. Jared DeMarinis of the Maryland State Board of Elections called the trend “troubling” for administrators nationwide.
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What financial risks should a trader understand?
A contract can expire worthless, and fees can reduce or eliminate a small apparent gain. CNN reported that most people who trade prediction markets lose money. Do not describe these contracts as risk-free or as equivalent to a scientific forecast.
- Read the settlement source and deadline before placing an order.
- Confirm whether the contract settles on an official certification, a specified reporting threshold or another event.
- Understand that a displayed price may move before you can exit, especially in a low-volume market.
- Keep legal eligibility and tax obligations separate from the question of whether an odds number looks plausible.
What remains unknown about the final total?
The October 23 figure is a running total, not an Election Day endpoint. Markets can continue trading, and totals can rise or fall as contracts are opened, closed and settled. No authoritative final cumulative number was available by October 27, 2026.
When comparing later updates, preserve the date, venue list and counting method. A headline that says “volume” may refer to cash traded, contract count or reconstructed activity, so two apparently conflicting totals can both be accurate for their stated definitions.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why can a market’s volume be larger than the money ultimately won or lost?
Volume counts transactions over the life of a contract. If traders resell positions several times, each trade contributes to cumulative volume even though the final settlement pays on only the contracts still held.
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When will the definitive 2026 midterm volume be known?
Only after the relevant contracts stop trading and settle can a complete post-election total be compiled. Even then, platforms may publish different totals if they use different counting rules or include different markets.
Why do two prediction markets show different odds for the same race?
They may have different contract wording, settlement sources, participant pools and available liquidity. A price gap can also persist when one venue has too little depth for arbitrage to close it quickly.
Can someone in a state that bans election betting still access an online market?
Website access is not a legal determination. State statutes, federal rules, the venue’s entity and the trader’s location all matter, so users need location-specific legal advice rather than relying on whether a platform loads.
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