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NASA moved Mars Sample Return into its next design phase on Jan. 7, 2025, announcing that it would develop two possible ways to land the hardware needed to collect Perseverance’s cached samples. One concept builds on the sky-crane method used by Curiosity and Perseverance; the other relies on commercial landing capabilities. That is meaningful progress, but it is not a final architecture, an approved launch date or proof that any Martian sample has been returned. NASA’s current mission page still describes Mars Sample Return as proposed and does not list a launch date.
What NASA announced in January 2025
NASA’s Jan. 7, 2025 announcement changed the program from a single redesign effort into a parallel study of two landing approaches. NASA said it would carry both concepts through formulation and then select a program and design. The agency expected that confirmation in the second half of 2026, but that expectation was not itself a decision.
The landing system is the part of the campaign that must reach Mars, operate on the surface and place the cached tubes into the next stage of the return chain. It must therefore work with Perseverance’s sample-caching strategy, the Mars Ascent Vehicle and the container that will be sent into orbit. NASA’s January announcement described a smaller Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) and a radioisotope power system for both approaches. The power system is intended to provide heat and electricity through the Martian dust-storm season, when reduced sunlight could threaten solar-powered equipment.
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Why NASA is studying both options
Keeping two approaches alive gives NASA a way to compare a design derived from hardware that has already landed on Mars with a design based on commercial landing services. The agency accepted 11 studies from NASA teams and industry in September 2024 before announcing the two-path formulation effort.
“Pursuing two potential paths forward will ensure that NASA is able to bring these samples back from Mars with significant cost and schedule saving compared to the previous plan,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in the January 2025 release.
That sentence is Nelson’s stated rationale for the strategy, not an independently established result. NASA did not publish comparative price or schedule figures for the two concepts in that announcement. The two-track process is best understood as a way to preserve options while engineers compare heritage, technical risk, cost and timing.
The two landing architectures under study
| Comparison point | Sky-crane-derived approach | Commercial landing approach |
|---|---|---|
| Landing heritage | Entry, descent and landing technology derived from the sky-crane systems used by Curiosity and Perseverance. | Commercial landing capabilities would provide the Mars landing system. |
| Landing-system maturity | Builds on a NASA approach that has already delivered two rovers to Mars, although the sample-retrieval vehicle would have different requirements. | Would depend on the selected commercial capability, provider and mission design, none of which NASA identified in the January release. |
| Mars Ascent Vehicle | Both concepts include a smaller MAV to launch the sample container from Mars into orbit. | Both concepts include a smaller MAV to launch the sample container from Mars into orbit. |
| Surface power | Both concepts use a radioisotope power system intended to supply heat and power during the dust-storm season. | Both concepts use a radioisotope power system intended to supply heat and power during the dust-storm season. |
| Orbital handoff | Both concepts send the orbiting container to ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter for capture. | Both concepts send the orbiting container to ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter for capture. |
| Status in January 2025 | One of two concepts NASA said it would study during formulation. | One of two concepts NASA said it would study during formulation. |
Sky-crane-derived landing
The first path would adapt the entry, descent and landing approach used by NASA’s Curiosity and Perseverance rovers. Those missions demonstrated a sky-crane sequence in which a descent stage lowers a rover to the surface before flying away. A heritage design can draw on an established flight approach, but the proposed sample-retrieval vehicle would still have to meet its own mass, landing-site and surface-operation requirements. NASA’s announcement did not say that the earlier rover system could be reused unchanged.
Heritage can reduce the need to develop every landing function from the beginning, but it does not remove the need to qualify the complete vehicle for this mission. The landing system would have to arrive at the right site, survive entry and descent, and deploy equipment capable of locating and handling cached tubes. Its interfaces with the MAV, the sample container and the power system would also have to be tested as one campaign.
Commercial landing capabilities
The second path would use commercial landing capabilities rather than relying entirely on a NASA-derived sky-crane architecture. NASA did not identify a selected provider, a final vehicle or a guaranteed landing date in the January release. “Commercial” therefore describes the intended source of landing capability, not a completed procurement or a flight-ready system.
A commercial approach could give NASA access to a different development model, but the announcement supplied no provider-specific reliability, price or schedule data. The relevant question is not simply whether a commercial lander exists; it is whether a complete landing and retrieval system can meet the mission’s surface, power and sample-handling requirements on the required timetable.
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What the comparison does not establish
NASA supplied no public side-by-side cost, schedule or probability-of-success figures for the two approaches in the announcement. It is reasonable to compare their heritage and development models, but it is not possible from the published figures to name a winner or claim that one is cheaper or faster. The shared MAV, radioisotope power system and Earth-orbit rendezvous elements also mean that choosing a landing architecture would not eliminate the other major parts of the campaign.
How the proposed sample-return campaign would work
The campaign is a chain of separate missions and handoffs. Each step depends on the previous one succeeding, so the landing decision is only one part of the overall return problem.
- Perseverance collects and caches material. The rover landed on Mars on Feb. 18, 2021, and began collecting and caching samples. NASA’s Mars Sample Return science overview describes the material as Martian rock, regolith (loose surface material) and atmospheric samples.
- A later retrieval mission lands on Mars. Under the proposed concept, a retrieval platform would reach the surface using whichever landing architecture NASA eventually selects. The January 2025 announcement kept both landing paths in formulation.
- The cached tubes are gathered. The retrieval hardware would locate and collect the sample tubes prepared by Perseverance. The published plan does not establish the final number of tubes that will be available at the time of pickup.
- The tubes are transferred to an orbiting container. NASA described a container with capacity for 30 tubes. That capacity is a design figure for the planned container, not the measured inventory of Perseverance’s cache.
- The Mars Ascent Vehicle launches the container. A smaller MAV, included in both January 2025 concepts, would carry the container from the Martian surface into Mars orbit.
- ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter captures it. The European Space Agency’s Earth Return Orbiter would rendezvous with and capture the orbiting sample container, then transport it toward Earth.
- Earth laboratories analyze the material. The purpose of returning the samples is to permit detailed laboratory investigation that cannot be performed with the same flexibility by instruments operating on Mars.
Every verb in that sequence is conditional because the return campaign remains a proposed mission. Perseverance has collected and cached material, but the later retrieval, ascent, orbital capture and Earth-return stages have not yet occurred.
Why the interfaces matter
The mission is not a single rover flight with a simple return trip. It requires several vehicles and organizations to exchange hardware successfully. A landing system must put the retrieval equipment on Mars. That equipment must work with the cache left by Perseverance and transfer the tubes into the flight container. The MAV must then place the container in an orbit where ESA’s orbiter can capture it. A weakness or delay in one handoff can affect the entire sequence.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThis is why NASA’s architecture decision covers more than the touchdown itself. The selected landing concept has to support the common elements NASA described in January: the smaller MAV, radioisotope power and the 30-tube orbital container. The European orbiter remains an essential part of the proposed return path regardless of which landing approach is chosen.
What Perseverance has actually contributed
Perseverance is the campaign’s sample-collection and caching mission, not the vehicle that will bring the samples home. It selected and sealed geological material on Mars after its February 2021 landing. Those tubes are intended to preserve a set of samples that a future mission can retrieve.
The distinction matters when interpreting the 30-tube figure. NASA’s January announcement referred to the capacity of the orbiting container. It did not say that Perseverance currently has exactly 30 cached tubes, that every cached tube will be flown, or that the final container design cannot change.
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Until a retrieval lander, MAV and Earth Return Orbiter complete their portions of the mission, the samples remain on Mars. The Jan. 7 announcement therefore represented progress in planning and architecture development rather than a completed return milestone.
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Why scientists want Mars material on Earth
NASA says Earth laboratories could use the returned rock, regolith and atmospheric material to investigate Mars’s geological history, climate evolution and past habitability. The samples could also improve understanding of Mars and the broader solar system and help prepare for future human exploration.
Investigating habitability is not finding life
NASA frames one major objective as investigating whether Mars ever hosted life. That is a scientific question, not a claim that Perseverance has discovered life or that returned samples will necessarily contain biological evidence. Laboratory analysis would test multiple explanations for the material’s composition and history.
Why the return changes the science
Samples on Earth can be examined repeatedly with laboratory instruments and preserved for future studies as methods improve. NASA’s science overview presents that detailed analysis as the reason to bring carefully selected Martian material home rather than limiting investigation to instruments carried by a rover.
Returning material also allows researchers to compare different sample types in one laboratory program. Rock, loose surface material and atmospheric samples can be studied with instruments chosen for each question, while portions can be retained for later work. NASA’s stated goals are therefore broader than a single test for life: they include geological history, climate evolution, habitability, solar-system science and preparation for human exploration.
Why NASA reset the earlier plan
NASA’s April 15, 2024 release said the previous design was likely to cost between $8 billion and $11 billion and return samples in 2040 under the budget assumptions then being used. NASA called both figures unacceptable and sought a different architecture that could return samples sooner at lower cost.
“The bottom line is, an $11 billion budget is too expensive, and a 2040 return date is too far away,” Nelson said in that April 2024 release.
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Those numbers belong to the superseded design discussion. They are not an approved budget or schedule for the two concepts announced in January 2025. The official NASA pages cited here do not establish a current cost baseline, a current return year or a current launch date for the redesign.
The distinction is important because a historical estimate can easily be mistaken for a promise. The 2040 date described what the earlier plan might have produced under then-anticipated funding constraints. The January 2025 announcement was an architecture-development step intended to seek a lower-cost, earlier solution; it did not publish the replacement numbers.
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What the Inspector General documented
A Feb. 28, 2024 NASA Office of Inspector General audit described the older program as a multi-element effort involving Perseverance, a Sample Retrieval Lander, a Mars Ascent Vehicle, an orbiting sample container and ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter. The audit discussed formulation-stage design, cost, schedule and coordination risks. Because it predates NASA’s April 2024 reset and January 2025 redesign, it is useful background on why the program was difficult to baseline, not a current schedule for the mission now under study.
Mars Sample Return timeline and decision points
| Date | Event | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Feb. 18, 2021 | Perseverance landed on Mars. | The rover began the mission that collects and caches samples for possible future retrieval. |
| Feb. 28, 2024 | NASA Office of Inspector General audit published. | The audit documented risks in the earlier multi-element formulation. |
| Apr. 15, 2024 | NASA announced a reset and sought innovative designs. | The agency said the former $8 billion–$11 billion estimate and 2040 return target were unacceptable. |
| September 2024 | NASA accepted 11 studies from NASA teams and industry. | The studies fed the next architecture-development phase. |
| Jan. 7, 2025 | NASA announced two landing options. | Both the sky-crane-derived and commercial approaches would continue through formulation. |
| Second half of 2026 | NASA’s expected window for confirming the program and design. | This was an expectation in the January 2025 announcement, not confirmation that the selection occurred. |
| Current JPL mission listing | JPL describes Mars Sample Return as a proposed mission and does not list a launch date. | The page does not confirm a selected architecture or a firm launch date. |
What remains unresolved
The central unanswered question is which landing architecture, if either, NASA will approve for implementation. The January release gave NASA a process for comparing the options but did not announce a winner. The current JPL status page likewise does not provide a post-announcement selection, approved budget or launch schedule.
- Architecture: NASA has publicly described two candidates, but the final choice is not confirmed on the current JPL page.
- Schedule: The former 2040 date was tied to the superseded design. No replacement return year is established by the cited official pages.
- Cost: The former $8 billion–$11 billion range was historical context, not a current redesign budget.
- Launch date: JPL lists no launch date.
- Sample count: Thirty tubes is the planned orbiting-container capacity, not a confirmed count of tubes that will be returned.
- Provider: NASA has not identified a commercial landing provider or final commercial vehicle in the January announcement.
- Mission readiness: The proposed retrieval, ascent and orbital-capture stages have not yet been completed.
How to interpret the “one step closer” headline
The headline is accurate when read as a development milestone: NASA narrowed the next phase to two concrete landing strategies and began evaluating both instead of relying on the older plan. It becomes misleading if it is read as a final mission approval, a guaranteed cost reduction or evidence that samples are already on their way to Earth.
The practical sequence is now clear. Perseverance supplies the cached material; a future retrieval landing system must collect it; a MAV must launch it into orbit; and ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter must capture it for the journey home. NASA’s January 2025 announcement addressed the landing choice within that chain. The rest of the chain remains proposed until NASA publishes a confirmed architecture, budget and schedule.
What readers should watch next
The most consequential future announcement would be NASA’s formal confirmation of the program and design. That announcement would need to identify the selected landing architecture and provide a new cost and schedule baseline. Until then, references to the old 2040 return date or the $8 billion–$11 billion estimate should be labeled as historical.
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Readers should also distinguish an architecture announcement from a launch announcement. Selecting a landing approach would be a major engineering and management decision, but it would not mean the retrieval vehicle, MAV, orbital container and Earth Return Orbiter were already built or operating. A firm launch date would require a separate, current NASA schedule.
Common interpretation mistakes
- Calling the two concepts finalists that NASA has already ranked: NASA said both would be studied; it did not publish a winner or ranking.
- Treating 30 tubes as Perseverance’s confirmed inventory: The number describes planned container capacity.
- Reporting 2040 as the current return year: That date belonged to the superseded design discussed in April 2024.
- Assuming commercial means ready to fly: NASA did not name a provider or flight-ready vehicle.
- Describing a life discovery: NASA’s objective is to investigate past habitability and whether Mars ever hosted life, not to announce that life has been found.
- Equating planning progress with returned material: Perseverance’s samples remain on Mars until the proposed retrieval and return chain operates.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Mars samples come back to Earth?
NASA has not published a current return year for the redesigned mission. The 2040 date was an estimate for the superseded plan, and JPL currently does not list a launch date.
Did NASA choose the sky-crane or commercial landing plan?
Not in the Jan. 7, 2025 announcement. NASA said it would study both approaches during formulation and expected to confirm the program and design in the second half of 2026. The current JPL mission page does not confirm that selection.
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Perseverance has been collecting and caching Martian rock, regolith (loose surface material) and atmospheric samples for possible future retrieval.
How will NASA bring Mars samples back to Earth?
Under the proposed sequence, a later landing system would retrieve Perseverance’s tubes, transfer them to a container, and use a Mars Ascent Vehicle to launch that container into Mars orbit. ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter would capture it and carry it toward Earth for laboratory study.
What does the 30-tube figure mean?
It is the planned capacity NASA described for the orbiting sample container. It is not a confirmed count of tubes currently cached by Perseverance or a guarantee that 30 tubes will be returned.
Why use radioisotope power instead of solar panels?
NASA said both January 2025 concepts would use a radioisotope power system to provide heat and electricity through the Martian dust-storm season, when reduced sunlight could challenge solar-powered equipment.
How much will Mars Sample Return cost?
NASA’s $8 billion–$11 billion estimate came from the former design discussed in April 2024. NASA has not published an approved current cost baseline for the two concepts announced in January 2025.
Does Mars Sample Return prove that life existed on Mars?
No. NASA says returned samples could help investigate whether Mars ever hosted life. That is an objective for scientific analysis, not a discovery claim.
The Bottom Line
NASA’s January 2025 decision to study two landing architectures is a real planning milestone, but Mars Sample Return remains proposed. The sky-crane-derived and commercial approaches still require comparison and selection, while the cost, return year and launch date remain unconfirmed. Perseverance’s samples are still on Mars, awaiting a future retrieval, ascent and orbital handoff.
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