According to Alinea Analytics analyst Rhys Elliott, Steam is on track to surpass $20 billion in revenue in 2026. That is a forecast, not a Valve announcement or a final year-end result. Alinea estimates the platform brought in $16.5 billion through September, with a strong third quarter and high-profile releases including Wardogs and The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Remastered among the factors drawing attention.
What is the $20 billion Steam forecast?
In an October 1, 2026 post, Alinea Analytics’ head of market analysis, Rhys Elliott, forecast that Steam would “blow past $20B” in revenue for the first time that year. He based the prediction on Alinea’s estimates through September and the anticipated fourth-quarter release slate. The forecast is not a guarantee, and Valve has not disclosed an official 2026 revenue total. Alinea’s September estimates and forecast
What does Alinea estimate Steam earned through September?
Alinea put Steam’s estimated revenue at $16.5 billion for the first nine months of 2026, compared with $14.5 billion for the same period in 2025. It estimated third-quarter revenue at $5.5 billion, 12% higher year over year.
For September specifically, Alinea’s original post estimated $1.7 billion in Steam revenue, calling it the platform’s best September to date and 13% above the previous September record. These are third-party estimates, not audited figures or Valve-published accounts.
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Why do reports give different September figures?
GamesRadar’s October 2 report gives September revenue as $1.6 billion, while Alinea’s October 1 post says $1.7 billion. Both report the $5.5 billion Q3 estimate and $16.5 billion through September. The available reporting does not explain the difference, so the figures should not be averaged or treated as confirmed revenue. For the original estimate, Alinea’s own post is the direct source; the conflicting report is available from GamesRadar.
How do Wardogs and The Witcher 3 fit into the story?
Wardogs
Alinea estimated that Wardogs generated $86.9 million on Steam in September after its September 10 early-access launch. The same post said the game had passed $100 million in Steam revenue overall by that point; that cumulative figure includes revenue from before September. These are Alinea estimates, not figures released by Valve or the game’s publisher.
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The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Remastered
Alinea described The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Remastered as a free upgrade for existing owners and estimated 130,000 copies sold across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox on the day of the remaster’s launch. That is a combined cross-platform estimate, not a Steam-only sales figure, and the reported free upgrade means it should not be read as 130,000 paid remaster purchases. Alinea’s post includes the game-level estimates.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do historical Witcher 3 sales figures show?
In its Q1 2025 earnings transcript, CD Projekt said The Witcher 3 had surpassed 60 million copies sold globally and generated PLN 2.4 billion in revenue over its first decade. These are company-reported historical figures as of May 2025, not current 2026 totals or Steam-specific numbers. CD Projekt’s Q1 2025 earnings transcript.
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- Valve is entering the gaming console marketplace with the new Steam Deck, a console geared towards PC gamers. The Steam Deck can be docked to a monitor, and used as a PC, or docked to a TV.
- Players can play a huge variety of games at any time with the comfort of a console and the freedom of a PC. Not anti-glare screen.
- Like the name suggests, the Steam Deck will include upgraded 1TB storage, and will include a carrying case. A micro SD slot will also enable expanded storage.
- Valve partnered with AMD to create a specialized APU optimized for handheld gaming, and Valve says the chip will deliver performance to run AAA gaming titles.
- The Steam Deck is outfitted with a 7-inch touchscreen, and two trackpads under the control sticks that allow gamers to operate games never designed outside of mouse and keyboard capabilities.
What the forecast does—and does not—tell you
- It is an outlook, not a result. The $20 billion figure is Elliott’s prediction based on Alinea’s estimates and an expected release slate.
- The reported revenue figures are estimates. Valve has not confirmed the 2026 totals cited here.
- Game-level figures are not interchangeable. Wardogs’ September estimate is Steam-specific; the Witcher remaster’s 130,000-copy estimate spans three platforms.
- The September estimate has a reporting discrepancy. Alinea says $1.7 billion; GamesRadar says $1.6 billion.
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