GPL licensing is declining in relative prominence across several measures, but it is not disappearing. Permissive licenses such as MIT and Apache-2.0 lead many package ecosystems, while GPL remains a major license family. The answer depends on what is being counted: new package releases, active repositories, license-page visits, or something else.
What the available numbers say
The figures below point in a broadly similar direction, but they measure different things and should not be combined into one global market share.
| Source and year | What it measures | Reported result |
|---|---|---|
| Open Source Initiative, 2024 and 2025 | Pageviews of individual OSI license pages; this measures attention, not software adoption. | GPL-2.0 pageviews fell from 83,800 in 2024 to 76,000 in 2025. GPL-3.0 fell from 72,400 to 55,000. MIT and Apache-2.0 had much larger totals in 2025. |
| Kaiyuanshe, 2023 China Open Source Report | GitHub active repositories and license trends. | The report counted nearly 7.7 million active repositories using open-source licenses, or 8.76% of all active repositories. It says GPLv2 and GPLv3 usage declined overall since 2022, while AGPLv3 increased year over year. |
| Mend, 2024 | A proprietary dataset; the figures are not universal market shares. | Approximate 2023 dataset shares: GPL-3.0, 3.1%; GPL-2.0, 1.9%; and LGPL-2.1, 1.4%. |
| MSR 2024 academic study | Package-management-platform data. | MIT and Apache-2.0 together exceeded 70% on every studied platform and 85% in RubyGems and Cargo. GPL-3.0-only was the leading strong-copyleft license in the study’s aggregated strong-copyleft data, at 37.61%. |
The package-platform findings are the most direct evidence here about the mix of licenses in package ecosystems. They do not establish the share of all software worldwide: repository selection, package-manager coverage, duplicate projects, license detection, and treatment of dependencies can all affect the result.
Is GPL dying, or are developers moving away from it?
“Decline” is best understood as a relative shift in several datasets, not proof that established GPL projects have switched licenses or that GPL use is collapsing everywhere. A growing number of permissively licensed new projects can reduce GPL’s share even while long-running GPL software continues to be used and maintained.
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The available measurements also have different denominators. OSI pageviews indicate interest in license pages, not releases. Repository counts reflect a particular platform and activity definition. Mend’s percentages describe its own corpus. The MSR study describes package registries. None supplies a harmonized global GPL percentage for 2026.
Why permissive licenses lead many package ecosystems
MIT and Apache-2.0 are permissive: they generally allow broad reuse, including in proprietary products, subject to their license conditions. That can make them attractive to developers who want to reduce friction for downstream users, commercial adopters, or dependencies incorporated into larger projects. Apache-2.0 also includes express patent-license provisions, which can matter to some projects.
GPL licenses are reciprocal, or copyleft: in circumstances covered by the license, distributing a derivative work requires compliance with source-sharing and other terms. Those obligations are a deliberate choice for projects seeking to preserve freedoms for downstream recipients. They can be less convenient for organizations with particular distribution or compatibility requirements.
Package ecosystems amplify these preferences. A library intended for use as a dependency may benefit from the broadest possible compatibility, and registry statistics can therefore tilt toward permissive licensing. That pattern does not necessarily describe operating systems, applications, embedded software, or the overall stock of code in active use.
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GPL, LGPL, and AGPL are not interchangeable
- GPLv2 and GPLv3: distinct versions of the GNU General Public License. The China report discusses declines for both versions; the MSR study specifically identifies GPL-3.0-only in its strong-copyleft results.
- LGPL: the GNU Lesser General Public License, a separate license family member with different terms, often selected for libraries. Mend reports LGPL-2.1 separately, so its percentage should not be folded into GPL-2.0 or GPL-3.0.
- AGPLv3: a separate license intended to address use of covered software over a network. The China report says AGPLv3 usage increased year over year even as GPLv2 and GPLv3 declined overall.
These differences help explain why “GPL is declining” can hide divergent trends. A reduction in GPLv2 or GPLv3 does not imply a matching fall in every reciprocal license, and the rise in AGPLv3 reported for one dataset should not be generalized to all repositories or regions.
Should a new project still use GPL?
Yes, when reciprocal sharing is part of the project’s purpose and the team is prepared to manage the license’s obligations. Choosing a license is a governance decision, not a popularity contest. Consider these questions before choosing:
- Do you want downstream distributors to preserve source-sharing freedoms? A GPL license may fit that goal better than a permissive license.
- Will others mainly consume the project as a library or dependency? Check how the intended ecosystem and its users handle license compatibility; permissive terms may be easier for broad reuse.
- Is network use central to the concern? Evaluate whether AGPL’s approach is relevant rather than assuming GPLv2 or GPLv3 addresses every network-use scenario.
- Which version and compatibility constraints apply? GPLv2 and GPLv3 are not interchangeable, and dependencies can impose additional compatibility considerations. Review the full license texts and obtain legal advice for consequential distribution decisions.
What the trend means for open source overall
GPL’s relative decline is not evidence that open source itself is in retreat. The Linux Foundation’s announcement of Census III describes open source as ubiquitous and increasingly influential, while emphasizing governance and security work. Permissive licensing can expand at the same time that GPL-licensed infrastructure remains important: they serve different project goals and distribution models.
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