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Use a nuclear blast simulator to explore how a hypothetical scenario’s inputs affect modeled effect zones—not to predict damage at a particular address or guide emergency action. Choose the scenario, read the assumptions behind each overlay, and treat rings and casualty totals as estimates. During an actual emergency, follow current official information and instructions.

How to run a scenario

NukeSimulator’s interactive page provides controls for location, yield, burst conditions, effect thresholds and fallout assumptions. Follow this sequence to make the output easier to interpret and compare.

  1. Set the location. Choose a city or move the marker to the place you want to examine. The location gives the visualization geographic context; it does not make the result a street-level assessment.
  2. Set the yield. Enter a yield or select a listed weapon. Record the value and units so you can compare scenarios consistently.
  3. Choose the burst conditions. Select an airburst or surface burst, and set burst height if available. A tool’s burst-height optimization maximizes a modeled effect radius; it does not predict how a weapon would be used.
  4. Select the overlays and thresholds. Choose the effects you want to view, such as blast overpressure, prompt radiation, thermal effects, fireball or fallout. For a fallout plume, set the available wind and fission assumptions.
  5. Run the scenario and inspect its legend. Interpret each ring as a modeled threshold or range, not a precise boundary separating safe from damaged locations.
  6. Compare deliberately. Hold the effect threshold, burst type and height, and fallout assumptions constant when comparing yields. Change one input at a time and identify what changed; do not present one output as a definitive casualty forecast.

See the current NukeSimulator controls for the options exposed by the live page.

What the overlays mean

Blast overpressure

Overpressure rings represent modeled pressure thresholds associated with different levels of structural damage. NukeSimulator describes its default 20, 5 and 1 psi rings as markers for heavy, moderate and light damage, respectively. Those categories are model outputs, not guarantees about every building inside a ring.

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Thermal radiation

Thermal overlays model heat-pulse thresholds associated with burn probabilities or ignition assumptions. Visibility, cloud cover, haze, shielding and line of sight can affect real exposure. NukeSimulator’s terrain-shadow feature addresses some line-of-sight limits for a thermal flash, but it does not turn the other effect rings into a street-by-street damage map.

Prompt ionizing radiation

Prompt radiation contours represent initial neutron and gamma radiation dose. NukeSimulator says this effect is more significant relative to blast and thermal effects for smaller yields. A contour is still a modeled dose boundary, not a complete account of an individual’s exposure.

Fallout

The simulator models a fallout plume for a surface burst using wind and fission assumptions. Its methodology calls the approach simplified: actual fallout patterns depend on winds at different altitudes, rain and terrain. A displayed plume should not be treated as a live forecast or as emergency guidance.

Casualty estimates

NukeSimulator combines a gridded population dataset with casualty rates drawn from a historical study. Its methodology warns that the resulting figures are “a rough order of magnitude, not a prediction.” The estimates omit shelters, firestorms, fallout and collapse of medical care, among other interacting factors.

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The simulator’s descriptions of these calculations and caveats are in its published methodology.

Why a simulator cannot predict local outcomes

Effect rings idealize the real environment

NukeSimulator says its core effect rings use flat, open-ground models. Terrain, buildings, street geometry and shielding can change effects, so the same nominal distance from a detonation does not imply identical conditions everywhere. Official HHS REMM guidance also describes nuclear-detonation damage-zone maps as idealized: circles are unlikely to be perfectly symmetrical, and their borders are likely to be less distinct. The page attributes its representative maps to FEMA’s Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, third edition (2022). Read the HHS REMM explanation.

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Casualty totals rely on coarse population inputs

NukeSimulator says it uses the European Commission Joint Research Centre’s GHS-POP 2025 population grid at 30 arc-seconds—about 1 km resolution—and applies casualty rates from the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment’s The Effects of Nuclear War (1979). A grid cannot necessarily represent who is present at a specific time: for example, a daytime strike on a business district could affect more people than a residential population grid suggests. The methodology also notes that major interacting hazards are left out.

Results outside the stated yield range are less reliable

NukeSimulator says its models are calibrated for yields from roughly 1 kiloton to 20 megatons. It describes results outside that range as extrapolated and less reliable, with a hard cap of 100 megatons. This is the scope stated for NukeSimulator, not a universal accuracy guarantee for every simulator.

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How to compare simulators responsibly

Matching colors or ring labels across tools does not mean they use the same calculation. Before treating outputs as comparable, check the assumptions each one publishes:

  • Which effects and physical models it includes.
  • Which population data it uses, at what geographic resolution, and how it estimates casualties.
  • How it handles terrain, buildings, shielding and weather.
  • Which yield range it is designed for and what its output is intended to represent.

NukeSimulator lists The Effects of Nuclear Weapons by Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan, third edition (1977), as a core reference for its methodology. For a separate caution about emergency use, see the NUKEMAP FAQ.

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