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The ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Index jumped to 77.9 in September 2026 from 71.1 in August. That is an official increase of 6.8 index points; expressed as a change relative to August’s reading, it is about 9.6%—the arithmetic behind “10% higher.” It is not a 10% rise in prices or a forecast that consumer inflation will surge.
What surged—and what the number means
The gauge is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI Prices Index, a monthly diffusion index tracking whether surveyed manufacturers report higher, lower, or unchanged prices for raw materials. ISM reported a September reading of 77.9, up from 71.1 in August, a 6.8-point increase. The relative calculation is (77.9 − 71.1) ÷ 71.1, or about 9.6%; ISM reports the change as 6.8 index points, not a 9.6% price increase. ISM’s September 2026 report provides the readings.
A diffusion index captures the direction and breadth of reported change, not the size of each company’s price change. A reading of 77.9 therefore does not mean manufacturers’ input costs rose 77.9%, nor does it translate directly into an inflation rate.
How broad was September’s pressure?
More respondents reported higher prices: 58.6% in September, compared with 46.2% in August, according to ISM. The pressure also spanned industries: 16 industries reported higher raw-material prices, and none reported lower prices. This breadth makes the move a notable signal of upstream cost pressure, rather than a reading driven only by one industry.
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What ISM identified as the drivers
ISM attributed the September reading to increases in steel and aluminum prices, tariffs on imported goods, and petroleum-based product costs amid the Middle East conflict. Susan Spence, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said those factors were driving the index in the September report. These are ISM’s reported explanations, not a separately quantified breakdown of how much each factor contributed.
Does this mean consumer inflation is coming back?
Not by itself. ISM says that, over time, a Prices Index above 52.8 is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) for Intermediate Materials. That is a relationship to an upstream producer-price measure, not to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and it does not specify the size or timing of any price changes farther along the supply chain.
Manufacturers may absorb higher costs, pass some of them on to business customers, or eventually pass them on to consumers; this reading alone cannot show which outcome will occur. The available September figures do not establish how much input pressure, if any, will reach consumer prices or when.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How this gauge fits with other manufacturing price measures
These measures answer related but different questions, and their numerical readings should not be compared as though they shared one scale.
Quick Recap
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| Measure | What it tracks | Timing and what it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Index | A monthly national survey diffusion index of manufacturers’ raw-material price direction. | ISM’s September 2026 reading was 77.9. It signals widespread reported input-price increases, not their size in percent. |
| Federal Reserve manufacturing-survey average | An average of the ISM and Dallas, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing prices-paid surveys. | The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 report presents observations through June, so it predates the September ISM jump. It provides broader survey context, not confirmation of September conditions. Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy Report, July 2026. |
| BLS PPI for Intermediate Materials | Producer-price data for intermediate materials, rather than a survey of whether prices are rising or falling. | ISM’s stated threshold relationship concerns this measure over time. It is distinct from consumer inflation; no September PPI value is established by the cited ISM report. |
What to watch next
- Whether subsequent ISM readings remain elevated or reverse; one monthly jump does not establish a lasting trend.
- Whether the separate PPI data for Intermediate Materials show corresponding realized producer-price increases.
- Whether later consumer-price data show pass-through. The ISM index alone cannot answer that question.
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