No. A February 2018 report found that Bitcoin was still accepted by every vendor in its sample. Litecoin was the most accepted alternative, followed by Dash. The headline’s “dethrone” language described a forecast for the next six to 12 months—not a finding that either coin had already replaced Bitcoin.
What Recorded Future actually found
Recorded Future manually examined 150 prominent message boards, marketplaces, and illicit services. It reported that all vendors in its sample accepted Bitcoin. Among vendors that had implemented alternative payment methods, the reported acceptance figures were:
| Alternative cryptocurrency | Share of vendors offering alternatives that accepted it |
|---|---|
| Litecoin | 30% (Recorded Future, 2018) |
| Dash | 20% (Recorded Future, 2018) |
| Bitcoin Cash | 13% (Recorded Future, 2018) |
| Ethereum | 9% (Recorded Future, 2018) |
| Monero | 6% (Recorded Future, 2018) |
Those percentages do not describe all vendors in the sample, every underground market, or current acceptance. They refer specifically to the subset of vendors offering alternative payment methods. Recorded Future said vendor decisions were the primary factor determining which options were implemented. Its report summarized the ranking this way: “Final results show that alongside Bitcoin, Litecoin is the second most accepted cryptocurrency, followed by Dash.” (Recorded Future)
Why the report predicted a shift
The report described complaints from users and vendors about Bitcoin transaction costs and delays. SecurityWeek’s February 13, 2018 account said vendors sometimes waited for three confirmations and relayed the report’s claim that fees could sometimes reach 30% of a transaction’s value. That figure describes the circumstances discussed in the report; it is not a representative Bitcoin fee rate. (SecurityWeek)
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Recorded Future expected payment options to diversify and forecast that Bitcoin might lose some dominance over the following six to 12 months, while remaining important. It also predicted: “On the other hand, Litecoin and Dash will take their place next to Bitcoin as the everyday payment currencies of the dark web.” That was the report’s outlook, not evidence that the forecast came true.
What the headline leaves out
A forum poll was not the same as vendor acceptance
The coverage also referred to a poll asking forum members “which currency should be adopted next.” A preference expressed by forum users is not the same measure as a vendor actually accepting a currency. The acceptance figures came from the vendor analysis, and the report identified vendors as the main decision-makers for implemented payment options.
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The findings were a snapshot, not a current ranking
The figures describe a manually researched 2018 sample of 150 sites. They cannot establish how widely these currencies are accepted today or provide a globally comparable current ranking. The available later comparison is narrower: a UNODC report on Southeast Asian darknet markets says Bitcoin remained the most widely used cryptocurrency in the markets it discussed. Because the geography, period, and data differ, that finding neither establishes a global trend nor directly confirms or disproves Recorded Future’s forecast. (UNODC)
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the report said about privacy
Recorded Future characterized Litecoin’s core technology as close to Bitcoin’s and said transactions on both are transparent. It contrasted the convenience and supporting infrastructure it associated with Litecoin with Monero’s privacy features in English-speaking underground communities. These are the report’s comparisons, not a current technical audit or a recommendation.
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UNODC describes Bitcoin as pseudonymous: transactions leave a trail on its public blockchain that can be traced with appropriate tools. That does not mean a public address automatically reveals the identity of the person using it. (UNODC)
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