Penguin colonies decline for different reasons in different places. For emperor penguins in Antarctica, early loss of the sea ice they breed on can expose chicks to the sea before they have waterproof feathers. For African penguins in southern Africa, reduced prey availability, fishing pressure and disease are among the concerns. Scientists track these changes by combining satellite images, drone photography, direct counts and ecological sampling; no single method answers every question.
Why are penguin colonies declining?
The causes depend on the species and its environment. Evidence about emperor penguins points especially to unstable breeding habitat, while the cited account of African penguins focuses on food availability at sea. These examples should not be treated as a complete explanation for declines in every penguin species.
Emperor penguins: loss of stable breeding ice
Emperor penguins breed on fast ice: sea ice attached to the coast, shoals or grounded icebergs. It must remain in place through much of the breeding cycle. If it breaks up before chicks have developed waterproof feathers, the chicks can be swept or forced into the sea too early, where mortality can be high. The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) linked this mechanism to breeding failures observed in 2022 and 2023.
In its 2026 Red List announcement, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reported that the emperor penguin had been moved to Endangered. The assessment identifies human-induced climate change, particularly early sea-ice breakup and loss, as the principal threat. That is the assessment’s main identified threat, not proof that every colony faces identical pressures or that ice is the only pressure affecting the species.
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African penguins: reduced food availability at sea
BirdLife International’s November 2024 account describes a different problem for African penguins: diminished access to prey, including sardines and anchovies. It identifies competition with commercial purse-seine fishing and climate-related changes in prey distribution as concerns, and also mentions disease as a contributor. This species-specific evidence should not be applied to Antarctic penguins without separate support.
BirdLife South Africa’s Seabird Conservation Programme Manager Alistair McInnes explained why birds visible at a colony can mask risks at sea: “The main issue is their food supply and other threats at sea, which people don’t see, when people visit colonies at Stony Point or Boulders, they see the birds in large groups and don’t understand the level of threat or what’s affecting the penguin populations.”
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What do the reported decline figures actually measure?
Breeding failure at a colony is not the same statistic as a change in the total population. Affected-colony counts do not mean that the same percentage of all penguins died. Likewise, a regional population trend should not be described as a global estimate.
| Finding | Scope and what it means |
|---|---|
| 14 of 66 emperor penguin colonies affected by breeding failure in 2023; 19 colonies, almost 30%, in 2022 | BAS, 2024. These are counts of colonies affected by breeding failure, not estimates of the share of all emperor penguins that died. |
| 13 of 27 East Antarctic colonies studied were at risk of reduced or complete breeding failure; nine of those 13 experienced such failure at least once | Australian Antarctic Program, 2024. The results cover the study sample and its six-year period, not all Antarctic colonies. |
| 22% decline in emperor penguin numbers from 2009 to 2024 | BAS, 2025. A regional satellite-image analysis covering a sector encompassing the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea—not a global estimate for all emperor penguins. |
Colony locations can vary in relation to sea ice, making trends harder to model. The Australian Antarctic Program notes that imagery is most informative when combined, where possible, with ground and aerial counts.
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How do scientists count penguins in remote colonies?
Monitoring is a chain of complementary methods. Satellite imagery can locate colonies and describe habitat over large, remote areas; drones can capture detailed images of aggregations; and direct ground or aerial surveys help estimate animal numbers. Diet and disease sampling answers different ecological questions and is not, by itself, an abundance count.
| Method | What it can show | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Satellite imagery | Finds remote colonies and allows researchers to revisit their locations and assess surrounding habitat, including local fast-ice conditions. Emperor penguin guano can stand out against snow and ice, helping reveal breeding sites. | Some colonies shift location, so repeated mapping matters. Images identify and characterize sites; they do not automatically provide a direct count of every bird. |
| Drone and aerial photography | Captures colony images for counting or estimating birds across aggregations. | Counts need an appropriate method and validation; aerial imagery complements rather than replaces direct observations. |
| Ground counts and repeated site surveys | Provide direct observations and a local time series that can help interpret changes visible in imagery. | Access and site-protection rules can limit when and how surveys are conducted. |
| Ecological sampling and disease surveillance | Guano sampling can support genetic analysis of diet, while health monitoring can look for signs of highly pathogenic avian influenza. | These methods provide information about diet or health, not a colony abundance estimate on their own. |
Finding colonies and assessing ice from space
BAS reported finding four new emperor penguin breeding sites in 2024 using satellite imagery. The Australian Antarctic Program describes using medium- and high-resolution imagery to locate colonies and characterize local fast-ice conditions. A satellite view can extend monitoring to places that are difficult to visit, but interpretation still depends on repeat observations and knowledge of where colonies form relative to the ice.
Turning images into counts
Drones can provide detailed images of colonies that researchers can review and count. In NOAA Fisheries’ description of an Adélie penguin project, drone imagery was used for larger aggregations and hand counts for smaller ones. BAS’s Polar Observatory “Penguin detectives” citizen-science effort asked volunteers to validate counts from drone images, illustrating how human review can be part of image-based counting.
NOAA Fisheries’ 2024–25 South Shetland Islands survey included ground and drone surveys of major penguin colonies. Its report said final animal counts and analyses related to highly pathogenic avian influenza were still pending at publication, so its fieldwork should not be mistaken for finalized estimates. NOAA’s Copacabana situation reports for 2023–2024 also describe collecting penguin guano for genetic diet analysis and monitoring for signs of the disease; those investigations inform diet and health, not abundance by themselves.
Why direct, long-running counts still matter
The Australian Antarctic Program reported in July 2025 that emperor penguin counts at Taylor Glacier have been ongoing since 1957. The protected site has restricted access, so counts take place under specific limits. A sustained local series adds context that a satellite image alone cannot supply, while satellite coverage can help put site-level observations into a wider geographic picture.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should a reported penguin trend be interpreted?
- Check the species and place. A finding about emperor penguins in East Antarctica does not automatically describe African penguins or other species.
- Check what was counted. A count of colonies with breeding failure, a direct animal count and a population trend are different measures.
- Check the period and coverage. A study sample, a local time series and a regional satellite analysis have different geographic and temporal limits.
- Check whether results are final. A field survey whose analysis is pending is not yet a completed population estimate.
For emperor penguins, the central concern in the cited evidence is that climate-driven changes to fast ice can disrupt breeding, with outcomes varying among colonies. For African penguins, the cited evidence emphasizes food supply and other threats at sea. Monitoring combines remote sensing with direct surveys and targeted sampling because each reveals a different part of the problem.
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