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No single reading can capture the health of the Baltic Sea. The most defensible approach is to combine indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem condition with measures of major pressures—especially eutrophication and hazardous substances—and interpret each result against its own threshold and sub-basin context. HELCOM’s latest completed holistic assessment found little to no improvement during 2016–2021; it is not a real-time report on conditions in 2026.

Which indicators should be included?

A useful indicator set answers three connected questions: what condition is the ecosystem in, what pressures may be affecting it, and where and when was the condition measured? HELCOM organizes its Baltic Sea assessment around ecosystem status, pressures and human well-being. National monitoring and regional data feed individual indicator evaluations, which in turn contribute to thematic assessments and the overall synthesis. HELCOM’s assessment approach explains this layered structure.

  • Biodiversity and ecosystem components: use status measures for relevant habitats and ecological groups. These help show ecological condition rather than just the presence of a pressure.
  • Eutrophication: combine nutrient conditions with biological and oxygen-related responses. Nutrients alone do not show the full ecological effect.
  • Hazardous substances: track contaminants in appropriate materials, such as biota and sediments, and compare results with regional thresholds.
  • Other relevant pressures: depending on the question and available evidence, consider marine litter, underwater noise, non-indigenous species, climate, land use and resource extraction.

The balance depends on the assessment question: an indicator should be ecologically relevant, measurable with available monitoring, linked to a meaningful pressure or ecosystem response, and interpreted at the spatial and temporal scale it represents. HELCOM’s indicator portal provides the indicator evaluations and thresholds.

How do eutrophication indicators work together?

Eutrophication is best assessed as a chain of pressure and ecological responses, not by nutrients in isolation. HELCOM describes a progression that can include increased chlorophyll and opportunistic algae, reduced water clarity, more organic matter settling on the seabed, oxygen consumption and possible oxygen depletion, and changes in species composition. HELCOM’s eutrophication assessment describes these symptoms and reports that eutrophication remained a major problem in 2016–2021, with no clear signs of recovery.

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Read nutrient indicators alongside biological measures such as chlorophyll or algal response, water-clarity measures, seabed organic matter and oxygen conditions. Together they help distinguish a nutrient pressure from its downstream effects. Not every indicator will apply equally in every area, so retain the relevant sub-basin and threshold when comparing results.

What do hazardous-substance indicators show—and miss?

Contaminant measurements depend on the substance and the material tested. HELCOM’s HOLAS 3 integrated contamination status identified PBDEs in biota, TBT in sediments, mercury in biota and copper in sediments among the main contributors. In the assessment, bad or poor hazardous-substances status applied to roughly 80% of 57 assessed spatial units, and only one open-sea assessment unit had good status. These are findings for HELCOM’s assessed units, not a statement that 80% of the Baltic Sea’s area is contaminated or that every potentially harmful chemical was measured. See HELCOM’s hazardous-substances assessment.

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Coverage is a key limitation: HELCOM notes that only a small fraction of potentially hazardous substances is measured. A favorable result for the substances and matrices monitored therefore cannot establish that all contaminants are absent or under control.

How should indicator results be compared?

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When reading or comparing results, check the following for each measure:

  • What it measures: ecosystem status, a pressure, or a response to that pressure.
  • Where it applies: the sub-basin or assessment unit, and whether that geography matches the comparison being made.
  • When it applies: the monitoring or assessment period. Different periods should not be presented as simultaneous conditions.
  • What benchmark is used: the applicable indicator threshold, including any subregional variation.
  • What is not covered: uncertainty, gaps in monitoring and any limits on the substances, species or habitats represented.

These checks explain why an isolated headline measure can mislead: it may describe only one pressure, one ecological response, one location or one period. A portfolio makes those boundaries visible.

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What is the latest completed Baltic Sea assessment?

HELCOM’s third holistic assessment, HOLAS 3, covers 2016–2021 and was published in 2023. Its executive summary states: “Little to no improvement of the Baltic Sea environment occurred during the assessment period.” The assessment also identifies climate change impacts and biodiversity degradation alongside eutrophication, pollution, land use and resource extraction. The official State of the Baltic Sea 2023 overview describes its findings and scope.

HELCOM lists HOLAS 4 as covering 2022–2027, with results expected in 2029. Until those results are published, HOLAS 3 remains the latest completed holistic assessment in HELCOM’s official overview; its 2016–2021 findings should not be described as measurements of current 2026 conditions.

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