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The reported “nearly 70%” does not mean plants absorb 70% of the Colorado River’s water. It is the share of the gap between snowpack-based streamflow predictions and observed streamflow that researchers attributed to warmer, drier springs in 26 Upper Colorado River headwater basins. Their explanation is that with less spring rain, vegetation can draw more heavily on snowmelt, while sunnier conditions may also increase plant growth and evaporation from soil.
What the 70% figure actually measures
Since 2000, observed streamflow in the basins studied has consistently fallen below predictions based on snowpack. A 2024 University of Washington report says researchers attributed nearly 70% of that prediction-versus-observation discrepancy to recent warmer, drier spring conditions. The figure is about a forecast gap, not a fraction of the Colorado River’s total water supply or a direct measurement of water taken up by plants. University of Washington, August 16, 2024.
How drier springs can reduce runoff
Snowpack is only part of the water picture. Spring precipitation also affects how much meltwater ultimately reaches streams. In the study’s explanation, less spring rain is associated with fewer clouds and sunnier conditions. Vegetation may then grow more, rely more on snowmelt, and leave less meltwater to flow into streams; evaporation from bare soil may also rise. This is a research explanation for the mismatch between predicted and observed flow, not a direct accounting of the destination of every unit of water.
The study examined spring changes across 26 Upper Colorado River Basin headwater basins, using precipitation and streamflow records dating back to 1964 and modeling likely plant water consumption. Its estimates depend on the assumption that plants can access enough snowmelt even when precipitation is below average.
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Why lower-elevation basins may be more affected
The University of Washington report says reduced spring rain was associated with lower streamflow in every basin studied, with a more pronounced deficit at lower elevations. The authors’ proposed explanation is that snow at lower elevations is likely to melt earlier, giving plants a longer period in which to grow and consume meltwater. This result applies to the basins in the study; it should not be generalized as an identical effect in every basin, plant community, or year. University of Washington report.
Why snowpack forecasts can miss spring’s influence
Water managers make snowpack-based estimates in early April, before the spring season has played out. As senior author Jessica Lundquist put it, “the problem with doing these calculations in April is that obviously spring hasn’t occurred yet.” If spring rain helps determine how much snowmelt reaches streams, forecasting that rain could improve estimates made earlier in the season. Lead author Daniel Hogan said the findings emphasize studying “the whole snow season, not just when the snowpack is the deepest.”
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How this differs from snow sublimation
The same University of Washington report says a related analysis attributed about 10% of the missing water to snow sublimation—the direct transition of snow into water vapor. That result helped distinguish sublimation from the proposed spring-precipitation explanation, but the 10% and nearly 70% figures should not be added or treated as exhaustive shares of one common water budget without confirmation from the underlying studies. University of Washington report.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What “water consumption” means in this context
In water science, evapotranspiration includes evaporation from soil and vegetation surfaces as well as water released by plants through transpiration. The USGS describes estimating agricultural water consumption in the Lower Colorado River Basin with Landsat-resolution remote sensing and local weather data. That is useful background on how water use can be estimated, but it covers a different geography and application from the Upper Basin spring-rain study. U.S. Geological Survey, June 25, 2019.
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