If a prediction market’s result looks wrong, your options depend on the contract’s exact settlement rules and whether the outcome is still pending, proposed, or final. A delay is not proof of an error; a challenge window may close quickly; and complaint channels do not guarantee that a finalized result will be reversed.
First determine whether the result is pending, proposed, or final
These are different situations. A market that has not settled may still be waiting for the source named in its rules. A proposed outcome may be open to challenge under the venue’s procedure. Once a platform marks a market resolved, the available sources do not establish a universal right to appeal or reopen it.
Start with the market’s complete rules, not just its title or a general account of what happened. Check the precise outcome criterion, named verification source, cutoff and determination date, time zone, and any tie, correction, or fallback terms. Kalshi says its contract terms specify the criteria and verification source; CFTC customer guidance says settlement information should be transparent, including how and by whom determinations are made. CFTC customer advisory on prediction markets
Can you dispute a Polymarket resolution?
Polymarket says its markets are resolved by the UMA Optimistic Oracle according to the market’s predefined rules. A resolution begins when someone proposes an outcome and posts a USDC.e bond. The platform’s help page describes a two-hour challenge period after a proposal. Follow the live market instructions: procedures and deadlines can change.
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Polymarket states that an unsuccessful or premature proposal can forfeit the full $750 bond, while a validated proposal returns the bond plus a reward. That stated bond makes checking the rules and evidence before proposing especially important. The help page does not promise that every challenge succeeds or that a user can reopen a market after resolution. Polymarket resolution instructions
After resolution, Polymarket says winning shares receive $1 each, losing shares become worthless, and trading ends. Treat that as the platform’s published settlement mechanism, not an assurance of an appeal route.
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Why is a Kalshi market still pending?
Kalshi says settlement timing depends on the data source specified by the contract. Its support guidance gives a range of one hour to more than twelve hours after market closure, and notes that official data can be delayed or revised. The event ending therefore does not necessarily mean the market should settle immediately.
Check the contract’s determination date and source, then compare any update against those terms. If a standard market has no update after roughly twelve hours, Kalshi’s FAQ advises reviewing the rules and contacting in-app chat with the market title and relevant details. Kalshi also provides a separate “Request to Settle” feature for asking its markets team to review a market that a participant believes should be settled; the guidance does not describe this as an appeal of a final outcome.
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- Open the market and review its full rules, especially the settlement source and determination date.
- If the determination remains pending beyond roughly twelve hours, gather the market title and relevant source information.
- Contact Kalshi through in-app chat, or use “Request to Settle” if you are asking for review of a market that should settle.
Kalshi: When will my market settle? Kalshi: Why isn’t my market settled yet? Kalshi: Request to Settle
How to build a useful dispute record
Evidence is most useful when it addresses the criterion and source the contract actually names. A different outlet or later report may offer context but may not control settlement. Preserve the information needed to show what the rules required and what the platform did:
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- Save the market title and complete rules as they appeared when you entered the position, including linked contract terms.
- Record the stated source, time zone, cutoff, determination date, and any source hierarchy or correction provision.
- Save the outcome page, relevant source publication, timestamps, and all support or challenge correspondence.
- Use the venue’s documented challenge or support route promptly, and check the current instructions and deadlines before acting.
How to complain about a prediction market payout
For CFTC-regulated markets, the agency’s customer guidance identifies possible complaint channels: the broker, the designated contract market (DCM), the National Futures Association (NFA), and the CFTC. The CFTC Office of Proceedings also offers administrative complaint resolution for eligible matters. Which route applies depends on the entity and the complaint; eligibility is not automatic. CFTC customer advisory on prediction markets
The CFTC’s March 16, 2026 advance notice asks for input on factors the Commission should consider when setting expectations for DCM rules on event-contract resolution disputes. It is an information request, not a final rule establishing a universal appeal process. The sources cited here do not establish one general deadline or right to reverse every finalized outcome. CFTC advance notice on prediction markets
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