Further RAM price increases are expected before 2026 ends, but the clearest forecast is for conventional DRAM supplier contract prices—not the price of every kit on a retail shelf. TrendForce’s September 30 forecast projects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10–15% quarter over quarter in 4Q26. That is a forecast, not a confirmed result or a promise that consumer prices will rise by the same amount.
What the latest RAM price forecast says
TrendForce’s September 30, 2026 forecast calls for a 10–15% quarter-over-quarter increase in conventional DRAM contract prices in 4Q26. “Conventional DRAM” is the relevant measure here; the figure is not a forecast for NAND storage, nor a retail-price estimate for a specific DDR4 or DDR5 kit. TrendForce’s 4Q26 forecast describes supplier pricing, not what every retailer will charge consumers.
The forecast pace is lower than TrendForce’s earlier projection for the preceding quarter. These are forecasts issued at different dates, not measured changes in store prices.
| Forecast publication date | Quarter covered | Projected conventional DRAM contract-price change |
|---|---|---|
| January 5, 2026 | 1Q26 | 55–60% QoQ, according to TrendForce’s forecast at the time (source) |
| July 3, 2026 | 3Q26 | 13–18% QoQ, according to TrendForce’s forecast at the time (source) |
| September 30, 2026 | 4Q26 | 10–15% QoQ, according to TrendForce’s forecast at the time (source) |
Do not add these forecasts together to calculate an annual consumer price increase. They cover separate quarters, were published at different times, and measure supplier contract pricing rather than retail prices.
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Will RAM cost 10–15% more in stores?
Not necessarily. The 10–15% projection is not a US retail average, a global retail average, or a prediction for a particular seller, brand, capacity, or memory generation. The cited material does not establish how much of a contract-price change retailers will pass on, or when that might happen. It supports the conclusion that upstream cost pressure is expected—not that every consumer RAM product will rise by the forecast percentage.
Retail prices can also respond differently across product categories and buying conditions. A desktop DDR5 DIMM and a laptop SO-DIMM have different compatibility requirements, and the forecast does not give a price comparison between them. It also does not compare DDR4 with DDR5 or provide current store listings.
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Why DRAM prices are under pressure
Capacity is being directed toward high-performance products
TrendForce says memory suppliers continue prioritizing advanced-process capacity for high-performance server products, contributing to tight supply across the conventional DRAM market. Demand tied to AI infrastructure is supporting server procurement, while PC manufacturers continue buying DRAM because they expect supply to remain tight into 2027.
Higher component costs are affecting PC demand
TrendForce reports that notebook inventories are reflecting higher component costs, which weigh on end-market sales. Its July 2026 forecast also said consumer customers were nearing affordability limits amid record-high contract prices. Higher supplier prices therefore do not automatically mean consumers will accept any retail increase: affordability can constrain demand and the extent of pass-through.
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Server agreements and spot prices are not retail prices
A TrendForce listing dated October 7, 2026, says server DRAM supply is increasingly covered by multi-year agreements with price-band mechanisms, while spot trading was quiet and flat. Those details describe different market arrangements and a different DRAM category; they do not establish a retail price path for desktop or laptop memory. TrendForce’s October 7 listing does not provide a detailed consumer retail breakdown.
What the longer-term outlook adds
Tom’s Hardware reported on October 1, 2026, that Micron CEO and chairperson Sanjay Mehrotra expected demand to exceed supply in 2027 and 2028, with tighter conditions in those years than in 2026. Mehrotra was quoted as saying, “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.” This is a longer-term industry outlook, not a specific forecast for consumer RAM prices during the rest of 2026. Tom’s Hardware’s report on Micron’s outlook is the source for the remarks.
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What to do if you are planning a RAM upgrade
The forecast alone does not prove that buying now will save money. If you already need an upgrade, make the decision around your system’s requirements and the price you can actually find, rather than assuming the contract forecast will map directly to a retail increase.
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- Check your motherboard and CPU specifications for supported memory type, capacity, and speed.
- For a desktop, confirm whether the system uses DIMMs; for a laptop, check whether its memory is upgradeable and whether it uses SO-DIMMs. Some laptops have memory soldered to the board.
- Compare the price of compatible kits from retailers you can buy from; the TrendForce contract forecast is not a live retail comparison.
- If the upgrade is not urgent, weigh the possibility of higher upstream costs against your budget and the chance that consumer affordability limits how much suppliers’ increases reach retail prices.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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