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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteOffshore wind is already beginning to feed electricity into Poland’s grid, while the first unit of the planned nuclear plant is scheduled for commercial operation in 2036. But the published investment figures do not show which option is cheaper, and neither technology alone determines whether the power system is reliable.
Which can deliver electricity sooner?
Poland’s offshore wind programme forecast that the first Baltic farms would start producing in 2026. In July 2026, initial power from offshore farms reached the PSE Choczewo station, and Baltic Power became the first farm to feed into the national system, according to the Ministry of Energy’s 2026 year-in-review. That is a milestone in delivery, not evidence that the whole planned offshore fleet is operating.
The nuclear dates are later and remain targets. The Ministry of Energy’s 2026 update sets out the following milestones for the first plant at Lubiatowo-Kopalino:
| Option or milestone | Current status or target | What the date means |
|---|---|---|
| Offshore wind: first power | Initial power reached Choczewo in July 2026; Baltic Power was first to feed into the national system | A reported connection milestone, not full build-out |
| First nuclear unit | Commercial operation planned for 2036 | Government programme milestone for the first unit |
| First nuclear plant at full output | Planned by 2038 | Target for the three-unit plant to reach its full capacity |
The nuclear plant is planned as three Westinghouse AP1000 reactors with approximately 3.75 GWe of total capacity. The Ministry reports that the European Commission approved the public-support model in December 2025, PEJ filed a construction-permit application in March 2026, preparatory site and infrastructure works are underway, and contract preparation continues. These steps indicate progress, but do not guarantee the operating dates. The Ministry’s 2026 programme update is the source for the plant’s design and schedule.
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PEJ said in a 29 December 2025 update that design and fieldwork were continuing under an amended Engineering Development Agreement while negotiations on the main engineering, procurement and construction contract continued. The company’s planned 2026 survey campaign comprised 1,000 boreholes totalling 15 km and 7,000 laboratory tests. These are planned investigative works, not a construction-completion measure. PEJ’s update describes the project owner’s position.
How large is the offshore programme?
The Polish offshore programme includes multiple projects at different stages. The Ministry’s list of phase-one support decisions gives the following covered capacities; they should not be read as operating capacity:
| Project | Capacity covered by support decision |
|---|---|
| Baltica 3 | 1,045.5 MW |
| Baltica 2 | 1,498 MW |
| Baltic Power | 1,197 MW |
| BC-Wind | 369.5 MW |
| FEW Baltic II | 350 MW |
| MFW Bałtyk II | 720 MW |
| MFW Bałtyk III | 720 MW |
The programme’s second phase is auction-based and lists further projects, with capacities still undetermined for support on the Ministry page. The programme estimates offshore wind could supply 13% of Polish electricity generation in 2030 and 19% in 2040; those are forecasts, not measured generation shares. It also says projects are at least 22 km from shore. The Ministry’s offshore programme is the source for the project list and estimates.
Choczewo is intended ultimately to connect six offshore farms with combined capacity exceeding 6 GW. The station is part of the transmission link needed to bring offshore output into the wider electricity system; turbines alone do not deliver power to consumers.
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The figures published by the Polish government use different cost boundaries, so they cannot establish a cost winner:
| Published amount | What it covers | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| PLN 60.2 billion | Planned capitalization of the first nuclear project during 2025–2030, according to the Ministry of Energy’s 2026 update; the financing model also includes debt supported by domestic and international institutions | Not the project’s full construction cost, lifetime cost or cost per MWh |
| About PLN 130 billion | Estimated investment in offshore wind development in the Ministry programme, accessed in 2026 | The programme does not define a cost boundary comparable to the nuclear capitalization figure |
A fair comparison would need matching assumptions for price year, financing, construction and operating periods, capacity factor, fuel, decommissioning, grid connection, balancing and storage, as well as the treatment of public support. The cited Polish sources do not provide comparable lifetime costs, levelized electricity costs, financing costs, contract prices or system-integration costs for the two technologies. Neither amount should be presented as a direct price comparison.
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Which is more reliable?
Nuclear plants are controllable generators: operators can schedule their output, subject to operating constraints and outages. Offshore wind output varies with weather. That distinction describes the generators, not the reliability of Poland’s electricity supply as a whole.
System adequacy depends on the mix of generation, transmission capacity, reserves, storage, interconnection, planned and forced outages, demand patterns and balancing arrangements. The Ministry of Energy’s 2026 year-in-review makes the same system-level point: energy security depends on infrastructure that is connected, diversified and resilient to disruption, rather than on one plant or asset.
The cited Polish sources do not provide directly comparable figures for nuclear availability, offshore capacity factor, hourly output correlation, curtailment, reserve margin or loss-of-load risk. Nameplate capacity in GW is not the same as firm capacity, so these sources cannot support a numerical verdict that either option is more reliable for Poland.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could delay delivery?
Offshore wind: planning, permissions and transmission
Poland’s Supreme Audit Office reviewed wind-sector development during 2022–2024 and identified shortcomings including delayed planning, incomplete or late implementation of renewable-energy rules, and inadequate site designation. It reported offshore development potential of 28 GW by 2050; that is potential, not installed, contracted or guaranteed capacity. The audit is a reminder that project pipelines depend on administrative decisions as well as equipment and construction. The Supreme Audit Office’s 2025 account summarizes its findings.
Grid infrastructure is another delivery dependency. The Choczewo connection is being developed to serve multiple farms, and a delay in the relevant transmission works could affect when installed generation can be delivered to the system.
Nuclear: licensing, engineering and contracts
The first plant has active permitting, site preparation, engineering and survey work, but the main EPC contract was still under negotiation in PEJ’s December 2025 update. Construction schedule confidence therefore depends on the remaining approvals, contract completion and subsequent execution, not just on the reactor design or the target commercial-operation year.
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A second nuclear plant is a separate, less mature proposal
The Ministry says the strategic partner and technology for a second plant are planned to be selected in 2027, with construction planned around 2032 and its first unit around 2040. Bełchatów and Konin are preferred locations, but the investor is to select a site after analysis and surveys. These are preparatory milestones, not committed construction dates.
Quick Recap
How to read the comparison
- For earlier electricity: offshore wind has the nearer delivery horizon, with initial power reported in 2026; the first nuclear unit remains planned for 2036.
- For cost: the available headline investment figures are not comparable measures, so neither establishes which option is cheaper.
- For dependable supply: nuclear offers controllable generation and offshore wind varies with weather, but system reliability depends on the full Polish grid and generation portfolio.
- For execution risk: offshore scale-up depends on planning, permits and transmission readiness; nuclear delivery still requires licensing and contract progress alongside construction.
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