Evaluate quantum-computing companies by weighing demonstrated technical performance, paying customer demand, execution against dated milestones, and the cash and financing available to reach the next milestones. Qubit count, bookings, revenue growth, and market forecasts can each be useful, but none proves commercial viability on its own. This is a diligence framework—not a stock pick or a substitute for reviewing current filings and your own financial circumstances.
Start with what the company sells
Quantum-computing businesses may sell hardware, cloud access, software, services, or a combination. Identify the company’s computing approach, the problems it targets, the buyer, and how the product is delivered. A claimed addressable market is meaningful only to the extent that it matches a product the company can actually provide and a use case a customer will pay for.
Different approaches target different problem classes and have different strengths. Avoid ranking companies by a single hardware statistic; compare each company on the dimensions that matter to its product and intended workloads. Rigetti’s 2025 annual report lists performance, scale, speed, accessibility, software, workflow compatibility, price, finances, and talent among competitive factors (Rigetti 2025 annual report). D-Wave’s 2024 annual report describes an evaluation framework that also considers performance relative to classical computing, system reliability and availability, and commercial customer success (D-Wave 2024 annual report).
How do you judge whether the technology is credible?
For every major technical claim, record what was demonstrated, when, and how success was measured. Distinguish a completed demonstration from a forecast, and look for results on tasks relevant to the company’s intended customers.
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- Relevant performance: What task did the system perform, and does it address a real target workload?
- Classical comparison: Is there a credible comparison with classical computing on the same or a meaningfully comparable task?
- Reliability and availability: Can users access the system consistently, and is uptime or availability reported?
- Architecture-appropriate quality measures: Look for error or fidelity measures where relevant, rather than treating one metric as universal across different approaches.
- Usability: Check system access, software tools, and compatibility with customers’ existing workflows.
- Validation: Is the result independently reviewed, or is it a company-reported demonstration?
A qubit count by itself does not establish that a system solves a useful problem, performs better than a classical alternative, or is reliably accessible. Compare dated roadmap targets with delivered results and relevant performance evidence. A company roadmap is a forecast, not proof that a future milestone will be met.
How do you tell whether customers are adopting the product?
Trace commercial activity through stages: research engagement, pilot, paid proof of concept, production use, repeat business, and expansion. A named customer or announced collaboration is evidence of activity, but a company announcement alone does not establish durable demand or independent confirmation of results.
Rank #2
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- Look for named use cases and whether they moved beyond a pilot into production.
- Check for repeat customers, renewals, contract duration, and expansion of deployments.
- Review revenue by source and customer where disclosed, as well as customer concentration.
- Examine backlog or bookings definitions, cancellations, and the timing of large system sales.
Keep orders distinct from recognized revenue. D-Wave’s FY2025 results release defines bookings as customer orders received that are expected to generate net revenue in the future (D-Wave FY2025 results release). The company reported $24.6 million in FY2025 revenue and $18.7 million in FY2025 bookings; bookings fell 22% from FY2024, which included an eight-figure first system sale. These are company-reported figures for that fiscal year, and bookings are not recognized revenue.
Can the company fund execution?
Revenue growth does not by itself show that a company can finance development, manufacturing, and operations sustainably. Review audited financial statements and current regulatory filings, including risk factors. Evaluate cash and short-term investments alongside operating cash use, capital expenditures, debt, commitments, and likely financing needs.
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- Track gross margins and what drives them, operating expenses, and both GAAP and adjusted losses.
- Read reconciliations for non-GAAP measures rather than treating adjusted results as interchangeable with GAAP figures.
- Review stock-based compensation, warrants and other potential dilution, customer concentration, and obligations related to manufacturing or acquisitions.
- Do not infer runway from cash alone: it depends on cash burn, future spending, and financing assumptions.
D-Wave reported a FY2025 GAAP net loss of $355.1 million. Its FY2025 results release says $270.5 million in non-cash, non-operating warrant remeasurement charges, along with losses from warrant exercises, affected that result (D-Wave FY2025 results release). The accounting context matters, but it does not remove the need to assess operating cash use, dilution, and the company’s ability to fund its plans.
How should you assess roadmaps and market forecasts?
Write down each major roadmap target with its date, then compare subsequent company disclosures with what was actually achieved. Consider whether earlier milestones were met and whether the company has the people, capital, and operating capacity needed for the next steps.
Rank #4
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For example, D-Wave’s June 2026 update set a company target of a 100,000-qubit annealing system by 2031 and described gate-model milestones through 2032 (D-Wave Q2 2026 results release). These are company roadmap targets, not delivered capabilities or guarantees; check later disclosures before relying on them.
Market estimates describe a potential industry opportunity, not the revenue or investment return any one company will achieve. McKinsey & Company’s 2026 Quantum Technology Monitor estimated worldwide quantum-computing-company revenue at more than $1 billion in 2025 and as much as $4.4 billion by 2028, and potential economic value of up to $2.7 trillion by 2035 (McKinsey 2026 Quantum Technology Monitor). These are estimates, not audited industry totals, company forecasts, or investor-return projections.
Best Value
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Compare companies using the same scorecard
Use one framework for each company so that a striking metric or announcement does not dominate the comparison. Fill gaps with “not disclosed” rather than assumptions.
| Evaluation area | Questions to record |
|---|---|
| Approach and market | What does the company sell, which problem classes does its approach target, who is the buyer, and how is the product delivered? |
| Technical evidence | What performance has been demonstrated on relevant tasks, against what baseline, and with what validation? |
| Operations and access | What reliability, availability, access, software, and workflow-compatibility evidence is reported? |
| Commercial traction | Are there paid deployments, production use, repeat customers, renewals, and disclosed customer concentration? |
| Revenue quality | What is recognized revenue versus bookings or backlog, how are those measures defined, and do system-sale timings distort comparisons? |
| Financial capacity | What do cash, cash burn, margins, losses, debt, commitments, and potential dilution imply for funding execution? |
| Execution record | Which dated milestones were achieved, missed, or revised, and what evidence supports the next targets? |
Rigetti’s annual report characterizes the industry as early-stage, volatile, and globally competitive, reinforcing the importance of comparing execution and financial capacity alongside technical claims (Rigetti 2025 annual report). No single company-published framework is a universal investment standard; apply the same evidence-oriented questions across the companies you consider.
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