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Compare NHL goalies using the same provider’s goals saved above expected (GSAx), for the same season, competition, game-state scope, and workload range. In the common convention, GSAx is expected goals against minus goals allowed: a positive result means a goalie conceded fewer goals than expected; a negative result means more. It is a model-based measure of results in a defined sample—not a definitive ranking of goalie skill.
What GSAx measures
GSAx adjusts for the quality of the shots a goalie faced. Instead of treating every shot as equally difficult, it compares goals actually allowed with the expected goals assigned to those shots.
A useful conceptual formula is:
GSAx = expected goals against on shots faced − actual goals allowed
For example, Seattle Kraken’s 2022 explainer described Philipp Grubauer facing shots worth 5.2 expected goals and allowing two goals. Under that example’s calculation, he prevented more than three goals relative to expectation. It illustrates the arithmetic; it is not a current-season statistic or a league-wide finding. Seattle Kraken: Beyond the Box Score: Intro to Hockey Analytics
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Check the provider’s definition before interpreting its figures. Hockey Acumen explicitly defines GSAx as expected goals minus goals allowed, so positive is better than expectation and negative is worse. That sign convention is common, but labels and inputs can vary by provider. Hockey Acumen methodology
How to make a fair goalie comparison
- Choose one provider and model. Use the same source for every goalie, and note the provider and the date you retrieved the figures. Expected-goals models can use different data and features, so values from separate providers are not automatically comparable.
- Match the time frame and competition. Compare the same season and distinguish regular-season numbers from playoff numbers. A full-season total and a short playoff sample answer different questions.
- Match the game-state scope. Identify whether the figures cover all situations or a filter such as 5-on-5. Also check which event types are included; a shots-on-goal-only measure may not cover the same events as another dataset.
- Show workload and eligibility. Include starts, minutes, or another workload measure alongside cumulative GSAx. A total reflects both performance and the amount of work. If you use a provider’s minimum threshold, state it: PuckRank’s 2025-26 report, for instance, included goalies with at least 20 regular-season starts, positive time on ice and shot totals, and a non-null provider GSAx value. That is the report’s cohort rule, not an NHL-wide standard. PuckRank: 2025-26 NHL goalie burden and support index
- Use a rate carefully when workloads differ. A rate such as GSAx per 60 minutes can help compare unequal playing time. It does not erase differences in model, game-state scope, or sample size; a rate from a small sample can still be unstable.
- Pair GSAx with other context. Show save percentage, goals-against average, and workload. These figures answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable with GSAx.
Distinguish GSAx from related goalie statistics
Save percentage is the share of shots faced that a goalie stops. Goals-against average reports goals allowed relative to time played. Neither adjusts for shot quality in the same way as a shot-quality model’s GSAx.
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Goals saved above average (GSAA) is also not another name for GSAx. Seattle describes GSAA as a comparison with league-average save percentage on the shots faced, while GSAx compares actual goals allowed with a shot-quality expectation. Its explainer also discusses expected save percentage as a separate measure. Seattle Kraken: Analytics with Alison: Sizing up Goaltending
Why providers can report different GSAx values
Each GSAx figure depends on an expected-goals model: which shots or events are counted, how expected-goal probabilities are estimated, and the sample selected. One NHL.com segment explains expected goals in a goaltending context, but its public-facing description does not provide a full technical formula. It is an introduction, not a specification for every provider’s data. NHL.com: Analytics Special: Goaltending
Hockey Acumen says its model uses shot location, angle, shot type, and the play that created the attempt, and does not use goalie identity as a predictive feature. Its methodology page says its season coverage runs from 2009-10 through 2025-26 and notes a caveat for 2009-10. Those details describe that provider’s implementation; they are not universal properties of GSAx. Hockey Acumen methodology
What a GSAx comparison can—and cannot—tell you
A higher GSAx means a goalie’s results were better relative to the expected goals in the selected model and sample. It does not, by itself, establish which goalie is definitively better, predict future performance, or isolate the reason for the difference.
Recorded events and model features cannot capture every part of goaltending. Team context and factors such as positioning, sightlines, screens, rebounds, defensive pressure, and technique may be incompletely represented. Treat those as reasons to qualify the interpretation, not as proof that a particular model ignores each factor. Seattle’s explainers emphasize that public goalie statistics have limits and do not fully capture performance. Seattle Kraken: Beyond the Box Score: Intro to Hockey Analytics Seattle Kraken: Analytics with Alison: Sizing up Goaltending
Academic background on goalie metrics and expected-goals approaches is discussed in the 2019 Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application article “Goaltenders”. A specific performance-prediction claim should not be inferred from that general context alone.
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How to phrase the result
Report the provider, retrieval date, season and competition, situation filter, workload, metric form, and sign convention. For example: “In [provider]’s [season] regular-season all-situations data retrieved on [date], Goalie A had the higher cumulative GSAx, with [workload] compared with Goalie B’s [workload]. The figure uses [provider]’s expected-goals model.” Replace the bracketed fields with the actual table details; do not mix values from different providers to create a single ranking.
For a current leaderboard, use one provider’s live table and preserve its filters and eligibility rules. A provider-specific 2025-26 report is not an official NHL-wide GSAx ranking, and an NHL explainer video is not a statistical leaderboard.
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