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Build a simple spreadsheet forecast by period: start with cash on hand, estimate when money will actually arrive and leave, and carry each period’s closing cash into the next period. Keep supplier-cost and loan-payment assumptions visible, then compare a baseline with rate-change, input-cost, and combined scenarios. This shows not just whether a business is profitable on paper, but when cash could run short.
What a cash-flow forecast shows
A cash-flow forecast estimates the timing of cash receipts and payments. It is not the same as a profit-and-loss forecast: a sale may be recorded as revenue before the customer pays, and an expense may be recorded before its bill is due. For liquidity planning, enter the cash in the period it is expected to reach or leave the business.
Timing can change the result even when sales and costs look steady. Customer collection habits, supplier terms, payroll dates, seasonal trading, annual bills, tax remittances, and loan-payment dates can all shift the cash balance.
Set up the spreadsheet
Choose periods that reveal the decision
Monthly columns or rows are a practical starting point for an operating forecast; Business Victoria notes that many businesses use monthly periods and emphasizes accurate timing. Use weekly periods, or another shorter interval, when monthly totals could conceal a near-term shortfall—for example, when payroll falls before customer receipts arrive. Forecast far enough ahead to include the relevant rate reset, supplier-price change, seasonal low point, or funding decision. There is no single horizon that suits every business.
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Use one row per cash category
Set up a column for each period and rows for opening cash, receipts, payments, net cash movement, and closing cash. Separate meaningful categories so a change in one assumption is easy to trace. A simple layout might look like this:
| Row | What to enter |
|---|---|
| Opening cash | Cash available at the start of the period; for the first period, use the current bank cash balance. |
| Customer receipts | Cash expected from customers in the period received, not simply sales booked. |
| Other receipts | Only expected cash inflows, such as a confirmed grant, tax refund, loan proceeds, or owner contribution. |
| Payments | Separate lines for suppliers, payroll, operating costs, tax, asset purchases, relevant owner payments, and debt service. |
| Net cash movement | Cash receipts minus cash payments. |
| Closing cash | Opening cash plus receipts minus payments. |
The roll-forward is:
- Net cash movement = cash receipts − cash payments.
- Closing cash = opening cash + cash receipts − cash payments.
- Next period’s opening cash = prior period’s closing cash.
In a spreadsheet, the closing-cash formula for a period should reference that period’s opening cash, receipts, and payments; the next period’s opening-cash cell should reference the previous closing-cash cell. Label estimated figures and state consistently whether amounts include or exclude GST or another applicable sales tax. The Australian Government’s cash-flow statement guidance and template covers opening balances, inflows, outflows, closing cash, estimate labels, and GST treatment.
Gather the records that drive the timing
Start with the current bank balance and records that show when money actually moves. Use historical patterns where available, then adjust for known changes rather than assuming every month repeats.
- Bank statements and bookkeeping records for actual receipts and payments.
- Sales history, customer invoices, collection patterns, and any seasonal variation.
- Supplier invoices, purchase orders, quotes, contracts, payment terms, and expected delivery or payment dates.
- Payroll calendar, rent schedule, recurring subscriptions, tax or GST remittances, and annual bills.
- Planned asset purchases, owner payments where relevant, and other non-routine cash flows.
- Loan agreement and lender notices, including the rate and payment information described below.
Ask the practical questions that the Australian small-business resource recommends using when gathering cash-flow data: “What is my cash position?”, “How much do I need to pay in tax and super commitments?”, “How much does my business have available to spend?”, and “Has my business improved?” The answers depend on dated cash movements, not sales totals alone.
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Separate fixed costs—those that do not normally move directly with sales volume—from variable costs that change with output or activity. For every material input that may change, keep the assumption explicit instead of hiding it in a general expenses line.
- Record the current cost assumption and the source, such as a supplier quote, contract clause, or purchase order.
- Enter the expected effective date and the period when the resulting bill is expected to be paid. The purchase date and cash-payment date may differ.
- Show the alternative cost assumption in its own scenario or assumption cell.
- If the purchase amount depends on production or sales volume, link it to the relevant units or volume assumption so a cost change does not silently imply a different activity level.
Do not apply an unexplained across-the-board increase. If a future price is uncertain, label it as a planning estimate and replace it when better information arrives. SBA New Zealand’s cash-flow forecast guidance recommends distinguishing fixed and variable expenses and allowing for payment terms and seasonal variation.
Model the loan from its actual terms
For variable-rate borrowing, collect the outstanding balance, the index or base rate, contractual spread, any caps or floors, reset dates and frequency, payment due dates, and the lender’s revised payment schedule or notice. Enter the cash payment in the period it is due. Do not assume that every variable-rate loan resets on the same schedule or recalculates its payment by the same formula.
The U.S. Small Business Administration says payments on a variable-rate 7(a) loan may change when the rate changes; that program-specific guidance is not a universal payment rule for other loans. Confirm the applicable amount and timing using the borrower’s agreement and lender information. For a fixed-rate loan, keep the scheduled payment unchanged unless the contract or lender provides a reason to alter it.
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For a simple cash forecast, record the full scheduled loan payment as cash outflow. An interest-expense estimate alone is not enough if principal is also due. Business Victoria includes loan repayments among cash outflows in its cash-flow forecasting guidance.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Compare a baseline with downside scenarios
Keep one baseline and create alternatives that change only the assumptions relevant to each case. That makes it clear what is driving a potential cash pinch and avoids treating a planning scenario as a prediction.
| Scenario | Assumptions to change |
|---|---|
| Base | Current known loan payment and supplier-cost assumptions, along with the best-supported receipt and payment timing. |
| Rate case | Use the lender’s revised payment schedule in the periods affected by the rate reset; leave unrelated assumptions unchanged. |
| Input-cost case | Change only the material supplier costs expected to rise, starting on the expected effective date and reflecting when those bills are paid. |
| Combined downside | Apply the rate and input-cost changes together. If a sales or collection change is also plausible, show it as a separate, clearly explained assumption. |
A spreadsheet lets you test changes against the cash balance; the Australian Government small-business resource discusses using gathered cash-flow data to test whether proposed changes improve cash flow. SBA guidance also recommends allowing for unforeseen costs. These scenario labels are a practical way to organize that work, not an official or mandatory framework.
For each case, compare the lowest closing-cash balance, the first period it falls below zero or your chosen operating buffer, and the size and duration of any gap. A buffer is a business planning choice, not a legal or universal reserve requirement. A useful comparison table can show each scenario’s minimum closing cash, first shortfall period, and gap amount without obscuring the underlying forecast.
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Update the forecast against actual cash
At the end of each period, enter actual receipts and payments, compare them with the forecast, and explain material differences. Then revise future assumptions: a late customer payment may change the collection pattern, a supplier invoice may replace a quote, and a lender notice may supersede an estimated loan payment.
Choose a review cadence that matches how quickly cash moves in the business. Some retailers or contractors may need to review records daily or weekly; another business may be able to use a different rhythm. The key is to refresh the forecast regularly enough for it to inform decisions. Business Victoria advises comparing estimates with actual results and updating the forecast, while the Australian guidance discusses regular recordkeeping and applying collected data to a spreadsheet or digital tool.
A forecast is a planning aid, not a guarantee. Its usefulness depends on realistic assumptions, dated transactions, and the discipline to replace estimates with actual information.
Choose a spreadsheet or template that fits
A basic spreadsheet is sufficient if it supports the mechanics of the forecast. The Australian Government provides a cash-flow statement template, and Business Victoria describes an Excel template with a cash-flow statement tab. When choosing a template or digital tool, check whether it can handle:
- Your needed period length, such as monthly or weekly.
- Visible, editable assumptions for costs, receipts, and loan payments.
- Separate receipt and payment categories, with a rolling closing-cash balance.
- Scenario changes and an actual-versus-forecast review.
- The tax-reporting labels and treatment relevant to your jurisdiction.
Tax treatment, including GST labels, government loan programs, and contractual rate terms vary by location and borrower. Use the relevant local tax guidance and the specific loan documents rather than copying another business’s labels or assumptions.
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