A prediction market settles according to the specific contract’s rules—not simply what its title seems to promise or when an event appears to end. Check the payout criterion, designated source, timing and dispute route for that market; then act before any applicable challenge deadline.
What determines a contract’s outcome?
The market title is a label, not the full settlement test. The market-specific rules define what must happen for each outcome, which information source controls, and sometimes when the determination will be made or how edge cases are handled. Polymarket’s Help Center puts it plainly: “The market title describes the market, but the rules define how it should be resolved.” Kalshi likewise directs traders to the contract terms for the outcome rules and verification source.
Read the complete rules for the exact contract you hold. Identify the criterion that triggers a payout, the named resolution or verification source, any determination date or window, and special cases such as a correction, cancellation or inconclusive result. A different news report, app or data feed may not control if the contract designates another source.
How to check a result and choose the right next step
- Save the contract details. Keep the market URL and title, full rules, and any version or date information shown on the page.
- Write down the settlement test. Note the exact payout criterion, controlling source, determination timing and relevant edge cases.
- Check the controlling source. Record the publication time and the specific statement or data field that bears on the criterion. Check for later corrections. Compare what the source says with the contract wording, rather than relying only on the event’s apparent outcome.
- Check the market’s state. Determine whether it is still open or pending, whether a result has been proposed and can be challenged, or whether the venue has finalized it. Look for a deadline before submitting anything.
- Use the route that fits that state. A pending market, a proposed resolution and a finalized result are different situations. The procedures below are not interchangeable.
- Make an evidence-led submission. Quote the relevant rule, identify the controlling source record, explain the specific mismatch and request the review available under the venue’s current rules.
Polymarket International: challenging a proposed resolution
Polymarket’s Help Center describes its International markets as being resolved through the UMA Optimistic Oracle according to each market’s pre-defined rules. A proposer posts a bond. If the proposal is accepted as accurate, the proposer receives the bond back and a reward; the Help Center warns that an unsuccessful or premature proposal can lose its bond.
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After a resolution is proposed, the Help Center describes a two-hour challenge period. Anyone may challenge through the UMA dapp by posting a bond equal to the proposer’s bond, which the Help Center says is “usually $750.” The market’s Rules section provides the dispute link. These are the Help Center’s 2026 descriptions, not guarantees that every market or future process will use the same timing or amount.
A challenge starts a 24–48-hour debate period, after which UMA token holders vote; the Help Center says the vote takes approximately 48 hours. It describes four possible outcomes:
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- Proposer wins: The challenger loses their bond.
- Disputer wins: The challenger receives their bond back plus half the proposer’s bond as a bounty, and the proposer loses their bond.
- Too Early: The proposed resolution is premature.
- Unknown/50-50: An outcome the Help Center says is rarely used.
To support a challenge, preserve the contract text, the designated source and the relevant source passage or record, then explain why the proposed outcome does not follow from the rules. Contributors may add evidence in the debate channels identified by the Help Center. Polymarket says it is non-custodial and cannot change or reverse an outcome after UMA finalizes it; it describes the finalized UMA outcome as immutable.
Once a market resolves, Polymarket says winning shares pay $1 per share, losing shares become worthless, and trading stops.
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Kalshi: pending markets, settlement requests and market defects
Kalshi’s timing guidance is not a promise of a fixed settlement deadline. Its Help Center says a determination can take from one hour to more than twelve hours after market closure, often depending on when the source agency’s data arrives. A separate FAQ says most markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known—often about three hours—but source delays and market-specific determination windows can extend that time. Trading close and determination are not necessarily simultaneous.
Kalshi says an open or undetermined market does not indicate whether its resolution criteria have or have not been met. It also says markets are not re-settled merely because an event appears to have concluded while trading was still available.
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If the market appears to be pending
For a standard single-outcome market that remains without an update more than about 12 hours after the event, Kalshi’s FAQ says to check the rules first. If the rules do not specify a later determination time and the criteria appear to be met, the FAQ directs users to in-app chat with the market title and source details so support can escalate the issue to the markets team. The roughly 12-hour mark is published guidance for contacting support about a pending market, not a service-level guarantee or a promise of reversal.
If you think an unsettled market should already be determined, Kalshi also documents a Request to Settle feature: use the market page’s options menu, select the relevant strike or strikes, and submit the request for market-team review.
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If the rules or market display appear defective
For issues such as contradictory rules, broken variables or internal contract contradictions, Kalshi documents a private market bug reporting route. That is a way to report a defect or ambiguity; it is not described as a general appeal process for an outcome that has already been finalized.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Pending, challenged and finalized are not the same
| Market state | What it means | What to check or do |
|---|---|---|
| Pending or delayed | The venue may still be waiting for the named source, an official release or a contract-specified determination time. The status alone does not establish whether the criterion is met. | Read the specific rules and timing. Use the venue’s documented pending-market route where applicable. |
| Proposed or under challenge | A proposed outcome may still be contested under the venue’s stated process. On Polymarket International, the proposal has a specified challenge period. | Check the deadline and submit evidence through the route named for that market. |
| Finalized | The venue’s stated resolution process has concluded. Whether further recourse exists depends on the venue and applicable contract terms. | Do not assume a pending-market support procedure reopens or reverses a final decision. Consult the applicable current contract and rules. |
What is—and is not—established about a final dispute
Polymarket says a finalized UMA outcome is immutable. The Kalshi Help Center pages described here do not establish a general appeal right for a finalized result. Kalshi’s regulatory document index listed Exchange Rulebook version 1.29, dated August 17, 2026, when checked; a reader disputing a finalized Kalshi determination should consult the applicable current rulebook and contract rather than infer an appeal right from the support steps for pending markets. These help pages do not establish a legal conclusion about any individual’s rights.
The documented procedures also do not establish a settlement-accuracy rate, how often determinations are incorrect, or how often disputes succeed. The timing and bond figures above describe process guidance, not accuracy or success statistics.
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