A 2026 study reports that human-caused warming changes the shape and structure of wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic, without changing the number of regime states in its model analysis. It also finds different future mid-tropospheric westerly responses in regimes dominated by positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The result is a model-based projection, not evidence that every North Atlantic weather pattern shifts in the same direction.
What the study says about North Atlantic circulation
The 2026 study in Communications Earth & Environment examines recurring winter circulation regimes over the North Atlantic. Its publisher-indexed summary says anthropogenic climate change does not alter the number of regime states, but reorganizes their spatial characteristics under external forcing. In other words, the modeled patterns change in their geographic structure; the finding is not that the atmosphere gains or loses a regime.
The study also reports contrasting future changes in mid-tropospheric westerly winds for regimes dominated by positive versus negative NAO phases. The available summary does not give the direction or magnitude of each regime’s wind change, so it does not support a more specific claim about which regime strengthens or weakens. The analysis uses one climate model and a high-emissions scenario, and the authors note that responses may differ with the magnitude of forcing.
What the North Atlantic Oscillation does
The NAO is a recurring pattern of pressure and height differences between centers near Greenland and the central North Atlantic. Its positive and negative phases are associated with shifts in the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track, and with changes in the transport of heat and moisture. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center describes basin-wide changes in the intensity and location of the jet and storm track in both phases.
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These circulation shifts influence broad temperature and precipitation tendencies from eastern North America to western and central Europe. Strong positive winter NAO phases tend to be associated with milder conditions and above-average precipitation in northern Europe and Scandinavia, and below-average precipitation in southern and central Europe. The pattern is typically reversed in strong negative phases. These are tendencies across large regions, not reliable forecasts for a particular town or a particular winter.
Why “jet stream change” can mean different things
Claims about the North Atlantic jet stream under climate change are not directly comparable unless they specify the quantity being measured. A jet can be described by its latitude, wind speed, vertical shear, or relationship to a storm track; evidence about one of these does not establish a change in the others.
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- Latitude: A 2012 Journal of Climate analysis found some model agreement on a poleward shift, but considerable spread among projections, especially for winter. Its conclusions were also sensitive to diagnostic methods and to how projected responses compare with model biases against reanalysis.
- Wind speed and vertical shear: A 2019 Nature study found no change in North Atlantic polar-jet zonal wind speed at 250 hPa since the satellite era began in 1979, while finding a 15% increase in vertical shear across three reanalysis datasets (range 11–17%). The shear trend is not a 15% increase in jet speed; the study attributed it to the thermal-wind response to an enhanced upper-level meridional temperature gradient.
- Storm-track position and intensity: These describe the storm systems associated with the jet, not the jet’s latitude or wind speed alone. Regional changes can therefore differ from a simple picture of the entire jet moving poleward.
For broader context, a 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program assessment reported that the tropics expanded poleward by about 70 to 200 miles in each hemisphere from 1979 to 2009, alongside shifts in subtropical dry zones, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks. It assessed a human contribution with medium confidence, but had low confidence in the magnitude of that contribution relative to natural variability. This is broad circulation context, not a North Atlantic-specific attribution estimate.
Why the North Atlantic storm-track response is uncertain
Greenhouse-gas forcing does not produce one uniform storm-track response across models. A 2012 Nature Geoscience study found that the North Atlantic storm track could strengthen and extend eastward, particularly along its southern flank, with an eddy-driven jet extending toward western Europe. Its coupled-model experiments indicate that ocean–atmosphere interaction shapes this regional response.
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In that study’s ensemble, uncertainty in ocean-circulation changes was associated with at least half of the differences among modeled storm-track responses. The result helps explain why projections can diverge even when they examine greenhouse-gas forcing: the ocean’s circulation and its interaction with the atmosphere matter alongside the forcing itself. It does not provide a precise forecast of future European storm damage.
A far-future projection is not a near-term forecast
A separate 2026 issue study in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science examined the CMIP6 long-term extension of the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario, with greenhouse gases continuing to increase beyond 2100. In that experiment, the North Atlantic winter storm track and jet intensify through the middle of the 22nd century, then weaken despite continued CO₂ increases. The authors link the reversal at very high CO₂ to the logarithmic relationship between CO₂ and temperature and the resulting reduction in the meridional temperature gradient.
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| Period and comparison | Storm-track change | Jet change |
|---|---|---|
| 2140–2160 versus 1990–2010, in the study’s SSP5-8.5 long-term extension | About 14% intensification | About 7% intensification |
| 2280–2299 versus 1990–2010, in the same experiment | About 3% increase | About 0.2% increase |
These figures belong to that study’s scenario and model experiments. They are neither projections for the next few decades nor a consensus range across climate models, and they should not be merged with the 2026 regime study’s results: the studies examine different quantities and time horizons.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this means for regional weather and individual storms
North Atlantic circulation patterns help shape the odds of particular kinds of weather across regions by influencing the jet, storm track, and heat and moisture transport. A change in the modeled structure of circulation regimes may therefore matter for regional climate, but it does not by itself establish that human-caused warming produced a specific storm, flood, cold spell, or local precipitation total. That requires event-specific evidence beyond a finding about circulation regimes across a model ensemble.
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When comparing claims about the North Atlantic jet stream or storm track, check the season, the metric, the model and ocean-coupling setup, the emissions pathway, and the projection period. A result about winter jet shear in reanalysis is not interchangeable with a future projection of storm-track intensity or a modeled change in NAO-dominated regime structure.
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