Drought and wildfire can kill pinyon and juniper trees, but their effects differ by species, site and fire severity. Drought may kill trees directly or leave pinyons vulnerable to insect outbreaks; severe fires can kill most or all trees in a stand. Across the western United States, some woodlands are expanding while others are contracting, so local losses do not by themselves show that the whole ecosystem is disappearing.
How does drought affect pinyon-juniper woodlands?
Drought stresses trees by limiting the water they can access. In pinyon-juniper woodlands, the pathway to death can differ between the two groups: drought may directly stress a tree, or it may make pinyon pines more susceptible to insects.
Pinyon pines can die after drought-associated insect outbreaks
A study of three sites in southwest Colorado, northern New Mexico and northern Arizona linked pinyon mortality primarily to outbreaks of pinyon ips, an insect outbreak precipitated by drought. In that 2009 study, pinyon mortality ranged from 32% to 65% across the sites. The researchers found the greatest pinyon mortality among larger, presumably older trees at all three sites. These are findings from those locations and that drought, not current or range-wide mortality rates. Floyd and colleagues, 2009.
Junipers may be affected by direct drought stress
At the same three sites, juniper mortality ranged from 3% to 10%. The researchers attributed those deaths to direct drought stress and did not identify a biotic agent responsible for juniper mortality. They also found no greater mortality in stands with higher density or basal area during the severe regional drought they studied; that result should not be treated as a rule for other droughts or woodlands. Floyd and colleagues, 2009.
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A separate Forest Service inventory analysis used 14,929 plots spanning 25 years and representing more than 25 million hectares. It found that Pinus edulis mortality after 2003 was higher than in 1981–2002; most Juniperus species had very low mortality under normal conditions and a small increase during that drought. The analysis found no evidence of elevational or geographic range contraction in the period it examined. It is a historical result, not a current monitoring estimate. Shaw, USDA Forest Service, 2006.
Does wildfire kill pinyon and juniper trees?
Yes. Fire effects range from tree damage and survival to the loss of most or all trees in a stand. The U.S. Geological Survey defines a stand-replacing fire as one “where most or all of the trees are killed.” Whether a fire replaces a stand matters because a woodland with few surviving trees faces different recovery prospects from one where many trees remain. U.S. Geological Survey, December 31, 2019.
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Fuel conditions and woodland change can also influence fire risk. Expansion in some places can increase fuel loads and the risk of more severe fires; elsewhere, severe drought and larger wildfires contribute to contraction. This is a context-dependent relationship, not evidence that every denser stand will burn more severely. A Forest Service synthesis published in 2021 reviewed more than 1,000 research and management papers on the Great Basin and northern Colorado Plateau, reflecting the regional complexity of woodland change. USDA Forest Service, 2021.
Will pinyon-juniper woodlands recover after a fire?
Recovery is not assured, especially when a stand-replacing fire leaves few or no trees and natural regrowth does not occur. The USGS describes uncertainty about both protecting woodlands from stand-replacing fire and restoring communities afterward. Its project page reports that researchers were studying regeneration at sites with thinning or fire and testing restoration options where natural post-fire regrowth was not occurring. Those are research aims, not proof that a particular treatment reliably restores woodlands. U.S. Geological Survey, December 31, 2019.
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Are pinyon-juniper woodlands disappearing across the West?
No single direction describes the whole region: woodlands expand in some places and contract in others. The 2006 inventory analysis found no range contraction in its study period, but it cannot settle what is happening now or at every location. The Forest Service’s 2021 synthesis describes expansion and contraction in different areas. The federal sources cited here do not provide a single current range-wide estimate of drought mortality, burned area or post-fire recovery, so local findings should not be presented as a regional total. Shaw, USDA Forest Service, 2006; USDA Forest Service, 2021.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What should guide woodland resilience and management?
Management choices depend on the specific landscape, what values it supports and how conditions are expected to change. A 2023 resilience framework recommends assessing four factors together:
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- Historical structure and landscape change: how the woodland’s extent and structure have changed over time, including the influence of land use.
- Current vegetation: the stand’s structure and species composition, rather than assuming all pinyon-juniper sites are alike.
- Future climate suitability: whether conditions are likely to remain suitable for the woodland.
- Habitat and resource value: the wildlife, plants and other resources a particular place supports.
The framework’s authors emphasize adaptive management because evidence and outcomes remain uncertain. Redmond, Urza and Weisberg, 2023.
These woodlands can also have cultural significance. The USGS identifies pinyon pines as a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and notes habitat value for plants and wildlife, including the pinyon-jay. These agency-level observations do not imply that individual Tribal Nations share the same priorities. U.S. Geological Survey, December 31, 2019.
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