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Data centers can add large amounts of electricity demand in a short time, but the effect on a particular community depends on where facilities connect, how much power they draw at peak, and whether grid upgrades and new supply are ready when they need them. National forecasts show the scale of growth; utility and regional planning determine where local constraints and costs may arise.

How much electricity will data centers use?

Forecasts point to substantial growth, but they are scenarios rather than a single settled prediction. They also measure different things: terawatt-hours (TWh) describe energy used over time, while gigawatts (GW) describe power capacity. Those figures are not interchangeable without assumptions about when and how steadily facilities operate.

Source and geography Forecast What it measures
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), United States, 2025 update Data centers could account for 11.8% of U.S. electricity consumption in 2030; scenarios range from 9.5% to 15.3%. Share of total U.S. electricity consumption under the update’s scenarios.
LBNL, United States, 2024 report Its scenarios put data centers at 6.7% to 12.0% of U.S. electricity use by 2028. An earlier forecast with a different horizon and scenario set; it should not be treated as a direct update to the 2030 range.
International Energy Agency (IEA), global, 2026 outlook 485 TWh in 2025, rising to 950 TWh in 2030, or around 3% of global electricity demand in 2030. Annual data center electricity consumption in the IEA’s central outlook.
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), July 2026 draft Several U.S. projections summarized in the draft imply as much as over 400 TWh of additional load by 2030; the draft also cites a 13–55 GW range for data-center capacity growth by 2030. The TWh and GW figures are different measures drawn from projections the draft compiles, not one forecast to combine. The document is a draft for consultation and public comment.

LBNL’s 2024 estimate uses a bottom-up approach based on computing-equipment shipments and infrastructure such as cooling systems, with scenarios that vary equipment shipments, operating practices, and cooling energy. The IEA’s 2026 outlook describes near-term bottlenecks that make more aggressive growth less likely, while noting possible longer-term upside. Forecasts therefore depend on which projects proceed, when they enter service, how efficiently they operate, and how much cooling they require.

How do data centers affect the local power grid?

The national share of electricity use does not tell you whether a particular utility or community has enough capacity. Large facilities concentrate demand in a specific place. Serving one may require work on local substations or distribution equipment as well as generation and transmission capacity. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) staff note that facilities of this scale “might need new generation or transmission infrastructure to reliably interconnect.”

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Project timing complicates planning. An announced project or connection request is not the same as a facility that is operating at full demand. FERC says planners need accurate forecasts of “when, and if, a facility will enter service.” In its analysis of Yes Energy data, FERC staff found that the average size of data centers entering service rose from 25 MW in 2020 to almost 80 MW in 2025; those figures describe that dataset, not a universal facility size.

That uncertainty is why planners use scenarios rather than simply adding every proposed project to a firm forecast. LBNL varies equipment and operating assumptions; the IEA considers equipment and chip bottlenecks and project pipelines; and the DOE draft compiles projections using different measures. The FERC 2025 State of the Markets report, published in March 2026, and these other sources underscore the need to assess project maturity and service dates alongside expected demand.

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Where are grid impacts most concentrated?

The DOE’s July 2026 draft identifies Virginia and Texas as states with among the greatest estimated current data center electricity demand and some of the largest projected increases through 2030. It also identifies Arizona and Oregon among states with significant expected growth. These are comparative projections summarized in a draft study, not a definitive current ranking of measured state demand.

Even within a state, impacts depend on the utility territory and the specific network serving a proposed site. Two projects with similar annual energy use can pose different challenges if one needs a new transmission path or substation work, or if its peak demand coincides with a constrained period. For a local assessment, look for the relevant utility or regional planning documents, including interconnection analysis and proposed network upgrades.

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Can the grid handle new data centers?

There is no one answer for the entire grid. A system may have enough annual energy in aggregate but still lack capacity in a particular location or at a particular hour. Planning has to account for both reliable supply and the network that delivers it, along with the possibility that proposed loads change schedule or never materialize.

The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners’ July 2025 literature review identifies the main areas planners and regulators consider:

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  • Load forecasting and the maturity and timing of proposed projects.
  • Resource adequacy and large-load interconnection.
  • Transmission, local infrastructure, and site location.
  • Demand flexibility, co-location, and grid operations.
  • Tariffs, policy, and allocation of infrastructure costs.

Flexible operations can potentially shift some electricity use away from constrained or peak hours, but the amount and value of flexibility depend on the facility, system conditions, and operating arrangements. It should not be assumed that every data center can shift a particular share of its demand.

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What supplies the additional electricity?

There is no single generation source assigned to data center growth. In the IEA’s 2025 global outlook, renewables meet nearly half of the increase in data center electricity demand through 2030, while natural gas and coal together supply more than 40%. The IEA notes that outcomes vary by region; this global scenario does not establish which resources will serve a particular local facility.

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The IEA’s 2026 update says slow grid connections have led some U.S. developers to pursue onsite natural-gas generation. Onsite generation can change how a project is supplied, but it does not by itself resolve grid bottlenecks: the IEA notes that most data centers still prefer grid connections. Storage and flexible operations may also support the system when incentives and operating arrangements make them available.

Will data centers increase my electricity bill?

They can create costs for new generation or network upgrades, but the effect on household bills depends on the applicable utility tariff, regulatory decisions, and how costs are allocated. Dedicated facilities, shared network improvements, and assets built for a project that is delayed or canceled may be treated differently under local rules. The sources cited here do not establish a single household-bill effect or a universal rule for who pays.

To understand a specific proposal, check the utility’s current large-load tariff and filings, relevant commission orders, and the project’s interconnection or planning documents. Those materials can show what costs a customer must fund, what costs may be shared, and how the utility addresses the risk of infrastructure becoming underused.

What should a local grid plan compare?

A useful assessment distinguishes a project’s likely electricity use from its peak power needs and tests more than one schedule or operating scenario. It should examine:

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  • Timing and certainty: project maturity, expected service date, and probability that the load will enter service.
  • Location and network: utility territory, transmission constraints, substations, and local distribution requirements.
  • Demand profile: annual energy, peak demand, load factor, ramp behavior, and operational flexibility.
  • Supply strategy: grid purchases, new generation, renewable procurement, co-location, storage, or onsite generation—and the distinction between contracted energy and deliverable power.
  • Cost allocation: responsibility for dedicated facilities, shared upgrades, and assets that could be stranded under the rules that apply.
  • Reliability and local effects: resource adequacy, resilience, emissions, water and land considerations, and community impacts.

For residents, the most decision-useful local evidence is not a national forecast alone: it is the utility’s analysis of the project’s expected connection, the upgrades required, the schedule for those upgrades, and the tariff or regulatory order governing their costs.

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