Not reliably. A death cross—the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day—shows that recent prices have weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Because both averages are calculated from past prices, the signal can appear after a decline is already well underway. Historical results vary by market, sample, measurement and time horizon; the cross is not a dependable standalone forecast.
What a death cross tells you
In its conventional form, a death cross occurs when a security’s 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day moving average. It is a backward-looking relationship between two averages, not a direct measure of future returns. The cross can confirm that recent price action has deteriorated, but it cannot establish that prices will continue falling.
Timing is one reason the signal can disappoint. In Reuters’ 2025 analysis of LSEG data, a death cross occurred after the S&P 500’s maximum intraday decline in 54% of the roughly 50-year sample. Nasdaq Dorsey Wright also notes that averages can continue falling after a rebound begins as older, higher prices roll out of the calculation. Reuters’ report and Nasdaq Dorsey Wright’s historical analysis describe different aspects of this lag.
What historical S&P 500 evidence shows
There is no single, timeless probability of a decline after a death cross. Different analyses define the event and outcome differently, so their figures answer different questions.
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Declines after the signal
Reuters’ analysis of LSEG data reported that the S&P 500 selloff worsened after the death cross in 46% of cases. In those cases, the average further decline from the cross was 19%. Some episodes associated with signals in 1981, 2000 and 2007 ultimately saw much larger declines—21%, 45% and 55%, respectively. These are event-history results, not odds that a future signal will produce a comparable loss.
Drawdown while the signal persisted
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright measured each episode from the death-cross close to the lowest closing level before the 50-day average crossed back above the 200-day. For the S&P 500 from 1929 through 2019, it reported an average drawdown of 12.57%, a median of 7.75% and a maximum of 78.84%. Restricting the sample to 1950 onward, the average was 10.37%, the median 5.38% and the maximum 53.44%, in 2008. This episode drawdown measure is not the same as the index’s return over a fixed number of days after the cross.
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Shorter forward horizons
Reuters reported Bank of America technical strategist Paul Ciana’s analysis of nearly 100 years of data: the S&P 500 was down 52% of the time 20 trading days after a death cross, with an average return of −0.5%; at 30 trading days, it was higher 60% of the time, with an average gain of 0.8%. These figures are attributed to Ciana through Reuters; the underlying note is not independently assessed here. The results illustrate how the answer changes with the chosen horizon.
What a recent individual-stock study found
An individual stock can behave differently from a broad index, and “decline” can mean either falling in price or underperforming other stocks. Opulence Alpha Research’s September 2026 US-stock study used a relative-performance comparison: it asked whether a death-cross stock beat the same-date median stock. It reports that death-cross stocks did so 49 times in 100 over the next month and 51 times in 100 over the next three months. Those rates are close to an even split; they do not mean that the stocks rose or fell in absolute terms.
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The study says it covered 1,763 of 1,767 US common stocks in its fixed universe over 1,634 Wednesdays from January 4, 1995, through August 19, 2026. It used adjusted closes for splits and dividends, counted the cross on the event Wednesday, and did not add delisting returns. The author discloses survivorship bias in the outside-index stratum. None of the eight tested horizons for golden and death crosses met the study’s stated threshold for a proven relationship. These findings are from a recent publisher study, not a regulator or standards-body determination. Read the study’s methods and results.
Why studies can seem to disagree
A study may find meaningful drawdowns during some death-cross episodes while another finds little short-term predictive value. That is not necessarily a contradiction: the studies may be measuring different markets, periods and outcomes.
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| What to compare | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Market universe | An index such as the S&P 500 is not the same as individual stocks. A sample of surviving stocks can also omit companies that were delisted. |
| Signal definition | A daily closing cross may differ from an intraday cross; a simple moving average may differ from an exponential one. Some tests count only the first crossing, while others count days the condition remains in place. |
| Outcome | Drawdown until a reverse cross, absolute forward return, the chance of being down, and performance versus a same-date median answer distinct questions. |
| Time horizon | Next-session, 20-day, 30-day, one-month, three-month and full-episode results are not interchangeable. |
| Period and market regime | Results depend on which bear markets, sideways periods and rapid recoveries are included. |
| Trading assumptions | A theoretical signal return may not account for dividends, transaction costs, slippage or whether a trade could be executed at the signal close. |
| Study design | Survivorship bias, overlapping observations, multiple testing and choices made after seeing results can affect what a backtest appears to show. |
Reschenhofer’s 2020 review of moving-average strategies emphasizes that results can vary with the timing of market corrections and transaction costs. CFA Institute’s 2022 discussion also highlights volatility and skewness risks. Neither point turns a strategy result into proof that an isolated death cross predicts a decline.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Common mistakes when interpreting the signal
- Calling confirmation a forecast: The averages use past prices, so the cross may arrive late rather than signal the start of weakness.
- Using famous crashes as the whole record: Severe episodes matter, but they do not establish what typically happens. Rebounds and false alarms belong in the count too.
- Confusing an event study with a trading strategy: Measuring a drawdown until a reverse cross does not show what a real investor would earn by selling, shorting or holding cash under practical execution assumptions.
- Ignoring whipsaw: A trend rule can exit and re-enter during choppy markets. A long-term average does not guarantee lower risk in every period.
- Choosing a benchmark without noticing: A stock can fall in price but outperform the median stock, or rise while underperforming it.
- Treating historical averages as current advice: Backtests do not account for an individual investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance or present circumstances.
How to use a death cross in context
If you follow the indicator, treat it as one description of trend conditions rather than a standalone buy-or-sell instruction. First identify whether the chart uses daily closing prices and the conventional 50- and 200-day averages. Then consider the broader price trend, your benchmark and the time horizon relevant to your decision. Historical studies can help frame questions, but their results do not establish what the next signal will do.
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LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist told Reuters in 2025: “It’s a very ominous sounding signal in equity markets, but when you actually back-test the death cross throughout history, you’re better off a buyer than a seller on the death cross.” That is an analyst’s interpretation of historical tests, not a guarantee or individualized investment recommendation.
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