It could, but no available evidence establishes that it will. The prediction concerns the iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO), a small-cap growth fund—not a broad-market fund—and rests partly on the possibility that small-cap stocks regain leadership. A forecast for small-cap stocks as a group is not a forecast for IWO, and it does not prove the ETF will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 20 years.
What the prediction is actually about
The Motley Fool’s October 5, 2026 article argues that IWO could outperform the S&P 500 over the next 20 years if small-cap stocks regain leadership. That is a forward-looking thesis, not a verified outcome or a guarantee. The future 20-year return comparison has not happened yet.
IWO tracks a different slice of the market from the S&P 500. It focuses on U.S. small-cap growth stocks, while the S&P 500 represents large U.S. companies across styles. Their returns can diverge because of differences in company size, growth exposure, holdings, and sector mix. A period favoring small companies or growth stocks could help IWO; a period favoring large companies or other styles could work against it.
What the cited forecast does—and does not—say
The Motley Fool article reports that Vanguard’s 2026 long-range outlook estimated annualized returns of 5.1%–7.1% for small-cap stocks and 4.6%–6.6% for large-cap stocks over 30 years. Those are the article’s reported figures; they were not independently recoverable from Vanguard’s accessible interactive table. The ranges overlap, and even taken as reported, they concern broad asset classes over 30 years—not IWO versus the S&P 500 over 20 years.
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Vanguard’s official Capital Markets Model page, dated July 22, 2026, says its forecasts are based on a June 30, 2026 model run and cover 10- and 30-year horizons. They are hypothetical nominal projections, exclude inflation, taxes, and investment expenses, and are not guarantees or actual investment results. Vanguard says the estimates update at least quarterly and can change between model runs. The page also reports a 4.2%–6.2% expected annualized return range for U.S. equities over the next 10 years, with declines across both large- and small-cap stocks; that does not establish a small-cap advantage.
Vanguard cautions: “It is important to recognize that valuations tend to be poor predictors of performance over the short or even intermediate term and should not serve as a primary reason for changing portfolio allocations.” That is a warning against treating a long-range model as a precise timing signal.
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How IWO differs from a broad S&P 500 investment
The Motley Fool article reports the following IWO details as of its October 5, 2026 publication. These are time-sensitive article-reported figures, not independently verified current issuer data.
| Measure | IWO, as reported by The Motley Fool | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Market-cap and style focus | Small-cap growth | It is a targeted segment fund, unlike broad exposure to large U.S. companies. |
| Holdings | 1,127 | A large count does not make the fund equivalent to the S&P 500; the underlying companies and their weights differ. |
| Largest listed sector weights | Healthcare: 29.2%; information technology: 20%; industrials: 15.8%; financials: 9.7% | Sector mix can affect relative returns when industries lead or lag. These weights can change. |
| Expense ratio | 0.24% | Fund expenses reduce returns; check the issuer’s current figure before investing. |
| Past performance | Approximately 10.6% average annualized return over the preceding 10 years | This is backward-looking and does not predict the next 20 years. |
The Motley Fool article also cites roughly 15% annualized S&P 500 performance over the past 16 years. That is not a fair head-to-head comparison with IWO’s reported 10-year figure: the date ranges differ. To assess historical relative performance, compare both funds over the same start and end dates and use consistent return measures, including reinvested distributions where applicable.
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What would make the prediction more or less plausible?
IWO could benefit if small-cap growth stocks outperform large U.S. companies over the chosen period. But that broad outcome alone would not settle the comparison: IWO’s specific holdings and sector exposure also matter, as do fund expenses and the exact performance window. A forecast for small-cap stocks cannot isolate those fund-specific effects.
The prediction becomes less persuasive if it treats the reported 30-year asset-class ranges as a direct forecast for IWO, or compares historical returns measured across unequal periods. Neither step answers the 20-year question. The relevant evidence would be a like-for-like future comparison, which cannot be known in advance.
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How to evaluate the claim before acting on it
- Check current fund data. Confirm IWO’s objective, holdings, sector weights, and expense ratio on the issuer’s current fund page; the figures above are reported by The Motley Fool on October 5, 2026, and may have changed.
- Match the comparison period. For historical performance, use identical start and end dates and the same return convention for IWO and an S&P 500 benchmark.
- Separate history from forecasts. A realized 10-year return describes what happened; a modeled 30-year range is a hypothetical estimate for a broad asset class. Neither establishes a 20-year result for IWO.
- Consider concentration and fit. Decide whether a small-cap growth allocation belongs in your portfolio and whether its sector and company exposure align with your risk tolerance and time horizon. Do not treat the prediction alone as a reason to change allocations.
Verdict
IWO may outperform the S&P 500 over the next 20 years, but “will crush” is stronger than the evidence supports. The cited small-cap forecast is uncertain, covers a different horizon, and is not specific to IWO. Treat the headline as a thesis to evaluate—not as an established forecast or a substitute for a matched comparison.
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