Chainalysis estimates that at least $176.3 billion in crypto activity was attributable to China from July 2025 through June 2026, with domestic peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers representing 59.1% of the total. The figures describe attributed on-chain flows—not a count of Chinese crypto owners, an official government statistic, or proof that every transaction took place in mainland China. They show activity continuing despite restrictions, not that the restrictions have had no effect.
What does the $176 billion China crypto figure actually measure?
The $176.3 billion figure is Chainalysis’s estimate of crypto activity attributed to China during its July 2025–June 2026 reporting period. The company calls it “at least” $176.3 billion and says the true amount may be higher. It also notes that the official ban makes China-attributed flows difficult to track. Its estimate is based on available blockchain data and attribution methods, not a government account or census of users. Chainalysis’s East Asia Crypto Adoption Report explains the estimate and its limits.
“China-attributed” should not be read as meaning that all of the activity occurred inside mainland China or that every wallet belongs to a mainland resident. On-chain data records transactions between addresses; attribution is an analytical estimate. The total also does not identify the purpose or legality of each transfer.
How are people in China still using crypto if it’s banned?
The reported activity is heavily weighted toward domestic P2P transfers rather than flows into centralized exchanges. Chainalysis estimates P2P transfers made up 59.1% of China’s crypto economy in the period—3.5 times the share in the prior period. In this context, P2P means transfers between users’ wallets, rather than a transaction routed through a centralized exchange. That pattern is consistent with activity taking place through channels other than conventional exchange access, but it does not by itself show how users acquired assets or where they were physically located.
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A separate Chainalysis measure found that the number of unique wallets sending China-attributed P2P stablecoin transactions grew 43-fold between Q1 2024 and Q2 2026. This is a wallet-count comparison over a different period from the $176.3 billion estimate. It is not a 43-fold rise in transaction value, users, or the total crypto economy.
The report also describes monthly incremental stablecoin P2P activity rising from roughly $240 million in March 2025 to nearly $5 billion about a year later, with growth across transaction-size bands. Those observations describe flows seen by the analytics firm; they do not identify the people behind wallets or establish their motives.
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What does China’s current crypto policy prohibit?
A February 6, 2026 notice from the People’s Bank of China and seven other agencies says virtual currencies do not have legal-tender status and that covered virtual-currency business activities conducted in China constitute illegal financial activity, are strictly prohibited, and are to be shut down. The notice continues a policy line formalized in earlier notices, including one in 2021; an official Q&A issued the same day explains that continuity.
The notice names specific covered activities rather than treating every possible holding or transaction as an identical case. They include:
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- Fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-crypto exchange;
- acting as a central counterparty for virtual-currency transactions;
- providing transaction-information intermediation or pricing services;
- token issuance and financing; and
- transactions in virtual-currency-related financial products.
It also bars financial institutions and non-bank payment providers from offering accounts, transfers, clearing, or settlement for such activity. Internet companies are restricted from providing online venues, promotion, or paid referrals related to it. The CSRC’s February 6, 2026 notice and its official Q&A set out the policy language. The notice states: “虚拟货币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位”—translated as, “Virtual currencies do not have legal status equivalent to legal tender.”
Are Chinese users buying stablecoins peer to peer?
Chainalysis’s figures point to substantial stablecoin movement through P2P transfers, but they do not establish exactly who is buying, the reason for each transaction, or whether a transfer is a purchase. The company estimates that self-custodied stablecoin holdings in its China-attributed sample turned over 33.2 times per year, compared with its global benchmark of 9.3 times. It reports average holdings of $3.1 billion and $104.1 billion transferred across 18.1 million transactions during the 2026 period.
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High turnover is consistent with stablecoins being used as working capital or settlement assets, which is Chainalysis’s interpretation of the flow pattern. It is not proof that stablecoins are widely accepted as domestic currency, nor does it establish the legality or scale of any particular payment channel.
For context, Chainalysis reports annual stablecoin turnover estimates of 9.9 times for Japan, 6.1 for Hong Kong, 5.1 for South Korea, and 3.5 for Taiwan, alongside its 9.3-times global benchmark. These comparisons describe estimated turnover, not total market size; they should not be treated as a direct measure of regulatory success or failure.
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Did China’s social-credit system cause crypto use to rise?
That causal claim is not established. Chainalysis observes that stablecoin P2P activity began rising around March 2025 and continued for 13 month-over-month periods. It notes that the timing coincided with expanded social-credit measures affecting finance and the internet, and offers two possible explanations: people excluded from conventional financial services may seek alternatives, while others may prefer channels outside monitored banking or e-commerce systems.
Chainalysis expressly describes this connection as “only a working hypothesis.” A timing overlap and on-chain activity do not demonstrate that social-credit measures caused crypto use to grow. Blockchain records cannot, on their own, reveal a wallet holder’s identity, circumstances, or motive.
What the estimates do—and do not—say about the ban
The figures show that substantial crypto flows persisted despite restrictions, with a large estimated share moving through P2P channels. That is compatible with policy constraining access to formal exchange and payment services while some activity continues elsewhere. The available data do not settle the total amount of activity, measure how much would have occurred without the restrictions, or prove that the ban caused the shift toward P2P.
A separate Chainalysis estimate says identified Chinese-language money-laundering networks processed $16.1 billion in inflows during 2025 across more than 1,799 active wallets. This is a distinct estimate of activity involving identified illicit services—not a component or correction of the $176.3 billion China-attributed economy estimate, and not a characterization of ordinary Chinese P2P transfers. Chainalysis’s report on Chinese-language money-laundering networks discusses that separate measure.
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