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By Glassnode’s September 30, 2026 report, Bitcoin was back above the short-term-holder cost basis and the True Market Mean—so the July picture of a recovery stalled below both had changed. But those crossings do not prove a durable recovery: Glassnode also reported a sell-order wall near $85,000–$85,500, faded ETF inflows and subdued spot volume. These are dated readings, not live prices; September 30 is the latest market report covered here.
Are Bitcoin holders still underwater?
Not as a whole, and not in the same way as in July. In its July 8, 2026 report, Glassnode said Bitcoin had spent about five months below both the True Market Mean and the short-term-holder cost basis. By September 23, it reported that price had moved above both. Its September 30 report put the short-term-holder cost basis at $73,300 and said Bitcoin was about 13% above it.
The change matters, but it is a market-wide cohort estimate—not confirmation that every recent buyer has recovered their personal investment. Nor does crossing a cost-basis level by itself establish that a market bottom is in.
| Date and report | Glassnode reading | What it indicates |
|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | At the report’s reference point, Bitcoin was $64,400, below the True Market Mean at $76,600 and short-term-holder cost basis at $72,200. It had rebounded from $58,300 over the preceding week. | The recovery remained below both levels after roughly five months under them. Glassnode described realized price near $53,000 as a possible lower band, not a forecast. |
| July 15, 2026 | Glassnode said long-term-holder capitulation had turned down from its peak and buyers had absorbed the June lows. | A sign of easing pressure, but the report cautioned that one turn did not demonstrate capitulation was exhausted. |
| September 23, 2026 | Bitcoin was above the True Market Mean at $77,000 and above the short-term-holder cost basis. Glassnode placed the next major on-chain resistance near $96,700. | The earlier cost-basis hurdle had been reclaimed, while confirmation remained conditional. |
| September 30, 2026 | The short-term-holder cost basis was $73,300, with price about 13% above it; the True Market Mean was $77,200. Glassnode reported a sell-order wall at $85,000–$85,500. | Price was above both measures, but overhead supply and weaker demand signals remained relevant. |
Glassnode noted that data cutoffs for its September 30 report varied from September 28 to September 30 and could be revised. Its figures should be read as report snapshots, not as current quotes.
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What does “underwater cohort” mean?
Realized price is an on-chain estimate
Glassnode defines Realized Price as the aggregate price at which each coin last moved on-chain. It uses that figure as an estimate of average on-chain acquisition price. It is not a record of what each person paid: coins can change hands off-chain, and the metric does not identify individual investors or their actual cost.
The 155-day split separates short- and long-term holders
For these measures, Glassnode classifies coins outside exchange reserves that moved within the previous 155 days as short-term-holder coins. Coins outside exchange reserves that have not moved within 155 days are classed as long-term-holder coins. These categories are based on coin movement, not verified investor identities or holding intentions.
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A cohort is “underwater” on this measure when spot price is below that cohort’s estimated realized price. If price rises above the estimate, the aggregate cohort is above its modeled cost basis. The boundary can also shift as coins age into or out of the 155-day groups; a crossing does not necessarily mean the same people or coins have been rescued. Glassnode derives the cohort levels from MVRV ratios.
Why did the July recovery look incomplete?
Price had not cleared either key level
On July 8, Glassnode reported Bitcoin below both the True Market Mean and short-term-holder cost basis, despite the preceding week’s rebound. Its report, attributed to Frederik Theissen, CryptoVizArt and Chris Beamish, said: “The bottoming process is advancing, but not yet complete.” That described the July setup, not an October outlook.
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Long-term-holder losses were still elevated
In the same July report, Glassnode said the long-term-holder share of total realized value from loss realization had risen from 15% in early February 2026 to 43%. Entity-adjusted long-term-holder realized losses had reached approximately $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022. Glassnode said this pressure had not yet cooled meaningfully.
By July 15, the firm reported that long-term-holder capitulation had turned down from its peak and that buyers had absorbed the June lows. It also warned that this single turn did not prove selling pressure was exhausted. Derivatives traders had unwound downside bets, but Glassnode had not yet seen that move followed by spot buying.
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What should you watch to judge whether the recovery is strengthening?
No single crossing establishes a bottom. A more useful assessment combines the cost-basis measures with evidence of demand and selling pressure:
- Price relative to cost-basis levels: Watch whether Bitcoin remains above the short-term-holder cost basis and True Market Mean, rather than treating one move through either level as confirmation.
- Long-term-holder realized losses: A sustained cooling in loss realization would be more reassuring than a brief decline from a peak. July’s reports showed why this matters: losses had become substantial even as the bottoming process appeared to advance.
- Spot ETF flows: Glassnode said ETF buying had picked up by September 23, but by September 30 flows had faded after two days of approximately $1 billion in inflows. Two strong days alone do not establish sustained demand.
- Spot trading volume: As of its September 30 report, Glassnode put combined spot and US spot ETF volume at an average of about $6.4 billion per day, near the low end of its post-ETF-launch range. Price holding above cost bases with muted volume is less conclusive than a move supported by expanding spot activity.
- Overhead supply: Glassnode’s September 30 report identified a sell-order wall between $85,000 and $85,500. That was a reported order-book feature, not a guarantee that price would stop there; the September 23 report separately identified major on-chain resistance near $96,700.
These indicators answer different questions: cohort cost bases show where recent on-chain activity sits in aggregate; realized losses show whether holders are realizing losses; and flows and volume help assess whether spot demand is supporting the move. Together they provide context, not a price prediction.
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