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A global synthesis published on 6 October 2026 finds that biodiversity generally supports ecosystem functions and services—and that many benefits keep increasing across observed diversity levels rather than quickly reaching a plateau. The result challenges the idea that remaining species can routinely replace those lost. It is not a claim that every species matters equally: the effects vary by service, ecosystem and context.
What the global analysis found
The study by Moffett and colleagues brought together 423 studies across terrestrial, freshwater, marine and estuarine ecosystems. It examined 23 categories of relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services or functions. The synthesis is not one field experiment: it compares evidence collected through many different studies and settings. Read the paper in Nature Ecology & Evolution.
Across the categories, linear and quadratic relationships were most prevalent; only two categories were best described by logarithmic models. In practical terms, many measured benefits continued to rise with biodiversity across the observed gradients. The authors’ interpretation is that saturation often comes later than the assumption that a small number of species can provide all the needed functions would suggest.
This is a broad pattern, not a universal rule. Some relationships level off at relatively low biodiversity, and the strength and shape of the response depend on the service being measured, the biodiversity measure, ecosystem, scale and study design. The paper also reports low-to-moderate explanatory power for many relationships: biodiversity is an important driver, but not the only factor affecting service delivery.
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How much evidence supports the result?
The counts refer to different parts of the study and should not be treated as interchangeable. The authors synthesized 423 studies and used 1,959 datasets in their standardized effect-size analysis. King’s College London describes the underlying database as containing 222,829 data points; that is neither the number of studies nor the number of effect-size datasets. King’s College London’s announcement summarizes the findings and their limits.
The evidence is uneven across ecosystem types: the authors report 1,759 terrestrial datasets, 183 freshwater datasets, 153 marine datasets and 23 estuarine datasets. Studies are also geographically concentrated in developed countries, with South America and Africa underrepresented. Those imbalances matter when interpreting a global conclusion: the synthesis is broad, but coverage is not equally deep everywhere.
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Which ecosystem benefits were most and least sensitive?
Oceanic carbon sequestration
Oceanic carbon sequestration had the strongest positive biodiversity response among the categories in the effect-size analysis, with a reported Fisher’s Z effect size of 1.48. Fisher’s Z is the paper’s transformed measure of correlation, not a percentage increase in carbon capture or a forecast for a particular restoration project. The marine evidence base is relatively small compared with the terrestrial one, so this striking result points to an important evidence gap as well as a potential conservation concern. It does not establish how much carbon a specific project would store.
Hazard regulation
Hazard regulation, including protection against coastal flooding and erosion, was relatively insensitive to overall biodiversity in the synthesis. That does not mean biodiversity is irrelevant to protection. The service may hinge on one or a few functionally unique foundational species—for example, shrubs that stabilize dunes—that other species cannot readily replace. The paper’s practical distinction is between protecting biodiversity broadly and recognizing particular species whose loss could remove a crucial function.
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Other services and functions
Most assessed benefits increased with biodiversity rather than showing an early plateau, but the response differed among categories. Freshwater decomposition, for example, may saturate at comparatively low biodiversity. A general statement that “more species always produce more of every service” would therefore overreach the findings.
What the pest-regulation forecast does—and does not—say
The researchers combined biodiversity projections linked to IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with a model of future pest regulation. The model projects that biodiversity loss may weaken biological pest regulation, with geographic differences across population and development scenarios. This is a forecast, not an observation of future outcomes.
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One uncertainty is that projected changes in biodiversity intactness do not identify which species will be lost. If species’ vulnerability is connected to their ecological roles, the actual change in pest regulation could differ from the modelled result. The forecast is best read as a warning about a plausible consequence, not a precise prediction for a particular place.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What “backup species” means for conservation
The findings challenge the idea that ecosystems have abundant interchangeable substitutes ready to take over whenever species disappear. Many services continued to respond to biodiversity across the observed range, while some depended on distinctive foundational species. These two points argue against relying on a single simple rule: neither every species’ contribution nor every service’s response is identical.
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- Protect broad diversity where multiple services and functions may benefit from it.
- Identify functionally unique species whose loss could undermine a particular service, such as coastal hazard protection.
- Interpret strong findings in light of how much evidence exists for that ecosystem and region, especially for marine systems.
The global synthesis supports a clear conclusion: biodiversity often helps sustain ecosystem benefits, and the capacity of remaining species to compensate for losses is not something to assume. The extent of that support remains context-dependent, and the least-studied ecosystems need better evidence.
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