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Yes. The U.S. Census Bureau’s analysis of the 2020 Census found a statistically significant national net undercount for the Black or African American population, even though its estimate for the total population was not statistically different from zero. The result is important for understanding census coverage, but it does not identify which Black residents or neighborhoods were missed, or quantify any local impact.
What did the Census Bureau estimate?
The Bureau’s Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) compared census records with an independent survey to estimate coverage error. Its published comparison covers the national household population and defines the race category as Black or African American alone or in combination with another race.
| Census year | Estimated net coverage error | What the Bureau concluded |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2.06% net undercount for the Black or African American alone-or-in-combination population; reported by the Census Bureau in 2022. | The 2020 estimate was not statistically different from this estimate. |
| 2020 | 3.30% net undercount for the Black or African American alone-or-in-combination population in the national household population; Census Bureau estimate published in 2022. The table reports a standard error of 0.61 percentage points. | The estimated undercount was statistically significant. The standard error describes uncertainty around the estimate; it is not an additional undercount rate. |
The Census Bureau’s March 10, 2022 release and its 2020 PES race and Hispanic-origin table are the sources for these figures. The comparison does not establish that the rate rose between 2010 and 2020: the Bureau said the two estimates were not statistically different.
What does “net undercount” mean?
It is an estimate of coverage difference, not a list of missing people
A census can miss people, count some people more than once, or include people who should not have been counted. Net coverage error compares the census count with an independent estimate of the population; an undercount means the census count falls below that estimate. Omissions and erroneous or duplicate enumerations can offset one another in the net result.
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So the 2020 figure does not mean the Bureau identified exactly that share of Black residents as individually missing. It is a statistical estimate of the net difference between counts, not a roster of people or households omitted.
How can the national total look accurate while a subgroup is undercounted?
The 2020 PES found no statistically significant net undercount or overcount for the total U.S. population, while finding statistically significant undercounts for several groups, including the Black population. These results are not contradictory: coverage errors affecting different groups can differ, and gains or losses across groups can offset in a national net estimate.
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As a result, a near-zero net estimate for the whole country does not show that every population group was covered equally. The total and subgroup findings answer different questions.
How did the Census Bureau assess coverage?
The Bureau used two complementary approaches to assess the 2020 Census. Their different data inputs and methods mean their estimates should not be treated as interchangeable.
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| Approach | Inputs and method | What it helps assess | Geographic and population scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) | An independent sample survey matched against census records using dual-system estimation. | Coverage error by estimating how census results compare with an independent survey-based estimate. The race-specific findings are net estimates, not separate counts of all omissions. | Race-specific results were available nationally for the household population. The Census Bureau cautioned that these race-specific measurements were not geographically precise at city or neighborhood scale. |
| Demographic Analysis (DA) | Vital records and other sources, including data related to migration and Medicare enrollment, used to develop population estimates. | A separate population-estimation approach that provides a complementary check on census coverage. | DA and PES have different inputs and assumptions. The cited Census Bureau material does not establish a race-specific DA rate for each locality that can be substituted for the national PES estimate. |
The Census Bureau’s PES and DA program materials describe these approaches as distinct ways of evaluating coverage. A December 2023 Bureau recommendation says race-specific PES findings were available only for the national household population and advises using them to understand the strengths and limits of the census, rather than to adjust the population-estimates base with those results.
Can the national rate tell you which cities or neighborhoods were undercounted?
No. The 3.30% result is a national estimate for the specified population and universe, not a rate measured for every state, city, county, or neighborhood. The Bureau’s race-specific PES findings do not provide a corresponding precise estimate for each local area. State-level PES results do not supply the same race-specific estimate for every state.
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The national result is relevant when interpreting census data, but applying it to a particular place would go beyond what the measurement establishes. It cannot identify which residents were missed or show how coverage varied between neighborhoods.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the estimate establish about causes and consequences?
It measures coverage, not the reason for a local difference
The coverage findings establish a measured difference between census counts and independent population estimates. On their own, they do not explain why the difference occurred in any particular community. A specific explanation requires evidence tied to that place and the people affected.
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It does not calculate local funding, representation, or service effects
The national undercount estimate does not quantify a change in public funding, political representation, services, or policy for a particular locality. Those effects depend on the relevant geography, program, and time period and require separate evidence. The national rate alone cannot support a dollar-loss calculation or a claim that a named community lost a particular amount.
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