Not according to the latest cited outlook. TrendForce’s September 30, 2026 update described NAND wafer prices as historically high and expected only a modest further increase as buyers turned cautious. That is an upstream chip-market forecast, not a measurement of USB flash-drive prices in stores. The earlier expectation that prices would fall belongs to a different market period: the NAND downturn forecast in early 2025.
What changed between the 2025 downturn and the 2026 outlook?
| Period | What TrendForce reported | What it means for USB-drive shoppers |
|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | TrendForce expected NAND prices to continue falling amid weak demand and excess supply. Suppliers were cutting production in an effort to stabilize the market. Source | This supports the earlier expectation of lower component costs, but does not establish a matching retail-price drop for USB drives. |
| February 2026 | TrendForce forecast NAND Flash contract prices would rise 55–60% quarter over quarter in 1Q26, linking the outlook to AI and data-center demand and constrained supply. Source | A sharp upstream forecast in a specific quarter—not a measured increase in consumer USB-drive prices. |
| July 2026 | TrendForce forecast NAND Flash contract prices would rise 10–15% quarter over quarter in 3Q26. It also said retail-storage demand, including USB flash drives and memory cards, remained sluggish and that high upstream costs could not be fully passed through to end markets. Source | Rising chip costs and weak USB-drive demand can coexist; neither alone specifies the price of a drive at a retailer. |
| September 30, 2026 | TrendForce said NAND wafer prices had reached historical highs and downstream channels were increasingly unable to absorb them. It expected cautious module-maker buying to limit overall price growth to a modest increase. Source | The latest cited view points to moderation in upstream price growth, not a demonstrated fall in USB-drive retail prices. |
Why NAND prices do not tell you what a USB drive costs
NAND flash is the storage component inside a USB drive, so its market price can affect manufacturers’ costs. But a NAND contract or wafer price is not the same as a store’s price for a finished drive. Retail pricing also depends on product capacity, connector and interface, supplier costs, distribution, inventory, competition, and the retailer’s pricing decisions.
TrendForce’s July update specifically noted that weak retail-storage demand—including demand for USB flash drives and memory cards—limited how much of the higher upstream cost could be passed on. The public TrendForce pricing page includes a Memory Card/UFD contract-price category, but that category is not a comparable series of retail prices for USB-drive models; its September 30 details are restricted to Gold+ members. TrendForce NAND pricing page
What this means if you are buying a USB flash drive
The available market outlook cannot tell you whether a particular drive is cheaper today than it was last month, or whether its price will fall next month. Compare the actual models you are considering rather than relying on a general claim about NAND prices.
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- Compare the same capacity and connector/interface across reputable sellers.
- Check the current price of the exact model and note whether the listing is discounted or has changed availability.
- Choose based on the drive’s fit for your devices and intended use, not on an assumed market-wide price decline.
So, are USB flash drive prices poised to go lower?
The evidence supports a more qualified answer than the headline suggests. NAND prices were expected to fall during the 2025 downturn, but 2026 brought forecasts of substantial upstream increases. By September, TrendForce expected those increases to moderate as buyers resisted historically high wafer prices. None of those updates establishes a broad fall in consumer USB-drive prices.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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