El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring pattern involving ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is the warm phase; La Niña is the cool phase. Both shift rainfall and winds in ways that change the odds of seasonal weather patterns around the world—not the guaranteed weather for a particular place or day.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO. Sea-surface temperatures become warmer than average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, alongside related changes in tropical rainfall, surface pressure and circulation. The warmer water helps shift rising, rain-producing air eastward from the western Pacific. NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO FAQ
What is La Niña?
La Niña is ENSO’s cool phase: central and east-central equatorial Pacific waters are cooler than average. Stronger easterly trade winds push warm surface water farther west, while cooler water rises in the eastern Pacific. The main region of tropical convection and rainfall consequently stays farther west, nearer Indonesia and the western Pacific. NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO FAQ
What are the main differences?
| Feature | El Niño | La Niña |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific temperature | Warmer-than-average central and east-central equatorial Pacific | Cooler-than-average central and east-central equatorial Pacific |
| Easterly trade winds | Tend to weaken | Tend to strengthen |
| Main tropical rainfall and convection | Shifts east toward the central and eastern Pacific | Stays farther west, near Indonesia and the western Pacific |
| Typical U.S. winter tendency | Southern tier often cooler and wetter; southern Alaska and the Pacific Northwest often warmer | Departures are broadly, but not exactly, reversed |
| Hurricane-season tendency | Less Atlantic activity and more eastern and central Pacific activity | More Atlantic activity and less eastern and central Pacific activity |
These are seasonal tendencies, not local forecasts. ENSO’s effects depend on the region, season and individual event. NOAA Climate.gov: El Niño and La Niña FAQs NOAA: Understanding El Niño & ENSO
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How does the Pacific pattern affect weather elsewhere?
The location of the warmest tropical Pacific water helps determine where moist air rises and heavy rain develops. When that rainfall shifts east or west, it changes the release of heat into the atmosphere and alters large-scale circulation. Winds, the jet stream and average storm tracks can then shift, influencing weather far from the tropical Pacific.
United States winter patterns
In a typical El Niño winter, southern Alaska and the U.S. Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer than average, while the southern tier—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be cooler and wetter. The Pacific jet stream often dips eastward, and the storm track shifts south, bringing moisture toward California while the Pacific Northwest is relatively drier. Very strong El Niño events can shift the track farther south.
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During La Niña, these U.S. winter departures are approximately reversed, not reliably or exactly reversed. Neither pattern determines what an individual city will experience. NOAA JetStream: Weather Impacts of ENSO NOAA Climate.gov: El Niño and La Niña FAQs
Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes
El Niño tends to increase vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. It tends to reduce shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more activity there. La Niña generally shifts those basin-level tendencies the other way. NOAA also notes that La Niña tends to favor more Atlantic storms forming in the deep tropics; such storms may be more likely to become major hurricanes and threaten the Caribbean or U.S. These are changes in seasonal risk, not predictions of how many storms will form or where any storm will go. NOAA: Understanding El Niño & ENSO
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Does ENSO cause a particular storm, drought or flood?
Not by itself. ENSO can change the odds of drought, flooding, heat and other extremes, but the affected region and the direction of the effect depend on the event and season. A storm happening during El Niño or La Niña is not, on that timing alone, proof that ENSO caused it. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts it plainly: “It is inaccurate to label individual storms or events as a La Niña or El Niño event.” NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO FAQ NOAA JetStream: Weather Impacts of ENSO
How often do El Niño and La Niña occur?
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO episodes typically occur every 3–5 years, though historical gaps have ranged from 2 to 7 years. An El Niño typically lasts 9–12 months; La Niña typically lasts 1–3 years. Both phases tend to develop from March through June, peak from December through April, and weaken from May through July. These are typical ranges, not a fixed schedule or duration. NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO FAQ
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What does the September 2026 ENSO outlook say?
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook issued in September 2026 assigned these probabilities to El Niño for overlapping three-month seasons: official CPC ENSO probabilities.
| Three-month season | El Niño probability in the September 2026 outlook |
|---|---|
| ASO 2026 | 100% |
| SON 2026 | 100% |
| OND 2026 | 100% |
| NDJ 2026–27 | 100% |
| DJF 2026–27 | 100% |
| JFM 2027 | 100% |
| FMA 2027 | 97% |
| MAM 2027 | 82% |
| AMJ 2027 | 43% |
These are forecast probabilities for the listed overlapping seasons, not guarantees about conditions in a particular place. Because CPC updates its outlook, check the linked page for the latest issue when using it to make plans.
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