For the latest official El Niño outlook, start with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): read its ENSO Diagnostic Discussion alongside the Official ENSO Probabilities. Check the issue date, target season, and index before interpreting a percentage. These are forecasts of the climate pattern—not promises about weather where you live.
Where can I find the latest El Niño forecast?
The CPC’s monthly outlook is the best starting point for a general forecast. It synthesizes observations, multiple models, and expert judgment. Read the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion for the written assessment and the Official ENSO Probabilities page for probabilities across upcoming overlapping three-month seasons.
- Open the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and note its issue date and stated ENSO conditions.
- Open the probabilities table. Find the target season and read the probability alongside the issue month; the table shows multiple overlapping three-month seasons.
- For forecast strength and the uncertainty range around index values, consult the Official Relative Oceanic Niño Index Outlook.
- If your question is about local temperature or precipitation, check CPC’s regional seasonal outlooks. An ENSO event forecast alone does not answer what will happen in a particular place.
The CPC pages are updated, so figures can change from one issue to another. As a dated example—not a permanent forecast—the 2026 CPC materials described a strengthening El Niño. The August 2026 forecast forum reported a 75% chance that October–December 2026 would reach a historic-strength threshold of +2.5°C or more for the three-month RONI value. The diagnostic discussion also gave a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. Both numbers were issue-specific outlook probabilities, not observed outcomes or guarantees. See the discussion and forecast forum for their context.
How should I compare El Niño forecasts?
Do not compare percentages or model lines until you know what each forecast refers to. A useful comparison records the following for every forecast:
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- Issue date: Forecasts issued in different months may use different observations and have different lead times.
- Target season and lead time: Compare the same overlapping three-month season, not just forecasts with similar-looking dates.
- Index and variable: Check whether the forecast uses RONI or traditional Niño-3.4 sea-surface-temperature anomalies, and note the base period if provided.
- Form of forecast: A probability range, an ensemble-mean line, and a categorical event probability communicate different things.
- Question being answered: ENSO state or strength is not the same as the probability of a regional weather impact.
NOAA began operational use of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) on February 1, 2026. RONI adjusts the traditional Niño index by comparing it with tropical-mean sea-surface-temperature departures. NOAA says this better characterizes the atmospheric response and is less dependent on the selected 30-year average. As a result, a newer RONI value should not automatically be treated as directly equivalent to an older forecast based on traditional Niño-3.4 anomalies. NOAA explains the change in its forecast forum and ENSO explainer.
Official outlook versus individual model guidance
The CPC forecast forum includes coupled and statistical guidance, including CFSv2, Markov, LDEO, ENSO-CLIPER, and an IRI summary. These products can help readers see how model guidance differs, but the CPC warns users to expect only modest skill from the predictive information. NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory also notes that model skill varies and may differ by ENSO phase. Treat an individual model as one input, not a definitive forecast; the official outlook is a broader synthesis.
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What does a probability or forecast range mean?
A probability expresses uncertainty about a defined forecast outcome. It is not a promise that the event will occur, nor does it mean the forecast is certain for that fraction of the time. Always attach the probability to its season, issue, and threshold. The CPC probabilities page also notes that a displayed 0% is approximate, not mathematically zero.
The RONI outlook uses shaded ranges associated with 50%, 70%, and 90% chances that values will remain within the indicated ranges. Those are coverage levels for the forecast ranges, not probabilities of a weather impact in a particular location. Likewise, a percentile on a strength chart describes an index’s position in a distribution; it is not the probability of rain, heat, or another local outcome. See the CPC’s probability table and RONI outlook.
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How accurate are El Niño forecasts, and why do they change?
There is no single skill score that applies to every ENSO forecast, lead time, phase, or variable. CPC cautions that users of its forecast-forum material “can expect only modest skill.” NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory similarly says skill varies among models and can depend on the ENSO phase. A claim about accuracy is meaningful only when it identifies what was forecast, how far ahead, and how forecasts were verified.
Forecasting onset is especially difficult. NOAA explains that “It is difficult to predict the onset of an El Niño, because a series of events related to the warming Pacific Ocean need to take place.” Once an event has started, forecasters have reasonably good skill predicting its intensity and evolution. This difference helps explain why early forecasts may shift as oceanic and atmospheric conditions develop. The NOAA ENSO explainer discusses onset, while the CPC’s diagnostic discussion provides its changing assessment of current conditions.
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Forecast probabilities also depend on how evidence is combined. A 2019 peer-reviewed study by Michelle L’Heureux and coauthors compared the subjective CPC approach, an objective North American Multi-Model Ensemble method, and a method that maps a forecaster’s expected value to probabilities calibrated using past skill. In that study’s assessment, the third strategy achieved higher verification scores. The result is evidence about those methods and that evaluation—not proof that one method is best for every forecast or application. Read the paper, Three Strategies for Generating Probabilistic ENSO Outlooks, for its methods and qualifications.
Does El Niño mean it will rain where I live?
No. El Niño can shift the odds of climate patterns, but it does not guarantee a particular local outcome. CPC cautions that even stronger events, which may be accompanied by greater certainty about expected impacts, never guarantee them. For a place-specific temperature or precipitation probability, use CPC seasonal outlooks rather than inferring local weather from an ENSO event forecast. The CPC’s RONI outlook states the impact caveat, and its diagnostic discussion links the event outlook to current conditions.
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