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Backblaze’s latest hard-drive report, published September 29, 2026, puts its Q2 fleet’s quarterly annualized failure rate (AFR) at 1.73%, based on 354,415 qualifying data drives. Its current published lifetime AFR is 1.41%. Neither figure tells you how many years a particular drive in a home PC or NAS will last: both describe Backblaze’s commercial data-center fleet, not a consumer lifespan guarantee.
What Backblaze’s latest hard-drive data says
The latest available report as of October 4, 2026 is Backblaze’s Q2 2026 Drive Stats report. It records 1,498 drive failures over 31,553,350 drive-days among the 354,415 drives included in the quarterly evaluation, producing a 1.73% quarterly AFR. The resource page’s current fleet-level lifetime AFR is 1.41%.
AFR means annualized failure rate. Backblaze calculates it from observed failures and drive-days for a defined fleet and period. “Annualized” expresses the observed rate in annual terms; it does not mean that each drive has that exact probability of failing over its next year, or that a drive will last a particular number of years. The lifetime figure is also a fleet statistic, not the remaining life expectancy of an individual device.
Backblaze’s 2025 calendar-year AFR was 1.36%, as reported in 2026. This is an annual fleet result, distinct from the Q2 2026 quarterly annualized rate. Backblaze’s resource page and its 2025 report announcement give different 2024 rates, so this article does not use a 2024-to-2025 comparison.
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How Backblaze measured the Q2 result
Backblaze monitored 359,101 drives during Q2 2026. It excluded 3,881 boot drives and 705 drives that did not qualify, leaving 354,415 HDDs in the quarterly evaluation. The report’s model-level quarterly table includes models with more than 100 drives and more than 10,000 drive-days during the quarter. Backblaze describes collecting daily snapshots of operational drives, including model details and SMART statistics, and publishing quarterly datasets.
These thresholds help ensure a model has some representation in the period, but they do not make results equally certain for every model. A failure rate should be considered alongside the number of drives and drive-days, the model’s average age, its capacity, and the period being measured. A model with few or no failures in one quarter may simply have had limited exposure; that result alone is not proof of stronger long-term reliability.
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In its Q2 quartile analysis, Backblaze identified rates above 6.95% as outliers. The three models above that threshold were:
| Drive model | Capacity | Q2 2026 AFR |
|---|---|---|
| HGST HUH721212ALN604 | 12TB | 7.63% |
| Seagate ST10000NM0086 | 10TB | 9.33% |
| Seagate ST14000NM0138 | 14TB | 8.26% |
Backblaze notes that these were old models and provides additional context for their elevated quarterly rates. Their Q2 results describe those models in that fleet and period; they are not evidence that every drive of the same model, including one in a different use environment, will fail at that rate.
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Why the fleet numbers do not predict a home drive’s lifespan
Backblaze operates drives continuously in commercial data centers under production workloads. Its August 2026 explanation cautions that data-center economics and maintenance differ from consumer use, and that many home users do not monitor drive health. Home PCs and NAS systems can differ in workload, operating hours, cooling, vibration, maintenance, and replacement practices. The fleet data is useful for understanding observed performance at scale, but the sources do not establish a typical consumer hard-drive lifespan in years or a consumer-use failure rate.
Use the report as one reference point when evaluating a drive model, not as a warranty, forecast, or countdown for a personal drive. For an individual device, keep important files backed up and treat SMART information as a monitoring aid rather than a guarantee that a drive is healthy or will remain operational.
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How to compare model-level results responsibly
- Compare the same table type and reporting period; do not mix a quarter’s annualized rate with a calendar-year or lifetime figure as though they measured the same interval.
- Read AFR together with the sample size, drive-days, average age, capacity, and deployment context given in the report.
- Be cautious with new or sparsely represented models, and with quarters that show few or zero failures. Short-period observations provide limited evidence about long-term reliability.
- Do not rank consumer drives from these fleet results alone. The measured workload and operating environment are Backblaze’s data centers, not a representative sample of home PCs or NAS devices.
Where to view and download the data
Backblaze publishes the quarterly report and provides a Drive Stats resource page with its current summary and dataset downloads. The resource page sets conditions for use: dataset users are asked to cite Backblaze, accept responsibility for their use, and not sell the dataset itself. Check Backblaze’s dataset schema when working with the downloadable files.
- Read Backblaze’s Q2 2026 Drive Stats report.
- View the Drive Stats resource and dataset downloads.
- Read Backblaze’s explanation of its dataset and data-center context.
For background on why Backblaze tracks the fleet, Pat Patterson, the company’s chief technical evangelist, said in a February 12, 2026 announcement that Drive Stats has given the storage community a view of drive performance at scale for 13 years. He also connected that operational knowledge to the company’s work with higher-capacity drives in its data centers. Read the announcement.
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