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There is no evidence-based outright winner without a matched-date valuation comparison. BHP offers large-scale, commodity-sensitive earnings and a reported FY2026 dividend; Codan has faster recent growth and upgraded FY2027 Communications guidance, but limited visibility on conflict-region demand beyond three months. The better fit depends on the business risks you want—and the price you pay.
How BHP and Codan compare
| Factor | BHP | Codan |
|---|---|---|
| Business | Diversified miner with exposure to copper, iron ore and coal, plus potash development. | Technology group operating in Communications and Metal Detection, including Minelab detectors. |
| Latest reported year | FY2026, year ended 30 June 2026; results released 18 August 2026. | FY2026, year ended 30 June 2026; results released 20 August 2026. |
| FY2026 scale and earnings | Underlying EBITDA of about US$33 billion; attributable profit of US$9.8 billion; free cash flow of US$9.8 billion. BHP reported net debt below US$9 billion. | Revenue of A$875.0 million, up 30%; EBIT of A$244.1 million, up 67%; NPAT of A$175.2 million, up 69%. Codan reported net cash of A$35.7 million at 30 June 2026. |
| FY2026 shareholder distributions | Total cash dividends of US$1.72 per share; payout ratio of 72%. | Dividend of A$0.485 per share, fully franked, up 70% year on year. |
| Forward growth evidence | BHP describes average copper-equivalent production growth of 5% a year from FY2027 to FY2035 as an aspiration, subject to conditions. Jansen Stage 1 potash first production was on track for mid-CY2027 in the FY2026 results release. | In its 29 September 2026 update, Codan targeted FY2027 Communications revenue growth of 30–40% versus FY2026 and estimated H1 FY2027 Communications revenue of A$400–410 million. Group H1 FY2027 NPAT was expected to be at least A$160 million, subject to product mix and shipments. |
The figures above are company-reported. BHP’s FY2026 results were aided by strong prices, including record copper prices, so that year’s earnings should not be treated as a guaranteed run rate. The two companies also report in different currencies and operate at very different scales; their raw dividend amounts are not directly comparable.
Which company has the stronger growth case?
BHP: long-range growth depends on projects and prices
BHP’s copper contribution exceeded half of underlying EBITDA for the first time in FY2026. That shows how important copper has become to its current earnings, but also how strongly results can respond to commodity prices. Its stated 5% average annual copper-equivalent production growth aspiration covers FY2027 to FY2035; BHP explicitly does not present it as a projection, forecast or production target. Achieving it depends on projects, capital allocation, approvals and other conditions.
BHP said it expected to spend around US$11 billion per year on average on capital projects over the medium term. That investment could support future production, while creating project-delivery and capital-allocation risks. The Jansen Stage 1 schedule is a nearer-term milestone, not proof that the longer-range growth aspiration will be achieved.
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Codan: faster guidance, shorter demand visibility
Codan’s September update provides a more near-term growth signal: its Communications revenue target is guidance for FY2027, not an achieved result. The company said demand from conflict regions was difficult to forecast beyond three months and that it was too early to know whether elevated demand and margins would continue in H2 FY2027. It also said it was monitoring potential electronics supply-chain constraints.
Codan’s FY2026 growth came from both Communications and Metal Detection. That gives it more than one operating segment, but does not remove the risks of changing demand, product mix, shipment timing or execution. The update’s H1 group NPAT expectation is also conditional on product mix and shipments.
What the dividends do—and do not—tell you
The reported per-share dividends give a record of distributions, not a current yield comparison. To compare yields, use prices from the same date and a consistent method; account for the USD/AUD difference and, for Codan, the effect of franking based on your own tax circumstances. The supplied dividend amounts alone cannot establish which share offers more income at today’s price.
Which share may fit your investment case?
- BHP may suit investors seeking exposure to a large, diversified mining group, substantial reported cash generation and a material shareholder distribution. Its earnings remain exposed to commodity prices, production performance and capital-intensive project delivery.
- Codan may interest growth-oriented investors willing to accept greater dependence on Communications demand and less certainty about how long elevated conflict-region orders and margins will last. Its FY2027 guidance offers a growth signal, but not assurance that the pace will persist.
These are general business-case distinctions, not personalised recommendations. An investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, tax position and existing portfolio can change which risks matter most.
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Not from the available matched-date information. InvestSMART listed Codan at A$67.45 at the 2 October 2026 close, but that is secondary delayed quote information and there is no reliably sourced BHP closing price for the same date here. Without paired prices and consistent valuation inputs, such as multiples calculated on the same earnings basis, neither share can be called cheaper or the stronger buy on valuation grounds.
Before deciding, check both ASX share prices for the same trading date, then compare valuation measures calculated on a consistent basis. If estimating dividend yield, use those same-date prices and make the currency and franking assumptions explicit.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Risks investors should weigh
BHP: commodity exposure and project execution
BHP’s FY2026 results benefited from strong commodity prices, and its future production ambitions require substantial investment and successful project delivery. Its results release also reported that a contractor was fatally injured at BMA in July 2026 and that an investigation was underway.
Codan: demand duration and supply
Codan’s upgraded Communications outlook is paired with its own warning that conflict-region demand is hard to forecast beyond three months. The company also flagged possible electronics supply-chain constraints. Those disclosures make demand duration, margins and the ability to ship products central uncertainties for its near-term outlook.
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