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Whether a prediction market can offer sports contracts is not settled nationwide. In 2026, the Ninth and Sixth Circuits rejected Kalshi’s arguments for preliminary relief in disputes involving Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee, but their rulings address particular contracts, state laws and injunction proceedings—not every platform or state. Meanwhile, the CFTC withdrew an earlier proposal and staff advisory, then issued a different proposed rule that is not yet final.
Why a sports contract is not automatically a sports bet—or a CFTC-regulated swap
Prediction markets often describe contracts by the event whose outcome determines their payout. The CFTC says it has used “event contract” since at least 2008 for derivative contracts, typically with binary payoffs. But “event contract” is not itself a term defined in the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) or CFTC regulations. The label alone therefore does not decide which statute applies.
The CFTC’s June 2026 proposal says event contracts may fall within the CEA’s definition of a “swap” or may be futures. The legal question in the recent sports-contract cases was whether the specific contracts at issue met the relevant statutory definition and, if so, whether federal law displaced the state gambling rules being enforced. The Ninth and Sixth Circuits did not accept Kalshi’s showing that its sports contracts were swaps within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.
That distinction matters because a product’s presence on a CFTC-registered exchange does not, by itself, resolve whether a state may apply its gambling laws to that product. The courts considered statutory classification and preemption separately; neither treated a platform listing as an automatic nationwide answer.
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What the Ninth and Sixth Circuits decided
| Court and decision | State dispute | Ruling on sports contracts | Procedural result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ninth Circuit, KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, August 28, 2026 | Nevada | The court concluded the sports-event contracts in that case were not “swaps” under the relevant statutory provision and therefore were not subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. It also stated that CFTC regulations then prohibited offering contracts related to gaming on prediction markets. | It affirmed dissolution of an injunction as to sports event contracts and remanded for consideration of election contracts. |
| Sixth Circuit, KalshiEX LLC v. Schuler and KalshiEX LLC v. Orgel, September 25, 2026 | Ohio and Tennessee | The court held Kalshi had not shown that the sports contracts met the statutory definition of a “swap” within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Alternatively, even assuming the contracts were swaps, the court held the CEA did not expressly or impliedly preempt the gambling laws at issue. | It affirmed denial of a preliminary injunction in Ohio, vacated the Tennessee preliminary injunction and remanded. |
These are appellate rulings on preliminary-injunction disputes, not a Supreme Court decision settling the issue for the entire country. Their reach is also bounded by the states and legal questions before each court. They are important signals for platforms and state regulators, but they do not establish that every sports contract is lawful or unlawful everywhere.
How the CFTC’s position changed in 2026
| Date | Agency action | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| February 4, 2026 | The CFTC withdrew its 2024 “Event Contracts” proposed rule and said it did not intend to issue final rules based on that proposal. Staff also withdrew the September 30, 2025 advisory on certain contract markets. | The 2024 proposal and 2025 staff advisory are withdrawn, not current final rules. Chairman Michael S. Selig said, “While intended to highlight litigation considerations, the advisory inadvertently created confusion and uncertainty for our market participants.” |
| June 12, 2026 | The CFTC proposed a different set of amendments concerning event-contract derivatives and the statutory public-interest determination process. | This is a proposal, not a final rule. It describes a structured review process and discusses when contracts involve listed activities such as gaming. |
For sports markets, the June proposal identifies sport-level integrity arrangements and information sharing as potentially relevant to the public-interest assessment. It also points to possible features of sports-integrity infrastructure, such as a recognized governing body, monitoring, rules and disciplinary processes. These are factors the agency says may matter in its proposed framework; they are not a declaration that any particular sports market has passed a final federal review.
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What the rulings and proposal mean for the legal dispute
- Contract classification remains central. Calling a product an event contract or listing it on an exchange does not establish that it is a swap under the CEA. The classification depends on the applicable statutory test and the particular contract.
- Preemption is a separate question. Even if a contract is assumed to be a swap, the Sixth Circuit held that the CEA did not preempt the Ohio and Tennessee gambling laws before it. The Ninth Circuit addressed Nevada and concluded the sports contracts in that case were outside the relevant swap provision.
- State and procedural context matter. The appeals involved preliminary injunctions and different state enforcement disputes. A ruling about one state’s law or one stage of a case should not be described as a final nationwide authorization or ban.
- Federal policy is still in motion. The June 2026 CFTC proposal could shape future agency decisions if finalized, but it did not replace the withdrawn proposal with a binding final rule.
The CFTC’s June proposal reported that trading volume across CFTC-registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025. That is the agency’s figure for that year, cited in its 2026 proposed rule; it describes aggregate trading volume, not a legal finding about sports contracts or a measure of consumer returns.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What consumers should check before trading
The CFTC’s customer guidance emphasizes contract-level terms and platform authenticity. A market price reflects participants’ perceived probability of an outcome, and customers may be able to trade out before settlement at the then-current market price. Neither point guarantees a particular probability, exit price or payout.
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- Read the risk disclosures. Identify the risks the platform says apply to the contract.
- Check fees and costs. Review the charges that may affect the result of entering, holding or exiting a position.
- Understand the trading rules. Check when trading is permitted and what conditions apply before settlement.
- Read the payout and settlement terms. Find out what outcome triggers payment and how the platform determines that outcome.
- Verify the website or app. The CFTC advises checking links from the trading website to confirm that a mobile app or site is authentic.
These checks help explain what a contract promises and how it is administered; they do not establish that a sports contract is available or lawful in every state. Legal status can depend on state enforcement and further court or agency action. This account reflects the cited appellate decisions and CFTC actions through October 3, 2026; later docket developments could change the procedural picture.
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