Not as reliably as they once were. A four-decade analysis of Swiss protective forests found that higher elevation remained associated with lower drought-stress metrics, but the resilience advantage of growing stands at higher altitudes progressively faded. The finding concerns how forests withstand and recover from drought—not proof that altitude no longer matters or that every mountain forest now responds like a lowland one.
What the study found about altitude and drought
Estelle Noyer, Luuk Dorren, Barbara Allgaier Leuch, and Christine Moos analyzed Swiss National Forest Inventory data from 1983–2022 alongside satellite observations of canopy moisture. Their study, published in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change on 1 October 2026, found a changing relationship between elevation and the resilience of growing stands.
The distinction is important: drought stress and drought resilience are related, but they are not the same measure. Across inventory periods, drought-stress metrics generally decreased with altitude. Yet among stands classified as growing, the altitude effect on canopy resilience weakened over time. Combined resilience lost its altitude relationship first, followed by resistance; the relationship with recovery disappeared in the most recent period. The authors interpret this pattern as a convergence in canopy responses across elevations.
That does not establish that high elevations have lost every advantage against drought. Nor does it show that elevation has no bearing on other forest conditions. It shows that, in the growing stands and resilience measures studied, higher altitude became a less reliable predictor of how the canopy resisted and recovered from drought.
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Stress, resistance, recovery and resilience: what the terms mean
- Drought stress describes the drought conditions or impacts reflected in the study’s metrics. These generally remained lower at higher elevations.
- Resistance captures how well canopy moisture holds up during a drought.
- Recovery captures the canopy’s response after drought.
- Combined resilience brings resistance and recovery together to describe canopy response across the drought episode.
The researchers estimated canopy moisture using the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), calculated from August Landsat images. NDMI is an indicator of canopy moisture; it is not a direct measurement of tree growth or biomass.
How the Swiss forest analysis was conducted
The researchers retained an average of 1,380 protective-forest stands per inventory period, with a range of 891–1,543. The plots spanned 281.9 to 2,218.6 metres above sea level and were grouped into five elevation belts. Plots showing recent forestry intervention or fire traces were excluded.
For stand structure, the team examined measures including basal area and net stem density. For canopy moisture, it used Landsat 5, 7 and 8 observations from August 1984–2022. Each inventory-period analysis was conducted separately, so this is an observational account of patterns over time—not a randomized experiment that proves what caused them.
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Stands with positive relative basal-area increment were classed as “growing”; those with negative increment were classed as “declining.” The distinction matters because the two groups showed different patterns.
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| Stand group | What the study found |
|---|---|
| Growing | The altitude effect on drought resilience progressively faded: first for combined resilience, then resistance, and finally recovery in the latest period. Average relative annual net stem-density increment fell from 2.84% in the first inventory interval to 1.92% in the last. |
| Declining | Drought stress was higher, particularly in the two most recent inventory periods. The researchers found no altitude-related differences in the resilience components in any period. |
In growing stands, the overall decline in basal-area increment was driven by falling stem density, rather than reduced average growth by individual trees, according to the authors. Net stem-density change cannot, however, distinguish tree mortality from new trees entering the measured population.
Why high-elevation forests are not immune
Five extreme drought episodes—2003, 2006, 2015, 2018 and 2022—each affected more than 30% of the studied stands, including stands in the highest elevation belt. That finding shows that severe drought reached stands across the elevation range; it does not mean every stand was affected equally.
The study also found broad drought vulnerability among large, dominant trees. In declining stands in the highest belt, growth shifted toward smaller trees in the two latest periods. The authors say it remains unclear whether that pattern signals a route to recovery or a slower decline.
Why the results matter for protective forests
Protective forests are managed for their role in helping shield people and infrastructure from hazards such as avalanches, rockfall, landslides, flooding, and debris or sediment transport. The study’s introduction, citing Strauss and Fischer (2025), reports that they cover 540,000 hectares—44% of Switzerland’s forest area.
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If stands become less able to withstand or recover from drought, their protective function may be at greater risk. In an interview with Earth.com, lead author Estelle Noyer said the findings suggest protective forests could offer less protection against natural hazards, particularly at lower elevations. That is a practical concern, not a measured forecast of specific damage to any town or infrastructure.
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What the study suggests—and does not prove—about management
The authors point to adaptive management that preserves sufficient stem density, structural heterogeneity and cohorts of drought-tolerant trees. These are proposed priorities, not treatments whose effectiveness this study tested. It does not quantify how much thinning, a particular species mix, or any other intervention would reduce drought risk, and it does not prescribe a universal planting recipe.
The authors describe the greatest need for attention at low and middle elevations, while the findings also show that extreme drought affected stands in the highest belt. Management decisions therefore need to reflect local forest conditions and hazard-protection needs rather than assume that elevation alone ensures resilience.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the evidence
The analysis documents long-term patterns; it does not demonstrate that climate change alone caused every change. The authors discuss repeated drought, changes in forest composition and acclimation as possible contributors. The study did not include tree species as a predictor, so it cannot determine whether patterns reflect differences among trees of the same species or turnover toward more drought-tolerant species.
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There are also measurement limits. The water-balance drought index does not represent delayed snowmelt as delayed soil-water input, which may overstate drought stress at high elevations. Transitions between Landsat sensors add uncertainty, particularly around the 2003 sensor failure. These qualifications matter when interpreting the precise mechanisms behind a pattern that the study identifies across decades.
Read the full study in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change for its methods and results.
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