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Republican strategist Karl Rove said he believes Ken Paxton will lose his Senate bid if he declines to debate James Talarico. That is Rove’s political judgment, not a confirmed election outcome or proof that skipping a debate would decide the race.
What Rove said about a debate
Rove made the remarks during a Wednesday appearance at the Economic Club of Chicago with Democratic strategist David Axelrod, according to AOL’s report by Mira Bhakta, updated October 3, 2026. Rove said, “If he doesn’t debate, I think he loses.”
He also described the challenge Paxton would face if he did participate: “If he debates, the question is, is he going to be able to go on the offense?” Axelrod argued that Paxton was not skilled in debates, saying, “There’s a reason he hasn’t debated in 16 years. He’s not adroit.” Rove put the question differently: “The question is, does he have the guts to do it?”
Has Paxton agreed to debate Talarico?
The AOL report says Talarico had repeatedly criticized Paxton for not appearing in debates and had recently challenged him to a Fox News debate during a CBS interview. It does not report that Paxton accepted, or that a debate date was scheduled or a debate took place.
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Why Rove raised Paxton’s impeachment
In discussing how Paxton might respond to criticism in a hypothetical debate, Rove referred to Paxton’s 2023 impeachment. The report says Texas House representatives voted to indict Paxton on corruption charges and that the Texas Senate later acquitted him. Impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate are distinct events; the report’s account does not establish a criminal conviction.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the poll cited in the report shows
The article cites a Fox News poll from September 2026 that put Talarico 2 points ahead of Paxton, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. It also reports net favorability ratings of +8 for Talarico and -18 for Paxton. These are figures as reported by AOL; the original poll release and methodology are not independently established here.
The reported lead therefore does not establish that Talarico was definitively ahead, nor does it show that debating—or declining to debate—would change the result. Rove’s statement remains a conditional prediction rather than a polling conclusion.
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