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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →China has not been shown to have reached 40% self-sufficiency across its semiconductor market. The clearest directly comparable estimate in the available evidence is 16.6% for 2020. A 2025 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission assessment put local sourcing at about 30% by the end of 2025, but that was a projection—not a measured final result. China has advanced further in some mature-chip segments than those whole-market figures suggest.
What does “40% chip self-sufficiency” mean?
A self-sufficiency percentage should compare domestic supply with a defined amount of domestic demand. But “domestic” can mean chips made in mainland China, chips made by Chinese-owned companies, or both. The result also changes depending on whether the denominator is all chips used in China or a narrower category, such as foundational chips.
Those distinctions matter because production capacity, output, domestic market share and self-sufficiency are different measures. A factory in China may be foreign-owned; a Chinese company may make chips abroad; and a rise in capacity or output does not establish how much of China’s chip consumption local producers supplied.
The 40% figure also needs context. Made in China 2025 set a broad localization milestone of 40% autonomous assurance for core components and key materials by 2020, rising to 70% by 2025. Separately, semiconductor evaluations tracked a 50% domestic-market-share goal for semiconductors by 2020. Neither figure is interchangeable with a measured 40% whole-market semiconductor self-sufficiency rate.
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What the available figures show
| Measure | Figure | What it does—and does not—show |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor self-sufficiency | 16.6% in 2020 | The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s 2025 report gives this as the clearest directly comparable whole-market self-sufficiency estimate in the evidence available here. |
| Local sourcing of China’s chips | About 30% by the end of 2025 | The Commission’s 2025 report presents this as an assessment or projection, not a measured result for the end of 2025. |
| Chinese companies’ share of global foundational-node logic wafer capacity | 33% in 2023, up from 19% in 2015 | The Commission defines foundational chips here as 28-nanometer and larger. This is a global capacity share, not the share of chips consumed in China supplied domestically. |
| China-based equipment makers’ share of domestic 20–14-nm chipmaking-equipment demand | 9.6% in 2023 | The Commission’s figure illustrates a domestic-equipment gap in this process range; it is not a measure of chip supply. |
| Integrated-circuit output | 2,614 hundred-million units in 2020; 4,843 hundred-million units in 2025 | These National Bureau of Statistics of China figures measure output—equivalent to 261.4 billion and 484.3 billion units—not the proportion of domestic demand met by local producers. |
| Integrated-circuit manufacturing value added | Up 26.7% in 2025 | The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports this as a growth rate, not a self-sufficiency ratio. |
These percentages cannot be combined into one countdown. The 16.6% figure is a self-sufficiency estimate for 2020; the roughly 30% figure is a later assessment of local sourcing; and the 33% figure concerns Chinese companies’ share of global foundational-node capacity. They answer different questions.
Where China has made the most progress
Mature and foundational chips
China’s position is stronger in foundational chips than at the leading edge. The Commission says Chinese companies’ share of global foundational-node logic wafer capacity rose from 19% in 2015 to 33% in 2023. It also reports that China’s mature-node capacity grew more than four times faster than global demand from 2015 to 2023.
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The same Commission report says China-based firms are projected to account for nearly half of new mature-node capacity over the following three to five years. That is a projection about new capacity, not a promise that the facilities will all be completed, run at full utilization or supply Chinese customers. More capacity can improve resilience and raise local production without proving that China meets 40% of its overall chip needs from domestic sources.
Scale and industrial investment
Official output statistics show a major increase in the number of integrated circuits produced: 4,843 hundred-million units in 2025, compared with 2,614 hundred-million units in 2020. Manufacturing value added rose 26.7% in 2025, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Those are indicators of expansion, but neither tells readers what share of chips used in China came from domestic manufacturers.
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The Commission’s 2025 report also describes more than $150 billion in state-led semiconductor investment by 2024. It compares that amount with roughly three times the funding earmarked for U.S. semiconductor production under the CHIPS and Science Act. Investment can support capacity and capabilities across the industry; it does not, by itself, establish a particular self-sufficiency rate.
Why advanced-chip self-sufficiency remains harder
Progress in mature-node production should not be mistaken for independence across the whole semiconductor supply chain. The Commission reports that China-based equipment manufacturers met only 9.6% of domestic demand for chipmaking equipment in the 20–14-nanometer range in 2023. That gap matters because chipmakers need equipment and other inputs as well as fabrication capacity.
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The Commission says many analysts assess China to be at least two years behind the cutting edge. That is an attributed assessment, not a precise measurement of every chip category or company. The report also identifies U.S. and partner export controls as a factor likely to delay advanced-chip development. These constraints help explain why gains in mature-node capacity do not translate automatically into leading-edge independence.
Localization rates also vary across chip design, wafer fabrication, packaging and testing, materials, and equipment. A strong result in one part of the chain cannot stand in for self-sufficiency across all of it. Nor does output alone show how much local production serves domestic demand rather than exports or other customers.
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What to watch next
On March 5, 2026, Xinhua reported that China’s draft 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030 would pursue “decisive breakthroughs across full chains in integrated circuits.” This signals continued policy emphasis on the semiconductor supply chain. The cited report does not set a new numerical deadline for reaching 40% semiconductor self-sufficiency.
- Check the denominator: Does a new percentage refer to all chips used in China, a particular chip category, or a share of global capacity?
- Check the ownership rule: Does “domestic” mean made in China, made by Chinese-owned firms, or either?
- Separate actual results from forecasts: A projected sourcing share or planned capacity addition is not a measured market outcome.
- Look beyond wafer output: Equipment, materials, design and packaging are distinct parts of the supply chain, each with its own localization profile.
Without those definitions, a headline percentage can make unlike figures appear comparable. The strongest evidence supports rapid progress in production scale and foundational-chip capacity, but not a verified 40% self-sufficiency rate for China’s semiconductor market.
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