The Tool Desk
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Which chips are in short supply?
The concern in the cited smartphone outlooks is principally DRAM, which phones use as working memory, and NAND, used for storage. IDC linked the squeeze to rising demand from AI infrastructure and manufacturers directing some production capacity toward higher-margin memory products. That can leave less capacity for consumer electronics and make the memory available to phone makers more expensive. IDC’s analysis estimated memory at 15–20% of the bill of materials for a mid-range phone and 10–15% for a high-end flagship in 2025.
Because memory is only one part of a phone, the effects need not appear as a simple across-the-board price rise. A manufacturer might raise a model’s price, offer fewer inexpensive configurations, reduce memory or storage at a given price, shift its lineup toward pricier devices, or absorb some of the cost in lower margins. IDC reported that NAND and DRAM costs had risen by more than 300% year over year in its September 2026 outlook; that is a reported component-cost change, not a prediction that phone prices will rise by the same amount. IDC’s September outlook projected a lower shipment volume and a higher average selling price.
What do the 2026 forecasts say?
The figures below are forecasts published at different points in 2026, not observed full-year results. Their assumptions and publication dates differ, so they should not be treated as competing measurements of the same settled outcome.
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| Publisher and date | Smartphone shipment forecast for 2026 | Price or scenario detail |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Down 8.4% worldwide versus 2025 | Prices projected to rise 13% by the end of 2026 versus 2025 |
| Omdia, March 4, 2026 | Down around 7% under its baseline, using Q1 memory-price assumptions that anticipated some easing in the second half | Down more than 15% in its downside scenario if memory prices continue to rise and geopolitical pressures intensify |
| IDC, September 2026 | Down 16.7% worldwide, to just over 1 billion units | Average selling price projected at $581, up 27.6% in a year |
Gartner’s, Omdia’s, and IDC’s estimates moved as the year progressed. For example, Omdia’s baseline depends on its stated assumption about memory prices easing later in the year, while its downside case depends on continued increases and intensifying geopolitical pressure. The forecasts indicate uncertainty and potential market pressure; they do not establish the price, availability, or likely discount of a specific phone in a specific country. Sources: Gartner, February 26, 2026; Omdia, March 4, 2026; IDC, September 2026.
Which phones and buyers may be most affected?
Entry-level and budget phones
Buyers focused on the lowest prices may face the greatest pressure. Gartner said rising memory costs would disproportionately affect entry-level smartphones, while IDC described low-end vendors with thin margins as more exposed to cost increases. Possible consequences include fewer low-cost choices or trade-offs in memory and storage. These are market-level assessments, not guarantees about a particular model. Gartner’s forecast also noted that higher prices could narrow the range of devices available.
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- Please note, this device does not support E-SIM; This 4G model is compatible with all GSM networks worldwide outside of the U.S. In the US, ONLY compatible with T-Mobile and their MVNO's (Metro and Standup). It will NOT work with Verizon, Spectrum, AT&T, Total Wireless, other CDMA carriers, it is also not compatible with their MVNO (Visible, Xfinity Mobile, US Mobile, Cricket Wireless, etc).
- Compatibility with certain third-party devices and accessibility accessories, including some hearing aids, may vary depending on manufacturer support, Bluetooth protocols, software compatibility, and regional firmware limitations. For additional hearing aid compatibility information, please refer to Samsung’s official support documentation.
- 4G LTE Bands: B1/B3/B5/B7/B8/B20/B28/B38/B40/B41
- Display: Super AMOLED, 90Hz, 800 nits (HBM) | 6.7 inches, 110.2 cm2 (~86.0% screen-to-body ratio) | 1080 x 2340 pixels, 19.5:9 ratio (~385 ppi density)
- Camera: 50 MP, f/1.8, (wide), 1/2.76", 0.64µm, AF | 50 MP, f/1.8, (wide), 1/2.76", 0.64µm, AF | 2 MP, f/2.4, (macro)
Premium phones and larger vendors
Premium models may be relatively more resilient because their margins can provide more room to absorb higher component costs. IDC also identified Apple and Samsung as having structural advantages, including scale and longer-term supply agreements. Neither advantage guarantees stable prices or availability for every model. IDC’s December 2025 analysis describes the vendor differences as an assessment of exposure, not a promise of supply.
How should you decide whether to buy, wait, or choose refurbished?
If your current phone still works for you
Keeping it longer is a reasonable option if its battery, performance, software support, and storage still meet your needs. Gartner identified longer upgrade cycles as one possible consumer response to higher prices. There is no evidence here that waiting will necessarily make a replacement cheaper; timing depends on local prices, product availability, and future market conditions.
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- Please note, this device does not support E-SIM; This 4G model is compatible with all GSM networks worldwide outside of the U.S. In the US, ONLY compatible with T-Mobile and their MVNO's (Metro and Standup). It will NOT work with other CDMA carriers, and it is also not compatible with their MVNO (Visible, Xfinity Mobile, US Mobile, Cricket Wireless, etc).
- Compatibility with certain third-party devices and accessibility accessories, including some hearing aids, may vary depending on manufacturer support, Bluetooth protocols, software compatibility, and regional firmware limitations. For additional hearing aid compatibility information, please refer to Samsung’s official support documentation.
- Camera: 50 MP, f/1.8, (wide), 1/2.76", 0.64µm, AF | 50 MP, f/1.8, (wide), 1/2.76", 0.64µm, AF | 2 MP, f/2.4, (macro). Battery: 5000 mAh, non-removable | A power adapter is NOT included.
If you need a replacement now
- Check actual local listings and availability rather than using a global shipment forecast to infer whether a model is in stock.
- Compare the exact memory and storage configuration at each price. A lower-priced version may not be equivalent to a configuration you were considering.
- Compare the total price and seller support, not just the advertised price. For financing, check current terms and eligibility in your country.
If you are considering refurbished or second-hand
Gartner identified refurbished and second-hand phones as alternatives some buyers may consider. Compare the device’s condition, memory and storage, total price, and the seller’s return or support terms. The forecasts do not establish the quality or value of any individual listing, so assess that offer on its own terms.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the forecasts cannot tell you
The cited outlooks concern global markets; they do not provide a live inventory count or country-specific retail price series. They cannot show whether a particular retailer has stock, whether a particular phone’s price will change, or whether buying now will save you money. Treat projections as context for possible market-wide pressure, then make the purchase decision using current local listings and the exact configuration you need.
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- Charger NOT Included, 6.7" Super AMOLED FHD+, 90Hz Refresh Rate, 385 ppi, 800 nits (HBM), 1080x2340px, 5000mAh Battery
- 128GB, 4GB RAM, microSDXC, Exynos 1330 (5nm), Octa-Core, Mali-G68 MP2 or Mali-G57 MC2 GPU
- Rear Camera: 50MP, f/1.8 (wide) + 5MP, f/2.2 (ultrawide) + 2MP, f/2.4 (macro), LED flash, panorama, HDR; Front Camera: 13MP, f/2.0, Android 14, up to 6 major Android upgrades, One UI 6.1
- 3G: HSDPA 850/900/1700(AWS)/1900/2100; 4G LTE: 1/2/3/4/5/7/12/13/14/20/25/26/28/29/30/38/39/40/41/48/66/71, 5G: 2/5/25/41/66/71/77/78 SA/NSA/Sub6/mmWave - Nano-SIM + eSIM
- US Model – Global Connectivity – Compatible with Most GSM Carriers like T-Mobile, AT&T, MetroPCS, etc. Will Also work with CDMA Carriers Such as Verizon, Straight Talk.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

