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The standard error of the regression tells you how far observed outcomes typically fall from a regression’s fitted values, in the outcome’s original units. R-squared tells you what proportion of variation in the outcome is accounted for by the fitted model, as a unitless proportion. They measure different aspects of fit, so neither replaces the other.

How the standard error of the regression is calculated

For observation i, the residual is the difference between the observed outcome and the model’s fitted value: eᵢ = yᵢ − ŷᵢ. Squaring and adding the residuals gives the error sum of squares, SSE = Σ(yᵢ − ŷᵢ)².

For a model fitted to n observations with p fitted parameters, the residual mean square is MSE = SSE/(n − p). The regression standard error is its square root: S = √(SSE/(n − p)) = √MSE. It estimates the standard deviation of the regression errors. Penn State describes this relationship in its STAT 501 regression lesson, and NIST/SEMATECH gives the residual standard-deviation formula in its least-squares reference.

Interpret the result in the units of the response variable. If the outcome is measured in dollars, the standard error is in dollars; if it is measured in centimeters, the standard error is in centimeters. A smaller value indicates tighter residuals for the same outcome and scale, all else equal. It is not a percentage of observations that fall within a particular distance.

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How R-squared is calculated

R-squared compares the model’s residual variation with the outcome’s total variation around its sample mean. Let SSTO = Σ(yᵢ − ȳ)² be the total sum of squares. When the usual regression sum-of-squares decomposition applies, R² = 1 − SSE/SSTO, equivalently the regression sum of squares divided by SSTO.

R-squared is dimensionless: it has no outcome units. An R-squared of 0.70, for example, means the fitted model accounts for 70% of the observed variation about the outcome mean under that regression setup. It does not mean the model is “70% accurate” for individual predictions. Penn State explains the definition and interpretation in its simple regression lesson and multiple regression lesson.

Key differences at a glance

Measure Question it answers Scale Usual direction
Regression standard error How large are residual deviations around fitted values? Original units of the outcome Smaller means tighter residuals, when comparing the same outcome and scale
R-squared What share of variation about the mean is accounted for by the model? Unitless proportion Larger means a greater share is accounted for, but context and model complexity matter

The standard error communicates residual size in interpretable units; R-squared puts the model’s fit in relation to the outcome’s total variation. A standard error should not be compared casually across outcomes measured on different scales or in different units.

Which measure should you use?

Use the measure that matches the question you need to answer. To describe the typical scale of residual deviations in practical units, report the regression standard error. To describe the share of variation accounted for by the fitted predictors, report R-squared. For a useful account of a model, they can be reported together because they are complementary rather than competing scores.

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Neither number alone establishes whether a model is suitable for its purpose. Check residual patterns and relevant model assumptions, and assess prediction performance when prediction is the goal. Interpretation also depends on the research question and the consequences of errors.

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Important caveats when interpreting the numbers

A high R-squared does not prove causation

R-squared describes fit, not whether a predictor causes an outcome. A large value—or an association between predictors and the outcome—does not by itself establish a causal relationship. Penn State explicitly cautions against reading “explained” as proof of causation in its STAT 501 discussion.

There is no universal “good” R-squared cutoff

What counts as a useful R-squared depends on the field, data, and task. Expectations may differ substantially between social science and engineering, so compare a result with relevant domain norms rather than applying a single threshold.

Adding predictors can raise R-squared without improving the model usefully

In ordinary least-squares multiple regression with a fixed response and an intercept, adding predictors cannot reduce R-squared: the SSE can fall or stay the same while SSTO stays fixed. Consequently, adding even unhelpful predictors can raise R-squared, so the measure alone is not a sound basis for choosing variables. See Penn State’s multiple regression lesson.

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Check what a software output means by “standard error”

Regression standard error is not the same as a coefficient’s standard error. A coefficient standard error quantifies uncertainty in an estimated coefficient; the regression standard error describes residual scale. Software labels and output layouts vary, so confirm which quantity is reported. Penn State’s STAT 501 notation reference can help distinguish the symbols used in its course materials.

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